大 共 NOTES & MANUALS NOTES & MA 合规风险分析生成式人工智能 税务海关管理应用 约书亚·阿斯萊特，托马斯·坎坦斯,弗朗索瓦·夏斯蒂勒, 埃马纽埃尔·克罗恩，和斯图尔特·汉密尔顿 TNM/2025/13 技术笔记和手册 合规风险分析生成式人工智能 税务海关管理应用 约书亚·阿斯萊特,托马斯·坎坦斯,弗朗索瓦·夏斯蒂勒 ，埃马纽埃尔·克罗恩，和斯图尔特·汉密尔顿 由 Ruud De Mooij 授权发行 本文档（技术笔记和手册）解答以下问题： 如需进一步指导，请参阅 理解人工智能在税务和海关管理中的应用 (阿斯萊特等 2024a)，具体见第 V 节和附件 3。该指南的第 V 节概述了 10 项 促进人工智能（AI）负责任使用的行动。附件 3 提供了一种针对税务和海关管理并适用于评估 AI 使用案例（包括涉及生成式人工智能 GenAI 的案 例）的人工智能风险评估方法。 y 什么是生成式人工智能（GenAl），它如何工作？ y 当前 GenAl 服务如何支持合规性风险分析 ? y 当前有哪些实用案例能证明生成式人工智能的效用 ? y 在使用生成式人工智能进行风险评估时，应遵循哪些指南？ ...

Economic Data - The US GDP for Q2 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted annualized growth rate of +3.0%, exceeding expectations of +2.4%[17] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[19] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[27] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.36% to 6238.01, while the Nasdaq index fell by 2.17% to 20650.13[2] - The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 17 basis points to 4.23%, and the 2-year yield fell by 22 basis points to 3.69%[2] - The US dollar index rose by 1.04% to 98.6900, indicating a stronger dollar amidst economic uncertainty[2] Inflation and Employment - The unemployment rate increased to 4.25% in July, up from 4.11% in the previous month, while the U3 unemployment rate reflects a cooling labor market[29] - Core PCE inflation rose to 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.7%[23] - Job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%, indicating a tightening labor market[25] Policy and Trade - President Trump announced a new tariff list affecting nearly 70 countries, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures and trade negotiations with China[3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by the dual pressures of weakening economic data and ongoing tariff implications, with a 80% probability of a rate cut in September following the weak non-farm payroll data[11]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50%, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [10][32] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience despite a slowdown, with a robust labor market and a slight adjustment in GDP growth forecasts [10][11] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to rising inflationary pressures, prompting central banks to reassess their monetary policies [3][14] Major Asset Trends - U.S. Treasury yields have seen slight declines, with the 10-year yield at 4.38% and the 2-year yield at 3.90% [2] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a minor decrease of 0.15%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 0.21% [2] - Gold prices have dropped by 1.95%, while Brent crude oil prices have risen by 4.13% [2] Economic Data Summary - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, with core retail sales also declining by 0.3% [18] - New housing starts in the U.S. were reported at 1.256 million units, below expectations of 1.357 million [18] - In the UK, inflation slightly decreased to 3.4%, while the Eurozone saw a rebound in construction output [24][26] Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England has kept its policy rate unchanged, but there are indications of potential rate cuts in August due to internal voting disagreements [11][12] - The Bank of Japan has also maintained its current policy stance, but is facing increasing inflationary pressures, leading to a planned reduction in bond purchases starting next year [13][28] Geopolitical Impact - The report notes that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices and shipping costs, raising concerns about a potential "second inflation" scenario [14] - The report emphasizes the need for central banks to reevaluate their inflation outlooks in light of these geopolitical developments [14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the judicial system in Greece, but it suggests that enhancing judicial efficiency could lead to significant economic gains, indicating a positive outlook for potential investments in judicial reforms [6][63]. Core Insights - Greece's judicial system efficiency is among the lowest in the EU, adversely affecting economic performance. The crisis period led to a massive increase in demand for judiciary services due to business and personal insolvencies, which the supply of judicial services could not adequately meet [6][10]. - Policy simulations indicate that judicial reforms could yield substantial gains in investment and productivity, essential for fostering higher economic growth and resilience [10][63]. - The ongoing judicial reforms aim to address key imbalances, focusing on court reorganization, digitalization, and training, but require swift execution to achieve desired outcomes [10][64]. Summary by Sections A. Introduction - The new insolvency framework has reduced the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio from 40% in 2019 to 3% in 2024, but its implementation is hindered by an inefficient judicial system [11]. - Distressed debt amounted to around €70 billion at the end of 2024, representing approximately 30% of GDP [11]. B. Court System in Greece - The civil court system in Greece consists of three tiers: 57 courts of first instance, 19 courts of appeal, and the Supreme Court [16]. - There is a limited level of specialization in civil courts, with judges rotating every four years, which hampers the development of expertise in insolvency matters [19]. C. Judicial System Efficiency - Greece has one of the lowest judicial efficiency rates in the EU, with a clearance rate below 100% for civil and commercial cases, leading to significant backlogs [25]. - The average disposition time for civil and commercial cases in Greece is approximately 1,200 days, compared to the EU average of 446 days [25]. D. Drivers of Judicial Efficiency - Demand for judiciary services surged during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European Debt Crisis (EDC), leading to congestion in the system [30]. - The supply of judicial services has been declining, with inadequate human and financial resources contributing to low resolution rates [38]. E. Impact of Judicial Efficiency on Debt Enforcement and Insolvency Proceedings - Delays in obtaining court orders for debt enforcement can take several years, significantly impacting creditors [48]. - The new insolvency framework's implementation is challenged by procedural inefficiencies, particularly in corporate insolvency cases [50]. F. Impact of Judicial Efficiency on Economic Performance - Judicial efficiency affects economic performance through investment, productivity, and credit markets, with better contract enforcement linked to higher investment levels [51]. - Cross-country studies indicate that improved judicial efficiency correlates with increased foreign direct investment and enhanced firm productivity [53]. G. Conclusions and Policy Implications - Enhancing judicial efficiency is crucial for boosting economic performance, with ongoing reforms prioritizing court reorganization and digitalization [63]. - A multi-pronged approach is necessary to address both quantitative and qualitative aspects of judicial efficiency, including the establishment of commercial courts for specialized judges [64][66].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The productivity growth of the Greek economy has stagnated since the 2010 European Debt Crisis, with resource misallocation worsening particularly in non-tradable services and smaller firms [5][9][12] - Despite reforms in product market regulations, the impact on overall productivity has been mixed, indicating a need for accelerated regulatory reforms to enhance competition and business dynamism [9][31][32] Summary by Sections A. Background - Total factor productivity (TFP) in Greece has continued to decline since the European Debt Crisis, with a 9.7 percent growth in the euro area during the same period [10] - Resource misallocation has been identified as a significant issue, particularly affecting smaller firms and non-tradable service sectors [9][12] B. Resource Misallocation Analysis - Firm-level data from 2009 to 2020 indicates that resource misallocation has worsened, with significant disparities in marginal productivity across firms [19][22][23] - The analysis shows that resource misallocation has cost the Greek economy approximately 3 percent of market-economy-sector GDP annually between 2009 and 2020 [27] - Young firms, while more productive, have not expanded sufficiently to improve overall productivity due to constraints such as limited access to bank credit [29] C. Policy Recommendations - Accelerating regulatory reforms is crucial to improve resource allocation, especially in non-tradable service sectors [32] - The report suggests that labor market and capital market reforms can facilitate the growth of small and young firms, addressing issues such as low labor force participation and high non-performing loans [36] - It emphasizes the need for a systemic evaluation of existing regulations to reduce unnecessary costs and enhance competition [31][35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Thailand's debt ceiling or fiscal policies Core Insights - Thailand's public debt is approaching the ceiling of 70 percent of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal prudence and the adequacy of the current debt ceiling [4][12] - The analysis suggests that the debt limit for Thailand could be in the range of 77-87 percent of GDP, with a midpoint estimate of 82 percent [43] - The current debt ceiling is deemed broadly consistent with the estimated debt limit, but a larger safety margin is recommended to account for contingent liabilities and additional spending needs [46][48] Summary by Sections A. Introduction - Thailand's debt ceiling is set at 70 percent of GDP, raised from 60 percent in 2021 to accommodate COVID-19 related measures [13][14] - The fiscal framework aims to ensure fiscal responsibility and debt sustainability across various public sector entities [13] B. Assessing Thailand's Debt Ceiling - The report employs three approaches to estimate Thailand's debt limit: primary balance and debt dynamics, debt servicing capacity, and impact on growth [30] - The first approach estimates a debt limit range of 80-110 percent of GDP, while the second approach suggests a range of 82-100 percent of GDP based on debt servicing capacity [10][12][37] - The third approach indicates that growth-maximizing debt levels range from 31 to 77 percent of GDP [41] - The analysis concludes that the debt ceiling should be set below the estimated debt limit to provide a safety margin against macroeconomic shocks [45] C. Conclusions and Policy Implications - The report recommends refraining from raising the debt ceiling further and suggests fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal space [52] - It emphasizes the need for improved fiscal rules and transparency to avoid unexpected debt increases [54][55]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - Household sector over-indebtedness is a critical issue in Thailand, with the household debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 95.5 percent in 2021Q1 and remaining around 90 percent thereafter, indicating significant risks to financial stability and economic growth [10][11] - The report presents a comprehensive, multi-pronged approach to household deleveraging in Thailand, drawing on international case studies from Brazil, Hungary, Korea, and Malaysia to inform policy recommendations [4][53] Summary by Sections A. Introduction - The household debt in Thailand has been historically high, peaking at 85.9 percent of GDP in 2015 and increasing to 95.5 percent during the pandemic, with a significant share of unsecured loans [10][11] B. Thailand - The Thai government has implemented various measures to support household debt deleveraging, including broad-based assistance during the pandemic and debt restructuring programs [19][21] - As of 2024Q3, non-performing loan (NPL) ratios increased to 3.28 percent, with credit card loans having the highest NPL ratio at 4.61 percent [17][18] C. Brazil - Brazil's household debt surged during the pandemic, with the Debt Service-To-Income (DSTI) ratio peaking at 28 percent in March 2023, and over 40 percent of consumers defaulting on some form of debt [24][25] - The "Desenrola Brasil" program helped over 15 million people renegotiate R$52 billion in overdue debt, reducing the household DSTI ratio to 26.0 percent by June 2024 [28] D. Malaysia - Malaysia's household debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 66 percent in 2008 to 89 percent in 2015, prompting the central bank to implement measures to curb excessive indebtedness [29][30] - The introduction of tiered pricing on credit card interest rates and stricter credit card requirements helped moderate the growth of household debt [32][34] E. Korea - Korea experienced a credit card boom post-Asian financial crisis, leading to a peak in household debt at 62.5 percent of GDP by 2002, followed by significant policy measures to address the crisis [35][38] - The credit card delinquency ratio dropped to 2.6 percent in 2006 from above 10 percent in 2002-2003 due to effective debt restructuring programs [39] F. Hungary - Hungary's household debt peaked at 39.4 percent of GDP in 2010, with significant risks arising from foreign currency loans, leading to extensive state intervention in the banking sector [40][41] - The conversion of foreign currency loans into local currency and the introduction of debt cap regulations helped stabilize the financial situation [43][44] G. Other International Practices - Various international practices for debt rehabilitation and forgiveness are discussed, including the Individual Voluntary Arrangements in Hong Kong and the Personal Insolvency Act in Ireland [46][47] H. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive approach to household deleveraging is necessary, combining ex-post measures to address existing debt and ex-ante policies to prevent new debt accumulation [53][54] - Emphasis on financial literacy, responsible lending practices, and regulatory measures is crucial to mitigate over-indebtedness risks [57][58]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The report introduces a novel framework called "Debt-at-Risk" to analyze risks surrounding public debt, indicating that global public debt could be approximately 20 percentage points higher than currently projected in severely adverse scenarios [6][12][26] - The framework employs a quantile panel regression to assess how macro-financial and political conditions impact future debt outcomes, highlighting pronounced variations in risks, especially in the upper tail of the distribution [6][12][16] - The analysis indicates that debt-at-risk is a key variable for predicting fiscal crises, outperforming other economic variables as a leading indicator [29][35] Summary by Sections Introduction - Global public debt exceeded $100 trillion in 2024 and is projected to approach 100% of global GDP by 2030, driven by major economies like China and the United States [15] - Rising trade tensions, tighter financial conditions, and spending pressures could exacerbate fiscal deficits and complicate the debt outlook [15][16] Methodology - The "debt-at-risk" framework builds on the "growth-at-risk" methodology and examines the dynamics of global debt distribution over a projection horizon of one to five years [17][18] - The empirical approach uses a location-scale model to estimate the predictive distribution of debt-to-GDP ratios, incorporating various financial, political, and economic variables [18][20] Results - Global debt-at-risk for 2027 is estimated at 117% of GDP, about 20 percentage points higher than previous projections [26] - For advanced economies, the three-year-ahead debt-at-risk in 2024 is estimated at about 131% of GDP, while for emerging markets, it is about 96% of GDP [27] - The report finds that adverse financial developments, such as tighter financial conditions and higher sovereign spreads, disproportionately affect the right tail of the future debt distribution [22][24] Extensions - The report evaluates the usefulness of debt-at-risk in predicting fiscal crises, finding it to be a robust predictor [29] - It expands the sample to include approximately 175 economies, quantifying upside risks to the debt outlook for nearly every economy [30] - The analysis identifies cross-country heterogeneity in debt-at-risk, influenced by initial debt levels and income status [31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The paper finds that stronger firm digitalization is associated with higher tax revenues across countries, with a one-standard-deviation increase in firm digitalization linked to an increase in tax revenues-to-GDP by up to 3 percentage points, conditional on the level of digitalization of tax administration (GovTech) [3][12][17] - Firm digitalization significantly improves tax compliance among high-risk taxpayers, such as small and informal enterprises, particularly in the service sector, indicating that digitalization broadens the corporate tax base and enhances compliance [3][12][14] - There is a significant synergy between firm digitalization and GovTech, underscoring the importance of promoting both to enhance tax collection [3][12][14] Summary by Sections Introduction - The benefits of government digitalization (GovTech) for tax collection have been well acknowledged, with empirical studies showing that digitalizing tax administration can enhance revenue collection significantly [9] - The relationship between firm digitalization and tax revenues remains largely unexplored, necessitating further research to understand its potential impact on tax collection [10][11] Literature Review - A long-standing literature documents benefits from firm digitalization, including higher growth and resilience to shocks, but the impact on tax revenues is less understood [16][18] - Policies to foster firm digitalization include upgrading internet infrastructure and promoting IT skills, which are essential for enhancing tax compliance [19] Empirical Analyses - The report employs both country-level and firm-level analyses to investigate the relationship between firm digitalization and tax revenues [21][22] - Country-level evidence shows that countries with stronger firm digitalization have higher tax revenues, with a strong positive correlation between business digitalization and tax revenues [23][28] - Firm-level evidence indicates that firm digitalization is associated with a higher probability of paying taxes and larger tax payments, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies [49][58] Conclusions - The findings suggest a dual approach of promoting both GovTech and firm digitalization to enhance tax revenues, highlighting that investments in digitalization will yield future tax revenue increases [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry in Andorra, but it suggests the need for investments in higher value-added sectors to enhance growth potential [4][28]. Core Insights - Income in Andorra has stagnated over the last 50 years, with current levels slightly below those from 50 years ago, indicating a lack of growth compared to peer countries [4][9]. - The report highlights that Andorra is the only country among European comparators to have experienced a decline in GDP per capita over the past 50 years, contrasting sharply with the growth seen in countries like Malta and Cyprus [10][15]. - The findings emphasize the importance of creating a conducive environment for investment and productivity to drive income growth in Andorra [4][28]. Summary by Sections A. Income Stagnation - Andorra's income has stagnated since the 1970s, with GDP per capita growth barely matching population growth, leading to stagnation [9][13]. - The country has seen a decline in GDP per capita, unlike peers such as Malta and Cyprus, which have experienced significant income growth due to economic diversification and productivity gains [10][15]. B. Economic Sectors and Productivity - The growth in Andorra has been dominated by low value-added sectors, particularly tourism and real estate, while the financial sector's contribution has halved since the 2015 banking crisis [17][20]. - The limited expansion of new businesses, especially in higher value-added sectors like ICT, has been identified as a constraint to economic growth [20][22]. C. Future Directions for Growth - The report suggests that removing structural bottlenecks and diversifying the economy are crucial for improving GDP per capita in Andorra [28][29]. - Recommendations include enhancing the business environment, addressing housing issues, and attracting talent, particularly in ICT [29][30].