TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT CAMBODIA Scoping the FY2026 Workplan for the General Department of Customs and Excise NOVEMBER 2025 Prepared By Cindy Negus Authoring Department Fiscal Affairs Department ©2026 International Monetary Fund The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of the Cambodia (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such ...

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool Performance Assessment Report AUGUST 2025 Prepared By Michael Hardy, Patrik Berglund, Philippe Rousset, Telita Snyckers, and Graham Whyte Authoring Department Fiscal Affairs Department |1 ©2026 International Monetary Fund The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of the Republic of Armenia (the "TA recipient") in respons ...

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT BURKINA FASO Climate Policy Diagnostic SEPTEMBER 2025 Prepared By Suphachol Suphachalasai, Alberto Garcia Huitron, Michal Pietrkiewicz, Sunalika Singh, and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos Fiscal Affairs Department ©2026 International Monetary Fund The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of Burkina Faso (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. Unless the C ...

Asset Performance - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 4.02%[3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.70% to 6664.01[3] - Gold prices increased by 6.30% to $4224.75[3] Political and Economic Factors - US-China trade tensions remain uncertain, with a new round of negotiations planned for late October[4] - The US government shutdown is expected to last until November, potentially causing a GDP loss of $15 billion per week[11] - The US fiscal deficit for FY2025 is projected to decrease to 5.9%, aided by tariff revenues of $195 billion, a 153% increase from FY2024[13][18] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a resurgence of recession trades due to ongoing US-China tensions and the government shutdown[5][15] - Japan's political instability could impact global markets, particularly affecting TACO trades[14] Key Economic Indicators - Eurozone exports fell by 4.7% year-on-year in August, while imports decreased by 3.8%[22] - Japan's industrial production index was revised down to -1.5% month-on-month, indicating a slowdown[26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report explores the application of Generative AI (GenAI) in tax and customs management for compliance risk analysis, aiming to enhance understanding of GenAI and provide guidelines for its implementation [13]. - GenAI has transformative potential for risk functions in tax and customs management, with the ability to revolutionize the relationship between analysts and technology [14]. - The future of GenAI likely involves integration into digital tools and management agent environments, with custom - tailored solutions emerging for professional fields [78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs II. Understanding Generative AI - GenAI is a type of AI that generates human - like content based on patterns learned from large amounts of data, using advanced machine - learning techniques [18]. - GenAI works by combining technologies for data processing and accessing pre - trained foundation models. It can be conceptually understood through input and parameters, foundation models, capabilities, and interactions [26]. III. Using GenAI for Compliance Risk Analysis Generalization and Understanding of Use Cases - GenAI use cases can be generalized beyond tax and customs administration, divided into four types based on subject - area expertise and autonomy: assistant AI, consultant AI, collaborative AI, and autonomous agent AI [30]. How AI Supports Compliance Risk Analysis - Deployment options for GenAI include commercial clouds, local deployments, and offline open - source options, accessible through APIs and SDKs [38]. - Analysts can access GenAI through tools like chatbots, virtual assistants, configurable agents, and it can be embedded in or replace traditional risk - analysis tools [39]. - GenAI can support risk analysis in four application scenarios: assistance, consultation, collaboration, and autonomous agent (replacement), consistent with compliance risk - management frameworks [40]. IV. Demonstration Using Managed Services - Three demonstrations are provided: natural - language research on the impact of a 25% currency devaluation on tax revenue and compliance; natural - language analysis of a large taxpayer's risk review; and natural - language analysis of distinguishing taxpayer risks [43]. V. Towards Local Applications - Most management agencies may choose local deployment configurations for GenAI to balance cost and security. An example of GenAI integration with the ASYCUDA system is presented, including interactions between AI agents [51]. VI. Operational Use Recommendation Guidelines - Understand when to use GenAI, considering its advantages and limitations, such as supporting open - ended research, using non - structured data, and enabling natural - language interaction [65]. - Clearly define human accountability for AI results, ensuring responsibility throughout the AI development and use process [69]. - Anticipate changes and prioritize employee training, including aspects like AI ethics, information security, and specific AI - tool usage [70]. - Build and protect a compliance information repository, which can enhance GenAI services through RAGs and fine - tuning [71]. - Adopt GenAI gradually and cautiously, starting with risk - assessed use cases and expanding for operational purposes while ensuring compliance with policies [77]. VII. Conclusion - GenAI can play multiple roles in compliance risk analysis, but human responsibility for its responsible use remains crucial. Its impact may be unbalanced globally, and future development will involve integration and customization [78].

Economic Data - The US GDP for Q2 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted annualized growth rate of +3.0%, exceeding expectations of +2.4%[17] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[19] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[27] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.36% to 6238.01, while the Nasdaq index fell by 2.17% to 20650.13[2] - The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 17 basis points to 4.23%, and the 2-year yield fell by 22 basis points to 3.69%[2] - The US dollar index rose by 1.04% to 98.6900, indicating a stronger dollar amidst economic uncertainty[2] Inflation and Employment - The unemployment rate increased to 4.25% in July, up from 4.11% in the previous month, while the U3 unemployment rate reflects a cooling labor market[29] - Core PCE inflation rose to 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.7%[23] - Job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%, indicating a tightening labor market[25] Policy and Trade - President Trump announced a new tariff list affecting nearly 70 countries, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures and trade negotiations with China[3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by the dual pressures of weakening economic data and ongoing tariff implications, with a 80% probability of a rate cut in September following the weak non-farm payroll data[11]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50%, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [10][32] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience despite a slowdown, with a robust labor market and a slight adjustment in GDP growth forecasts [10][11] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to rising inflationary pressures, prompting central banks to reassess their monetary policies [3][14] Major Asset Trends - U.S. Treasury yields have seen slight declines, with the 10-year yield at 4.38% and the 2-year yield at 3.90% [2] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a minor decrease of 0.15%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 0.21% [2] - Gold prices have dropped by 1.95%, while Brent crude oil prices have risen by 4.13% [2] Economic Data Summary - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, with core retail sales also declining by 0.3% [18] - New housing starts in the U.S. were reported at 1.256 million units, below expectations of 1.357 million [18] - In the UK, inflation slightly decreased to 3.4%, while the Eurozone saw a rebound in construction output [24][26] Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England has kept its policy rate unchanged, but there are indications of potential rate cuts in August due to internal voting disagreements [11][12] - The Bank of Japan has also maintained its current policy stance, but is facing increasing inflationary pressures, leading to a planned reduction in bond purchases starting next year [13][28] Geopolitical Impact - The report notes that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices and shipping costs, raising concerns about a potential "second inflation" scenario [14] - The report emphasizes the need for central banks to reevaluate their inflation outlooks in light of these geopolitical developments [14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The productivity growth of the Greek economy has stagnated since the 2010 European Debt Crisis, with resource misallocation worsening particularly in non-tradable services and smaller firms [5][9][12] - Despite reforms in product market regulations, the impact on overall productivity has been mixed, indicating a need for accelerated regulatory reforms to enhance competition and business dynamism [9][31][32] Summary by Sections A. Background - Total factor productivity (TFP) in Greece has continued to decline since the European Debt Crisis, with a 9.7 percent growth in the euro area during the same period [10] - Resource misallocation has been identified as a significant issue, particularly affecting smaller firms and non-tradable service sectors [9][12] B. Resource Misallocation Analysis - Firm-level data from 2009 to 2020 indicates that resource misallocation has worsened, with significant disparities in marginal productivity across firms [19][22][23] - The analysis shows that resource misallocation has cost the Greek economy approximately 3 percent of market-economy-sector GDP annually between 2009 and 2020 [27] - Young firms, while more productive, have not expanded sufficiently to improve overall productivity due to constraints such as limited access to bank credit [29] C. Policy Recommendations - Accelerating regulatory reforms is crucial to improve resource allocation, especially in non-tradable service sectors [32] - The report suggests that labor market and capital market reforms can facilitate the growth of small and young firms, addressing issues such as low labor force participation and high non-performing loans [36] - It emphasizes the need for a systemic evaluation of existing regulations to reduce unnecessary costs and enhance competition [31][35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the judicial system in Greece, but it suggests that enhancing judicial efficiency could lead to significant economic gains, indicating a positive outlook for potential investments in judicial reforms [6][63]. Core Insights - Greece's judicial system efficiency is among the lowest in the EU, adversely affecting economic performance. The crisis period led to a massive increase in demand for judiciary services due to business and personal insolvencies, which the supply of judicial services could not adequately meet [6][10]. - Policy simulations indicate that judicial reforms could yield substantial gains in investment and productivity, essential for fostering higher economic growth and resilience [10][63]. - The ongoing judicial reforms aim to address key imbalances, focusing on court reorganization, digitalization, and training, but require swift execution to achieve desired outcomes [10][64]. Summary by Sections A. Introduction - The new insolvency framework has reduced the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio from 40% in 2019 to 3% in 2024, but its implementation is hindered by an inefficient judicial system [11]. - Distressed debt amounted to around €70 billion at the end of 2024, representing approximately 30% of GDP [11]. B. Court System in Greece - The civil court system in Greece consists of three tiers: 57 courts of first instance, 19 courts of appeal, and the Supreme Court [16]. - There is a limited level of specialization in civil courts, with judges rotating every four years, which hampers the development of expertise in insolvency matters [19]. C. Judicial System Efficiency - Greece has one of the lowest judicial efficiency rates in the EU, with a clearance rate below 100% for civil and commercial cases, leading to significant backlogs [25]. - The average disposition time for civil and commercial cases in Greece is approximately 1,200 days, compared to the EU average of 446 days [25]. D. Drivers of Judicial Efficiency - Demand for judiciary services surged during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European Debt Crisis (EDC), leading to congestion in the system [30]. - The supply of judicial services has been declining, with inadequate human and financial resources contributing to low resolution rates [38]. E. Impact of Judicial Efficiency on Debt Enforcement and Insolvency Proceedings - Delays in obtaining court orders for debt enforcement can take several years, significantly impacting creditors [48]. - The new insolvency framework's implementation is challenged by procedural inefficiencies, particularly in corporate insolvency cases [50]. F. Impact of Judicial Efficiency on Economic Performance - Judicial efficiency affects economic performance through investment, productivity, and credit markets, with better contract enforcement linked to higher investment levels [51]. - Cross-country studies indicate that improved judicial efficiency correlates with increased foreign direct investment and enhanced firm productivity [53]. G. Conclusions and Policy Implications - Enhancing judicial efficiency is crucial for boosting economic performance, with ongoing reforms prioritizing court reorganization and digitalization [63]. - A multi-pronged approach is necessary to address both quantitative and qualitative aspects of judicial efficiency, including the establishment of commercial courts for specialized judges [64][66].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Thailand's debt ceiling or fiscal policies Core Insights - Thailand's public debt is approaching the ceiling of 70 percent of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal prudence and the adequacy of the current debt ceiling [4][12] - The analysis suggests that the debt limit for Thailand could be in the range of 77-87 percent of GDP, with a midpoint estimate of 82 percent [43] - The current debt ceiling is deemed broadly consistent with the estimated debt limit, but a larger safety margin is recommended to account for contingent liabilities and additional spending needs [46][48] Summary by Sections A. Introduction - Thailand's debt ceiling is set at 70 percent of GDP, raised from 60 percent in 2021 to accommodate COVID-19 related measures [13][14] - The fiscal framework aims to ensure fiscal responsibility and debt sustainability across various public sector entities [13] B. Assessing Thailand's Debt Ceiling - The report employs three approaches to estimate Thailand's debt limit: primary balance and debt dynamics, debt servicing capacity, and impact on growth [30] - The first approach estimates a debt limit range of 80-110 percent of GDP, while the second approach suggests a range of 82-100 percent of GDP based on debt servicing capacity [10][12][37] - The third approach indicates that growth-maximizing debt levels range from 31 to 77 percent of GDP [41] - The analysis concludes that the debt ceiling should be set below the estimated debt limit to provide a safety margin against macroeconomic shocks [45] C. Conclusions and Policy Implications - The report recommends refraining from raising the debt ceiling further and suggests fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal space [52] - It emphasizes the need for improved fiscal rules and transparency to avoid unexpected debt increases [54][55]