NOTES HOW TO How to Design and Review Inflation Targets in Emerging Market and Developing Economies Thomas J. Carter, Gunes Kamber, and Julia Otten HTN/2026/04 HOW-TO NOTE How to Design and Review Inflation Targets in Emerging Market and Developing Economies Thomas J. Carter, Gunes Kamber, and Julia Otten How-To Notes offer practical advice from IMF staff members to policymakers on important issues. The views expressed in How to Notes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of ...

F&D Data complement to traditional data in informing policy, not as a substitute. The central focus of monetary policy is stabili- zation of the business cycle, so there is a premium on accurately and quickly assessing turning points. Nontraditional data can be particularly helpful in these circumstances. That's because government statistics on key variables like unemployment, infla- tion, and economic growth are published weeks or even months after the fact. The delay in releasing private company data is o ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking sector in Montenegro Core Insights - The financial intermediation in Montenegro has been declining since independence, with the share of domestic credit to the private sector dropping from 86.5% of GDP in 2008 to 46.4% in 2024, indicating broader economic and institutional challenges [5][12] - The net interest margin (NIM) remains high, ranking among the highest in the Western Balkans, suggesting structural inefficiencies within the financial sector [5][12] - The analysis reveals three key findings: larger banks tend to have lower NIM due to economies of scale and market power; higher asset quality is associated with narrower profit margins, emphasizing the importance of effective credit risk management; and higher operational efficiency correlates with lower NIM, highlighting the significance of cost control [5][16] Summary by Sections Financial Intermediation Status - The report highlights a significant decline in financial intermediation in Montenegro, with domestic credit to the private sector decreasing from 86.5% of GDP in 2008 to 46.4% in 2024, reflecting broader economic challenges [12][29] - The high NIM indicates structural inefficiencies, attributed to a concentrated market structure, high operational costs, and an underdeveloped regulatory framework [12][29] Banking System Indicators - The banking sector consists of 11 commercial banks, with a total asset value of €7.3 billion, representing about 95% of GDP, indicating the sector's dominant role in financial intermediation [27][29] - The average loan interest rates in Montenegro are among the highest in the region, while deposit rates lag behind, leading to a structurally high NIM that supports strong banking profitability [32][33] NIM Influencing Factors - The empirical analysis identifies that larger banks operate with lower NIM due to economies of scale and enhanced market power, allowing them to offer more competitive pricing [16][48] - Credit risk, represented by the ratio of loan loss provisions to total loans, is a significant determinant of NIM, with banks maintaining higher asset quality achieving narrower interest margins [16][48] - Operational efficiency is closely linked to lower NIM, indicating that banks with disciplined cost management can maintain profitability without relying on wider margins [16][49] Policy Implications - The findings suggest the need for policies that support bank sector consolidation, enhance credit risk management practices, and promote improvements in operational efficiency [5][17] - Strengthening regulatory frameworks and expanding credit information infrastructure are essential for fostering prudent lending behavior and reducing costly risk premiums [17]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The research investigates the uneven impacts of land reforms in China, particularly focusing on how these reforms reduce liquidity barriers in land markets and their effects on gender roles in labor mobility [7][10][20]. - The study constructs a novel county-level reform index to track the spatial and temporal diffusion of land reforms, revealing that these reforms facilitate rural women’s transition out of agriculture more than men, while negatively impacting urban women's employment and wage income [7][14][19]. - The analysis indicates that land market frictions and gender roles in market and household production interact to create these uneven effects, suggesting that alleviating these frictions can enhance labor distribution and agricultural productivity for women [7][19]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Structural transformation is a core feature of economic development, and liquidity barriers hinder this process, particularly in developing countries where agricultural employment shares and productivity gaps between agriculture and non-agriculture are significant [9][10]. Land System and Reform Index - The report discusses China's land system and the establishment of a county-level land reform index, which captures the diffusion of land reforms over time and space, focusing on the impacts of the Rural Land Contracting Law and land use rights reform [13][14][24]. Empirical Analysis - The empirical analysis shows that land reforms significantly improve land security for farmers, with evidence indicating a notable reduction in land redistribution events over time, thus enhancing the stability of land rights [46][48]. - The findings reveal that land reforms have a pronounced positive effect on rural women's participation in non-agricultural employment and migration, with women showing a higher likelihood of transitioning to non-agricultural jobs compared to men [55][56]. Conclusion - The report concludes that land reforms contribute to a decrease in agricultural productivity gaps and enhance labor mobility, particularly for women, while also highlighting the need for further research on the implications of land market frictions on gender-specific labor distribution [19][20].

技术援助报告 致谢 全球公共财政伙伴关系 摩尔多瓦共和国 推进审计改革 2025年11月 由苏珊·贝茨编制 作者部门 财政事务部 ©2026 国际货币基金组织 本报告内容构成国际货币基金组织（IMF）工作人员向摩尔多瓦当局（"技术援助接受方"）提供的专业技术建议，回应了 其技术援助请求。本报告（全部或部分）或其摘要可由IMF向IMF执行董事及其工作人员、以及其他技术援助接受方机关 或机构披露，根据其要求，还可向对技术援助有合法兴趣的世界银行工作人员和其他技术援助提供者和捐赠者披露，除 非技术援助接受方明确反对此类披露（见 员工技术援助信息传播操作指南 披露此报告（全部或部分）或其摘要给IMF 以外的各方，但仅限于TA受益机构的机构或工具、世界银行工作人员、其他技术援助提供者和有合法利益捐赠者，则需 要TA受益机构和IMF财政事务部的明确同意。 这项技术援助（TA）得到了财务支持，由…… 全球公共财政伙伴关系（GPFP） . 国际货币基金组织，IMF出版物，邮编92780，美国 华盛顿特区20090，电话：（1）202.623.7430 传真 ：（1）202.623.7201 publications@IMF. ...

技术援助报告 刚果民主共和国 具体化《法定特殊银行救助机制》 十月 2025 准备人： David Blache（国际货币基金组织负责人），Thibault Godbillon（国际货币基金组织外部专家） 货币与资本市场部 ©2026 国际货币基金组织 本文件的全部或部分内容构成国际货币基金组织工作人员为响应中刚（"CD受益人"）的技术援助请求而提供的技术咨 询。除非CD受益人明确反对此类披露，否则该文件（全部或部分）或其摘要可由国际货币基金组织向中刚的基金组织 执行董事、其他执行董事及其工作人员、CD受益人其他机构或实体披露，并应其请求，向世界银行工作人员及其他对 CD受益人具有合法利益的技术援助提供者和捐赠者披露（详见）。 员工操作指南：能力发展信息传播 发布或披露本 报告（全部或部分）给国际货币基金组织（IMF）以外的各方，包括但不限于CD受益国的机构或机构、世界银行工作 人员、其他技术援助提供者和有合法利益的捐助者，需获得CD受益方和国际货币基金组织货币与资本市场部门的明确 同意。 这份出版物中表达的分析和政策考量是国际货币基金组织货币和资本市场部门的观点。 国际货币基金组织，IMF出版物 邮政信箱9 ...

笔记与手册笔记与手册 技术 技术 气候变化风险 金融监管者和监督者的角色 尼拉·卡诺尔卡、大卫·卢卡斯·鲁泽梅克和彼得·温莎 TNM/2026/01 9798229030137 纸张 9798229030281 (ePub)电子书格式 9798229030243 （网络PDF） 技术说明书和手册 气候变化风险 金融监管者和监督者的角色 尼拉·卡诺尔卡、大卫·卢卡斯·鲁泽梅克和彼得·温莎 本文反映了国际货币基金组织货币和资本市场部金融监管和法规部门的贡献。它是在Jay Surti和Fabiana Melo的指导下准备的。作者感谢Caio Fons eca Ferreira、Alexis Boher和Leonard Chumo就讨论和意见提供了帮助。撰写团队感谢Marina Moretti提供思想指导和清晰阐述，感谢审稿人的宝贵 意见，以及在整个项目过程中的行政协调员们提供的出色支持。 © 2026 国际货币基金组织 出版物目录数据 国际货币基金组织 图书馆 姓名：Khanolkar, Nila，作者 | Rozumek, David Lukaš，作者 | Windsor, Peter J，作者 | 国际货币基金 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The Australian labor market has shown remarkable resilience despite economic slowdown, with strong employment growth and low unemployment rates, but limited wage pressure [5][15][16]. - Recent dynamics reflect a combination of cyclical and structural forces, with indicators like job vacancies and unemployment rates potentially overstating cyclical tightness due to sectoral shifts, particularly in healthcare [5][16]. - The rapid growth in labor supply is driven by structural trends and cyclical responses to high living costs and interest rates, leading to increased participation rates and part-time employment [5][16][28]. - Strong labor supply and concentrated demand in specific industries have suppressed wage pressures, suggesting a temporary reduction in the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) [5][16][30]. Summary by Sections A. Overview of Australia's Labor Market Dynamics - The Australian labor market has demonstrated significant resilience post-pandemic, with labor demand surging after the easing of restrictions, leading to record-high job vacancies [17][19]. - Despite a slowdown in economic growth, robust labor demand and supply have supported stable employment growth and kept unemployment rates low [17][19]. B. Paradox 1: Low Unemployment and High Job Vacancy Rates Amid Economic Slowdown - Unemployment rates reached a record low of 3.4% in July 2022, gradually rising to 4.5%, still below pre-pandemic levels [32]. - Job vacancy rates remain significantly higher than the highest levels seen in the decade before the pandemic, indicating persistent labor market tightness [32][40]. C. Paradox 2: Continued Strong Labor Force Participation Rate Post-Pandemic - Labor force participation rates have shown a long-term upward trend, accelerated by structural changes and cyclical developments, particularly due to rising living costs and high interest rates [49][60]. - The influx of migrants has also supported labor force participation, with net migration trends normalizing post-pandemic [54][60]. D. Paradox 3: Slow Wage Growth Despite Tight Labor Market Conditions - Wage growth has remained subdued despite tight labor market conditions, with real wage growth reaching near-record lows in 2022 and 2023 [63][68]. - Structural and cyclical shifts may explain the slow wage growth, with productivity declines and increased labor supply contributing to reduced wage pressures [64][65][70].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The study investigates the impact of Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) and financial market pressures on interbank contagion risk, highlighting that strong capital and liquidity buffers in banks can significantly reduce contagion risk through interbank exposures. In contrast, pressures from NBFIs amplify systemic risk during heightened market volatility [4][8][26]. - The findings emphasize the need to integrate contagion models into systemic stress testing and to design macroprudential policies that encompass the entire financial ecosystem, considering the amplification risks posed by banks' exposures to NBFIs [4][26]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the increasing complexity of risk transmission within the financial system as non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) expand their operations, necessitating a better understanding of how risks migrate from outside the banking system to banks and propagate through interbank networks [12][14]. Data - The analysis utilizes regulatory data from the European Central Bank (ECB) to construct an interbank network, focusing on large exposure reports. The dataset includes 72 significant financial institutions representing approximately 90% of the total assets in the Eurozone banking system [34][35]. Model - The contagion model is based on the CoMap framework, which assesses and quantifies the chain reactions of hypothetical defaults within the interbank exposure network. It captures the impact of a bank's default on its counterparties through credit risk and funding disruption channels [39][40]. Results - The baseline analysis indicates that under normal conditions, the contagion risk from direct and indirect interbank exposures remains limited due to robust capital and liquidity buffers. However, significant heterogeneity in systemic risk characteristics is observed among different banking business models [17][21]. - In stress scenarios, the analysis reveals that the potential for systemic risk amplification increases significantly when shocks originate from NBFIs or are exacerbated by market volatility, leading to substantial capital losses across the banking system [20][21][26]. Policy Implications - The results underscore the importance of macroprudential regulation that considers the interconnectedness between banks and NBFIs, as well as the systemic risks posed by market shocks. It advocates for a comprehensive approach to monitoring and managing risks within the financial ecosystem [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The study investigates optimal currency and exchange rate policies in small open economies facing oil price shocks, emphasizing the need for a combination of interest rate policy and foreign exchange intervention (FXI) to achieve optimal resource allocation [4][16]. - It highlights that suboptimal regimes, such as free floating or simple pegging, can lead to approximately 2% loss in consumption equivalent welfare for calibrated oil-exporting countries, with pegged regimes, especially those with fuel subsidies, potentially outperforming free floating [4][25]. - The report underscores the critical role of FXI in breaking the unstable link between real commodity shocks and financial risk premiums, suggesting that oil price shocks inherently shift net foreign asset positions, necessitating FXI to mitigate financial imbalances [4][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Introduction - Oil and energy price volatility poses significant policy challenges for oil-exporting economies, with historical events like the 2008 oil price boom and subsequent crashes impacting trade balances and economic activity [16][17]. - The report aims to explore how oil-exporting countries should manage their exchange rates in response to oil price fluctuations, filling a gap in the literature regarding the optimal response to supply-side commodity shocks [17]. Section 2: Literature Review - The paper situates itself at the intersection of macroeconomic management of commodity price shocks and optimal exchange rate policy under financial frictions, expanding standard models to include oil as a productive input [28][29]. - It reviews existing literature on the role of monetary policy in mitigating the impacts of oil shocks and the necessity of FXI in addressing financial market distortions [28][31]. Section 3: Model Setup - The model incorporates two key frictions: sticky prices in the domestic sector and endogenous UIP risk premiums in segmented financial markets, demonstrating how real oil shocks create financial imbalances that require FXI [17][33]. - The analysis reveals that optimal policy responses involve adjusting monetary policy to close output gaps and inflation while using FXI to alleviate financial frictions exacerbated by oil shocks [22][25]. Section 4: Quantitative Results - The calibrated model for oil-exporting countries indicates that FXI provides a stronger rationale than standard external financial shocks, with suboptimal policies like currency pegs or energy subsidies leading to significant welfare losses [25][26]. - The findings suggest that combining pegged exchange rates with energy price stabilization rules can mitigate domestic cost pressures more effectively than pegging alone in oil-intensive economies [25][26]. Section 5: Policy Implications - The report concludes that maintaining an optimal exchange rate is crucial for effective consumption levels and production structure, with FXI serving as a valuable tool for central banks to manage financial market risks arising from oil price volatility [20][24].