2025 年 9 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - PMI 显示经济回升，但仍有滞涨压力 美国 8 月服务业 PMI 扩张速度加快，产需双双大幅改善，但就业仍在收缩，物价 仍然高企。制造业 PMI 收缩幅度趋缓但低于市场预期，新订单指数扩张速度创年 初以来新高。物价涨幅延续放缓但仍显著高于疫情后平均水平，就业指数保持低 迷。美联储对双重目标的主要风险研判已从通胀转向更加平衡，因过去数月非农 数据大幅调整显示劳动力市场明显降温，但通胀尚未大幅反弹说明关税对通胀推 升作用可能不及预期。本周五非农就业数据是美联储议息决定的关键，若往月数 据再次大幅下修和 8 月新增非农就业少于 5 万（失业率升至 4.3%），那么美联储 可能在 9 月或 10 月重启降息，12 月再次降息，明年进一步降息两次。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMB ...

Market Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,059, down 1.12% for the day but up 24.92% year-to-date [1] - The US markets, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced gains of 0.77% and 0.83% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.98% [1] - Chinese stock markets faced declines, particularly in hardware technology, with the Shenzhen Composite Index down 2.05% [1][3] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.42%, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index fell by 1.58% [2] - The hardware technology sector in China led the declines, while sectors such as retail and food saw gains [3] - The US market saw a rise in consumer discretionary, banking, and solar sectors, while utilities and AI-related stocks lagged [3] Company Analysis - Salesforce reported a 10% year-on-year revenue growth to $10.2 billion for Q2 FY26, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 12% to $2.8 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus [4] - The company’s cRPO grew by 11% to $29.4 billion, driven by strong orders from small and medium-sized enterprises [4] - Salesforce's AI and data cloud business saw an impressive annual recurring revenue growth of approximately 120% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Geely Automobile, Li Auto, and Tencent, with target prices indicating significant upside potential [5] - Geely Automobile is rated "Buy" with a target price of 25.00 HKD, representing a 37% upside from its current price of 18.24 HKD [5] - Tencent is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 705.00 HKD, suggesting an 18% upside from its current price of 599.50 HKD [5]

2025 年 9 月 4 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,343 | -0.60 | 26.34 | | 恒生国企 | 9,050 | -0.64 | 24.14 | | 恒生科技 | 5,684 | -0.78 | 27.21 | | 上证综指 | 3,814 | -1.16 | 13.78 | | 深证综指 | 2,380 | -1.41 | 21.60 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,899 | 0.95 | 35.38 | | 美国道琼斯 | 45,271 | -0.05 | 6.41 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,448 | 0.51 | 9.63 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 21,498 | 1.02 | 11.32 | | 德国 DAX | 23,595 | 0.46 | 18.51 | | ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, in the IG new issuance pipeline, there were 6 Japanese and 1 Indian bonds. As a result, the secondary IG market in Japan space was under pressure amid heavy supply. New issues last week such as JERA/HOKKEL/MITSCO widened 2-4bps. Perpetuals were also under pressure amid the bear-steepening in USD yield curve. Japanese insurance hybrids/AT1s were 0.1-0.3pt lower amid better selling from AMs in mostly on- ...

招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,497 | -0.47 | 27.10 | | 恒生国企 | 9,108 | -0.15 | 24.94 | | 恒生科技 | 5,728 | -1.22 | 28.21 | | 上证综指 | 3,858 | -0.45 | 15.11 | | 深证综指 | 2,414 | -2.04 | 23.35 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,872 | -2.85 | 34.12 | | 美国道琼斯 | 45,296 | -0.55 | 6.47 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,416 | -0.69 | 9.08 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 21,280 | -0.82 | 10.20 | | 德国 DAX | 23,487 | -2.29 | 17.97 | | 法国 CAC | 7,654 | -0.70 | 3.71 | | 英国富时 100 | 9,117 | ...

目标价 173.00 人民币 (旧目标价 176.00 人民币) 潜在升幅 19.1% 当前股价 145.20 人民币 上半年业绩稳健；维持"买入"评级 2025 年 9 月 3 日 豪威集团公布 2025 年上半年业绩。公司上半年收入同比增长 15%至 140 亿元人民 币，主要受模拟解决方案（同比+21%）与分销业务（同比+42%）的双位数增长驱 动。毛利率基本稳定在 30.5%（同比提升 1.3 个百分点）。净利润同比大幅增长 48%至 20 亿元人民币。受经营杠杆效应和成本管控影响，净利率提升至 14.5% （去年同期为 11.3%）。公司核心业务 CIS（图像传感器）销售额创 103 亿元人民 币的新高（同比增长 11%），其中汽车、安防、新兴物联网及医疗 CIS 分别增长 30%、17%、249%和 68%，抵消了手机 CIS 的疲软（同比下滑 19%）。我们认为 公司在 CIS 市场占据有利地位，尤其是在汽车和医疗 CIS 等市场均保持份额领先。 预计 2025/26 财年收入将同比增长 18%、25%，净利润增长 24%、50%。维持"买 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 入"评级 ...

2025 年 9 月 2 日 深南电路发布了强劲的 2025 年二季度业绩。公司收入增速提升，同时利润率改 善，尤其是核心 PCB 业务表现亮眼。二季度收入为 57 亿元人民币，创历史新 高，同、环比增长 30%、19%，超出彭博一致预期 6%。净利润为 8.69 亿元， 同、环比增 43%、77%，超出彭博一致预期 41%。毛利率环比提升 2.8 个百分 点至 27.6%，净利率创下 15.5%的历史新高（去年同期、上季度分别为 13.9%、 10.3%）。鉴于公司在 AI 服务器、数据中心及汽车电子等高增长领域的战略布 局，维持"买入"评级。公司的泰国产线、南通四期项目及现有工厂技改带来产 能的持续扩张，叠加研发投入稳定在销售额的 6%-7%，这将持续巩固公司的竞 争优势，并支撑其长期增长。目标价上调至 235 元人民币。 财务资料 | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 13,526 | 17,907 | 22,676 ...

2025 年 9 月 2 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 北方华创 (002371 CH) 北方华创 (002371 CH) - 长期增 响；维持"买入"评级 长期增长轨迹稳健，无惧季节性波动影响；维持 "买入"评级 北方华创发布了稳健的 2025 年二季度业绩，公司收入为 79 亿元人民币，同比增 长 22%，环比下降 3%，主要因一季度收入为高基数（历史第二高）所导致的季 节性波动。毛利率收窄至 41.3%（同比下降 6.0 个百分点、环比下降 1.7 个百分 点），受电子元器件业务利润率较低的影响所致。净利润为 16 亿元（同比下降 2%、环比增长 3%）。净利率提升至 20.5%（2024 年、25 年一季度分别为 18.8%、19.3%），显示公司出色的运营与成本管控能力。我们持续看好公司的 成长轨迹，公司在中国半导体设备国产替代进程中占据重要的战略地位。我们预 计 2025/26 年收入将同比增长 32%/26%。重申"买入"评级，目标价上调至 460 元人民币。 | 财务资料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 12.3, reflecting a potential upside of 28.1% from the current price of HKD 9.60 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 68% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1.57 billion in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by a significant increase in automotive product solutions, which grew by 250% [1][7]. - Despite a decline in gross margin by 13.7 percentage points due to changes in product mix, the overall gross margin remains high at 65.4% [1][7]. - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, leading to a slight increase in net loss to RMB 5.2 billion in the first half of the year [1][7]. - The management emphasizes the competitive advantage in the accelerating adoption of assisted driving technologies in China [1][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a steady increase from RMB 1.55 billion in FY23A to RMB 8.73 billion in FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of 71.3% in FY23A and 53.6% in FY24A [2][11]. - Gross margin is expected to stabilize above 50% in the long term, with specific forecasts of 63.8% for FY25E and 58.1% for FY26E [2][11]. - The net profit is projected to remain negative in the coming years, with estimates of RMB -6.93 billion in FY25E and RMB -1.96 billion in FY26E [2][11]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of 45.8% in basic assisted driving solutions and 32.4% in overall assisted driving solutions, reinforcing its leadership in the Chinese automotive technology market [1][7]. - The product solutions segment is anticipated to be the core growth engine, with revenue expected to reach RMB 2.1 billion this year, driven by a shift towards higher-value products [7]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include SAIC QIJUN I HLDG LTD with 9.3% and GIL TRUST LIMITED with 8.1% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown strong performance with a 31.3% absolute return over the past month and a 26.8% return over the past three months [5].

港股分类指数上日表现 2025 年 9 月 2 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | 升跌（%） | | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,617 | 2.15 | 27.70 | | 恒生国企 | 9,122 | 1.95 | 25.13 | | 恒生科技 | 5,799 | 2.20 | 29.79 | | 上证综指 | 3,876 | 0.46 | 15.63 | | 深证综指 | 2,465 | 0.87 | 25.92 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,956 | 2.29 | 38.05 | | 美国道琼斯 | 45,545 | 0.00 | 7.05 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,460 | 0.00 | 9.84 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 21,456 | 0.00 | 11.11 | | 德国 DAX | 24,037 | 0.57 | 20.74 ...