大家乐集团：Gaining market share under a weak macro

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Cafe De Coral (CDC) despite trimming earnings forecasts due to macroeconomic challenges [2][6]. Core Insights - CDC has outperformed the industry in a weak macro environment, with a notable recovery in fast food sales and a resilient same-store sales (SSS) recovery rate of 88% in FY24 [2][6]. - The company is expected to continue reclaiming market share through innovative product launches and improved marketing strategies [2]. - The report anticipates a SSS recovery rate of 88% in 1H25E and 90% in 2H25E, with potential acceleration in the second half of 2025 due to government initiatives [2][6]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue increased by 8% YoY to HK$ 8.7 billion, while net profit surged by 200% YoY to HK$ 331 million [6][12]. - The report projects revenue growth to HK$ 9.062 billion in FY25E, with a net profit of HK$ 381 million [7][12]. - The company declared a final dividend of HK$ 0.42, resulting in a yield of approximately 7% [6]. Market Segments - In the Hong Kong market, fast food has shown resilience with a recovery rate of 102% during Jan-Feb 2024, outperforming other segments [2]. - The Mainland China market saw a 15% YoY sales increase in FY24, driven by a strong SSSG of 11% and store growth of 12% [2][6]. Valuation - The target price is revised down to HK$ 11.15 from HK$ 14.82, reflecting a 28.4% upside from the current price of HK$ 8.68 [4][6]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 13x FY25E, with an expected yield of 8% [6][10].