2025 年 6 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,689 | 0.67 | 38.96 | | 恒生国企 | 8,597 | 0.82 | 49.04 | | 恒生科技 | 5,187 | 1.05 | 37.80 | | 上证综指 | 3,382 | 0.65 | 13.67 | | 深证综指 | 1,988 | 0.95 | 8.15 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,018 | 0.39 | 6.68 | | 美国道琼斯 | 42,582 | 0.89 | 12.98 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,025 | 0.96 | 26.32 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 19,631 | 0.94 | 30.77 | | 德国 DAX | 23,269 | -0.35 | 38.91 | | 法国 CAC | 7,538 | -0.69 | -0.07 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 短期面临回调压力，寻找优秀公司的买点 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 三生制药 | 1530 HK | 买入 | 6,355.6 | 28.32 | 36% | 4.9 | 15.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | | 百济神州 | ONC US | 买入 | 28,102.4 | 359.47 | 42% | 133.1 | 32.0 | 92.6 | 70.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | | 信达生物 | 1801 HK | 买入 | 16,327.4 | 94.74 | 22% ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,530 | 1.26 | 38.03 | | 恒生国企 | 8,527 | 1.38 | 47.82 | | 恒生科技 | 5,133 | 0.88 | 36.36 | | 上证综指 | 3,360 | -0.07 | 12.94 | | 深证综指 | 1,969 | -0.60 | 7.14 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,010 | -0.84 | 6.27 | | 美国道琼斯 | 42,207 | 0.08 | 11.99 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,968 | -0.22 | 25.12 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 19,447 | -0.51 | 29.55 | | 德国 DAX | 23,351 | 1.27 | 39.39 | | ...

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,238, down 1.99% for the day but up 36.31% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.42% on the day, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 35.17% [1] - The US markets remained stable, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 unchanged, showing year-to-date increases of 11.89% and 25.39% respectively [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 1.77% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 39.60% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial and Commercial Index fell by 2.20%, while the Hang Seng Utilities Index saw a smaller decline of 1.12% [2] Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with predictions of two rate cuts later in the year due to economic slowdown and inflation concerns [4] - The US economy is facing risks of stagflation, with a projected decrease in economic growth and an increase in unemployment rates [4] - The Japanese government is adjusting its bond issuance strategy to alleviate upward pressure on long-term bond yields [3] Company Analysis: 大家乐 (Cafe de Coral) - The company is facing significant challenges, with same-store sales in Hong Kong and mainland China continuing to decline, leading to a downward revision of growth forecasts from 2% to 0% for the fiscal year 2026 [4][5] - Despite efforts to enhance customer traffic through new product offerings and membership programs, sales growth remains constrained by external competition and changing consumer behavior [5] - The company has lowered its profit margin expectations due to rising operational costs and competitive pressures, with a projected net profit decline of 30% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 [6][7] Investment Ratings and Targets - The investment rating for 大家乐 has been downgraded to "Hold," with a target price set at 6.52 HKD, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's performance amid a challenging market environment [6][7] - The company's fiscal year 2025 sales fell by 1.4% to 8.6 billion HKD, with net profit declining by 25% to 233 million HKD, which was below expectations [6][7]

2025 年 6 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 美联储短期保持观望 美联储决议声明变化较小，保持政策利率不变符合预期，认为经济不确定性小 幅下降但仍居高。点阵图变化指向经济滞涨风险，今年两次降息预测中值不 变，经济增速预测中值下降，失业率和通胀预测中值抬升。鲍威尔在记者会言 论显示鹰派立场，他认为关税将导致未来数月通胀上升，目前劳动力市场仍然 稳健，不必急于降息，将在确认通胀开始下行后再开始降息。我们维持美联储 9 月开始降息、11 月或 12 月再降息一次的预测。6-8 月，由于油价反弹和关税 传导，通胀可能短期反弹。9 月后，随着需求更明显放缓，经济和就业可能进 一步走弱，通胀可能见顶回落。长期国债收益率可能先升后降，10 年国债收益 率年底降至 4.2%左右，经济放缓推动收益率回落，但政府债务问题和特朗普政 策不稳定性限制其下行空间。美元指数可能从目前 99 降至今年末 97。近期中 东地缘冲突对美元具有支撑作用，但特朗普政策不稳定性和国际投资者降低美 元资产超配程度可能推动美元进一步走弱。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.co ...

Macro Economic Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,711, down 1.12% for the day but up 39.09% year-to-date [1] - The US retail sales unexpectedly fell in May, with significant declines in durable goods and restaurant services, while some categories like clothing and online shopping saw a rebound [4] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in June and July, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September and November or December due to economic slowdown and inflation concerns [4] Industry Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.67% and is up 42.12% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index fell by 1.98%, down 6.59% year-to-date [2] - The semiconductor industry saw significant gains, with the A-share market reflecting strong performance in this sector [3] Company Focus - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 48% [5] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 50% upside [5] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) has a target price of 40.61, suggesting an 18% upside from its current price of 34.50 [5] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 660.00, indicating a potential upside of 30% [5] - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 155.50, representing a 37% upside [5]

年 6 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 零售和工业走弱，联储将保持观望 美国 5 月零售超预期下跌，汽车、建筑材料、电子、家电等耐用品零售和餐饮 服务消费明显放缓，运动休闲商品、服装、日用品和网购等有所回升。工业产 出延续放缓，公用事业增速高位回落，制造业小幅反弹。由于中东冲突推升油 价和关税影响部分商品价格，第三季度美国通胀可能反弹，但经济可能延续放 缓，美联储面临去通胀和保就业的两难，预计 6 月和 7 月将保持利率不变。第 三季度后，美国通胀可能见顶回落，就业市场走弱，美联储可能在 9 月降息一 次，11 月或 12 月再降息一次。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报告 1 MN (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 同比(%, 2021/2022年为2/3年平均，3M MA ...

2025 年 6 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,980 | -0.34 | 40.67 | | 恒生国企 | 8,695 | -0.40 | 50.73 | | 恒生科技 | 5,292 | -0.15 | 40.58 | | 上证综指 | 3,387 | -0.04 | 13.86 | | 深证综指 | 2,011 | -0.12 | 9.39 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,050 | -0.36 | 8.38 | | 美国道琼斯 | 42,515 | 0.00 | 12.80 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,033 | 0.00 | 26.48 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 19,701 | 0.00 | 31.24 | | 德国 DAX | 23,391 | -1.30 | 39.63 | | 法国 CAC | 7 ...

招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年6月17日 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市盈率(倍) | 市净率(倍) | ROE (%) | 股息率 | 分析师 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | (十亿美元) | (百万美元) | （当地货币)（当地货币) | 空 | 间 | FY24A | FY25E | FY24A | FY24A | FY24A | | | 长 | 仓 | 吉利汽车 | 买入 | 史迹/ ...

2025 年 6 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 中国经济 - 复苏仍不平衡 5 月经济数据显示经济复苏仍不平衡，在耐用品以旧换新政策支撑下，社会 零售额显著超出市场预期，但房地产销量跌幅扩大，工业产出增速普遍放缓。 下半年，随着出口走弱和耐用品以旧换新政策效果减弱，经济可能面临阻力。 我们预计 GDP 增速将从 2025 年第一季度 5.4%放缓至第二季度 4.9%和下半 年 4.7%。如果中美能够初步达成贸易协议，中国可能聚焦经济再平衡，加大 财政扩张和消费提振力度，推进制造业去产能。（链接） | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 42,969 | 0.93 | 44.08 | | 恒生工商业 | 13,448 | 0.55 | 45.64 | | 恒生地产 | 17,509 | 1.60 | -4.47 | | 恒生公用事业 | 36,534 | 0.10 | 11.13 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 招银国际研究 ...