每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,859 | 2.42 | 28.91 | | 恒生国企 | 9,233 | 2.45 | 26.65 | | 恒生科技 | 5,933 | 3.00 | 32.79 | | 上证综指 | 3,864 | 0.63 | 15.28 | | 深证综指 | 2,420 | 0.98 | 23.65 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,993 | 1.98 | 39.78 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,707 | 1.12 | 9.78 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,735 | 1.07 | 14.51 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,991 | 1.37 | 19.06 | | 德国 DAX | 24,259 | 1.80 | 21.85 | | ...

招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年10月20日 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市盈率(倍) | 市净率(倍) | ROE (%) | 股息率 | 分析师 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | (十亿美元) | (百万美元) | （当地货币)（当地货币) | 空 | 间 | FY24A | FY25E | FY24A | FY24A | FY24A | | | 长 | 仓 | 吉利汽车 | 买入 | 史迹 ...

Market Overview - The global stock markets experienced mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,247, down 2.48% for the day but up 25.86% year-to-date [1] - The US markets showed slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.52% and the S&P 500 up 0.53% [1] - The Chinese stock market saw significant declines, particularly in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and industrial sectors, while defensive sectors like telecommunications and utilities outperformed [3] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Financial Index fell by 1.72% while the Hang Seng Industrial Index dropped by 3.04% [2] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong led the declines, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards defensive stocks [3] Investment Opportunities - The software and IT services industry is highlighted for its potential investment opportunities, particularly in companies that are enhancing their strategic collaborations and commercializing AI applications [4] - Specific companies to watch include Alibaba (BABA US), Baidu (BIDU US), Tencent (700 HK), and Kuaishou (1024 HK) for their strong growth in cloud services and AI-related revenues [4] - In the engineering machinery sector, a recovery in non-earthmoving machinery sales in September suggests the beginning of an upward cycle, with companies like Zoomlion (1157 HK), Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH) recommended for investment [4] Economic Indicators - The Chinese ETF market has seen a net inflow of nearly 90 billion yuan since the National Day holiday, indicating a trend of investors buying on dips, particularly in technology and high-dividend sectors [3] - The Chinese central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with potential rate cuts anticipated in November or December [3]

Company Analysis - iQIYI (IQ US; Buy; Target Price: $2.70) is expected to have total revenue in Q3 2025 remain flat quarter-on-quarter, with a year-on-year decline of 8% to 6.64 billion yuan, supported by a strong content reserve leading to a 3% quarter-on-quarter growth in membership business [2] - The non-GAAP operating loss for iQIYI in Q3 2025 is projected to be 23 million yuan, compared to operating profits of 369 million yuan and 59 million yuan in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 respectively, primarily due to adjustments in non-core businesses and increased content investment during the summer peak season [2] - The revenue forecast for FY25-27 remains largely unchanged, but the non-GAAP operating profit forecast has been adjusted down by 0.4-2% to account for increased content investment [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,889, down 0.09% for the day but up 29.06% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.18% for the day but is up 34.36% year-to-date [2] - The A-share market saw gains, with coal, banking, and industrial trade sectors leading the rise, while steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals lagged [4] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 15.82 billion HKD, with Zijin Mining, Xiaomi, and Alibaba seeing the largest net purchases, while SMIC, Giant Biogene, and Laopu Gold experienced significant net sales [4]

Fixed Income Credit Commentary CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, the new KEBHNB Float 28/KEBHNB 30 tightened 3-5bps from RO at SOFR+60/T5+43. In KR secondary space, KOROIL/HYUELE/ HYNMTR belly bonds were 1-3bps tighter, while PKX was 1-2bps wider. AU/JP financial T2s were lackluster and closed mostly unchanged in spreads. On the other hand, Japanese AT1s and insurance hybrids were 0.1-0.3pt firmer driven by PB buying. Yankee AT1s like ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,911, up 1.84% for the day and 29.17% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.57% for the day and 35.97% year-to-date [1] - The Chinese stock market rebounded, with sectors like consumer discretionary and staples leading gains, while telecommunications, utilities, and energy lagged [3] - Southbound capital saw a net sell of 5.44 billion HKD, with notable net sells in Hang Seng China Enterprises, Tracker Fund, and SMIC, while Alibaba, Huahong Semiconductor, and Xiaomi received significant net buys [3] Group 2: Economic Insights - The Chinese economy shows signs of weak credit demand, with M1 growth indicating improved business activity, while the central bank is expected to maintain a loose liquidity policy [4][5] - CPI showed a slight recovery, indicating a slow revival in consumer demand, while PPI decline has narrowed due to rising upstream mining prices [4] - The report anticipates a policy easing window in Q4 2025, with expected reductions in LPR and reserve requirement ratios to support consumption and the real estate market [5] Group 3: Company Analysis - Futu Holdings - Futu Holdings is a leading technology-driven financial services platform, covering eight major markets and providing services like securities trading and wealth management [6] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% in revenue and 14% in Non-GAAP net profit from FY25 to FY28, driven by growth in asset clients and improved operational efficiency [5][6] - Futu's AUM in virtual assets reached 4 billion HKD in Q2 2025, with projections indicating it could contribute 2.4 to 3.1 billion HKD in incremental revenue by 2027 [7] Group 4: Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Futu Holdings with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 224 USD, supported by its global expansion and strong growth in core business segments [6][7] - The company is currently trading at a significant discount compared to peers, with a P/E ratio of 19x/17x for FY25E/FY26E, presenting an attractive entry point for investors [7]

Market Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,441, down 1.73% for the day but up 26.83% year-to-date [1] - The US markets experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones up 0.44% and the S&P 500 down 0.16% [1] - The Chinese stock market saw a third consecutive day of decline, particularly in sectors like materials, healthcare, and information technology, while utilities, telecommunications, and financials outperformed [3] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Financial Index remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.01%, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index fell by 2.70% [2] - The public utilities sector showed resilience with a 0.66% increase, contrasting with the declines in real estate and industrial sectors [2] Company Insights - J&T Express reported a 23% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q3 2025, driven by a significant 79% growth in Southeast Asia, while growth in China slowed to 10% [5] - Baidu is expected to report Q3 2025 core business revenue of 24.6 billion RMB, a 7% decline year-on-year, primarily due to the ongoing transformation of its advertising business [5] - Baidu's cloud business is anticipated to grow by 20% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in advertising revenue [5] Economic Indicators - China's tax revenue data indicates an improvement in corporate revenue growth, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.6% and 6.9% for the second and third quarters, respectively [3] - The IEA's monthly report suggests a potential record oil surplus next year, estimated at nearly 4 million barrels per day [4] Investment Sentiment - Investor sentiment in the US stock market has shifted to an overweight position, reaching an eight-month high, with cash holdings dropping to a low of 3.8% [3] - Concerns about potential bubbles in AI stocks and high global stock valuations were noted, with 54% of surveyed investors expressing such concerns [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of US-China tensions, the Asia IG space widened 3-7bps across the board yesterday, with better selling on certain bonds and better buying on others [2] - China's export resilience strengthens its position in the trade war, leading to a revision of the 2025 export growth forecast from 3% to 4.5%, while maintaining the 2025 import growth forecast at 1.5%. The USD/RMB rate may appreciate from 7.13 to 7.1 by year-end and 7.05 by the end of 2026 [4][15][20] - China Water Affairs (CWAHK) proposes to issue a 5NC3 USD senior blue bond, with the FV of the new CWAHK 30 estimated at 6% [8] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Asia IG space widened 3-7bps due to US-China tension, with better selling on TW lifers, China TMTs, Japanese banks' bonds, and Southeast Asian names. Some bonds like FAEACO 12.814 Perp and NWDEVLs/LIFUNGs/FOSUNI 26 - 29s decreased in price. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s and FTLNHD 26/FUTLAN 28 were lower, while some SOE property names had better buying. In Southeast Asia, VLLPM 27 - 29s edged up, and VEDLN 28 - 33s/GLPSPs were down. Long - end Yankee AT1s weakened in the morning and recovered slightly [2] - In the LGFV space, activities picked up with new CNH issues, and the space had a stable session with moderate two - way flows [3] - This morning, there were two - way flows on LGFV names. HAOHUAs recovered 3 - 5bps and HYUELEs recovered 5bps in Asia IG space, while NOMURA and Australian long - end Ts2 widened 2 - 3bps. CWAHK 26 had buyers and was 0.1pt higher [4] Marco News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+1.56%), Dow (+1.29%), and Nasdaq (+2.21%) were higher. The US bond market was closed for Columbus Day, and the UST yield was unchanged, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.52%/3.65%/4.05%/4.63% [7] Desk Analyst Comments - CWAHK proposes to issue a 5NC3 USD senior blue bond (Ba1/BB+/-), with the FV of the new CWAHK 30 at 6% considering its CWAHK 26 and peers' valuations, adjusted for rating and tenor differential. The issuance size should be capped at its remaining offshore - issuance quota of USD200mn [8] - The net proceeds will be used to repay offshore debt and finance eligible green projects. The new CWAHK 30 will have a CoC put at 101 [10] - CWAHK is a holding company operating mainly through PRC subsidiaries. The new CWAHK 30 will be guaranteed by non - PRC - incorporated subsidiary guarantors [11] - CWAHK is one of the largest water supply companies in China, focusing on water supply and sewage treatment, generating stable cash flow from exclusive concession rights in 58 districts. It serves various end - users with potential coverage of over 30mn people [12] - In FY25, CWAHK generated HKD11.7bn of revenue and HKD3.4bn of operating cash flow, with an estimated free cash flow of HKD40mn. Total debt was HKD25.6bn, and its operating performance weakened, with revenue and EBIT down c9%. Coverage ratios also weakened [13] - CWAHK is listed in Hong Kong, with the chairman and founder owning 27.4%, ORIX Corp and affiliates holding 27.2%, and Great Wall Life Insurance holding 6.0% [14] China Economy - China's export growth beat expectations as exports to Africa, Latin America, and the EU picked up. Exports of integrated circuits and ships remained robust, while personal consumption goods were subdued. Imports rebounded across the board, especially in processing trade. China's rare earth export control is a countermeasure to US semiconductor export restrictions. Trade tensions may intensify in the next two weeks before potentially easing after a possible Trump - Xi meeting [15] - Exports rebounded in September, reaching 8.3% YoY from 4.4% in August, beating market expectations. Exports to the US remained in deep contraction, while shipments to Africa, the EU, and Latin America accelerated. Exports to ASEAN moderated. Since the tariff shocks, exports to ASEAN and Africa have increased significantly, making up for over 120% of the export losses to the US since April. Trade surplus narrowed to US$91bn in September [16] - Integrated circuits and ships had strong growth in September, while personal consumption goods moderated. Low - value - added exports and housing - related products were hit by tariffs. Rare earth exports rebounded despite additional export controls [17] - China's imports increased to 7.4% in September from 1.3% in August, beating market expectations. Imports from the US steadied at - 16%. Import value of processing trade accelerated. For energy products, crude oil import volume rose, while coal and natural gas dropped. Raw material imports had mixed results, and crop imports picked up [18] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [22] - There are several issuers in the pipeline, including the Macau Branch of Bank of China Limited, Jinan Hi - tech International, and KEB Hana Bank, with different tenors, coupons, and issue ratings [23] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 118 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB138bn. Month - to - date, 191 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB212bn, a 19.7% yoy increase [24] - Indonesia plans to shorten the permit process for geothermal projects to three months [24] - Country Garden's top shareholder agrees to a USD1.14bn debt - to - equity swap and will hold scheme meetings on 5 Nov'25 for creditors to vote on its offshore restructuring plan [24] - Freeport Indonesia halts the Gresik smelter due to a mine landslide [24] - China Energy Overseas will redeem GEZHOU 4.15 Perp of USD200mn on 25 Nov'25 [24] - LG Electronics expects a 8.4% yoy drop in 3Q25 operating profit due to higher tariffs [24]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.52% while the US markets rebounded, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.29% [1][3] - The Southbound capital saw a net buy of HKD 19.804 billion, with notable inflows into the Tracker Fund, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, while Tencent, Alibaba, and SMIC faced net selling [3] Group 2: Chinese Market Insights - The Chinese stock market experienced a continuous pullback, particularly in healthcare, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors, while materials and utilities sectors saw gains [3] - China's exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, driven by strong demand for industrial robots and wind power equipment, while imports also rebounded significantly [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - JD.com - JD.com is expected to report total revenue of RMB 295 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3%, aligning with Bloomberg's consensus [4] - The non-GAAP net profit for JD.com is projected at RMB 4.4 billion, a decline of 67% year-on-year due to increased investments in the delivery business, but better than the market consensus of RMB 3.7 billion [4] - The operating profit for JD's retail segment is anticipated to grow by 17% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations due to improved scale effects and a higher proportion of high-margin service revenue [4]

Market Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the second phase of the bull market is underway, driven by strong domestic demand and policy support in the AI and semiconductor sectors [2][3]. Domestic Market Insights - The domestic computing power chain is experiencing a comprehensive cyclical resonance, with significant policy and market demand acceleration, exemplified by the successful listing of Moer Thread on September 26 [3]. - AI-driven storage sector prices are expected to see double-digit growth, with TrendForce predicting substantial increases in DDR4/DDR5 contract and spot prices, leading to a price-volume resonance in wafer manufacturing and semiconductor production equipment [3]. Future Outlook - Over the next three months, global computing power investment is expected to maintain high levels of prosperity, with capital expenditures in AI infrastructure still in the expansion phase [4]. - Companies such as Broadcom and AMD are rapidly emerging outside of Nvidia's dominance, while domestic computing power chains are entering a realization phase with high certainty in growth across GPU, storage, wafer manufacturing, and equipment sectors [4]. - AI inference demand is extending to end-user applications, with smart driving and AI terminal applications becoming key growth drivers [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH, Buy) - Shengyi Technology (600183 CH, Buy) - Horizon Robotics (9660 HK, Buy) - Shenzhen South Circuit (002916 CH, Buy) - Beike Micro (2149 HK, Buy) - Northern Huachuang (002371 CH, Buy) [4]. Macro Economic Context - The report notes a slowdown in the Chinese economy, with GDP growth expected to decline from 5.2% in Q2 to 4.9% in Q3 and 4.6% in Q4, with an annual forecast of 5% [11]. - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is likely to see a renewed push for fiscal policy in Q4, with potential interest rate cuts and increased government spending to stimulate consumption [14]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the technology sector, optimism is noted for Q3, with strong sales expected for the iPhone 17 and continued growth in AI server deployments [5]. - The semiconductor sector is also viewed positively, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and partnerships between major players like OpenAI and Broadcom [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth across various sectors, including healthcare, industrials, and consumer staples, with specific recommendations for stocks in these areas [5][6]. Consumer Behavior Trends - The report identifies a cautious but improving consumer sentiment, with expectations for increased spending in essential consumer goods and sectors benefiting from domestic brand replacements [7]. - The report suggests that consumer behavior is gradually adapting to economic pressures, leading to potential growth in sectors like snacks, soft drinks, and beer [7].