制氢：如何从风光过剩、利用小时和度电成本看电解槽未来机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The hydrogen production sector (electrolyzers) presents opportunities through three pathways: "zero electricity cost," "zero equipment cost," and "economic viability" [2] - By 2030, the theoretical electrolyzer capacity could reach 403GW, assuming a 20% wind curtailment rate and 10% solar curtailment rate [2] - In regions with high curtailment rates, such as Xinjiang, electrolyzers could achieve 2000 hours of utilization annually, making hydrogen production economically viable [2] - The cost of wind and solar power is expected to drop significantly, with onshore wind and solar power costs potentially reaching 0.12 RMB/kWh, making off-grid hydrogen production economically feasible [2] - The report recommends focusing on companies like Huadian Heavy Industries, Huaguang Electric, Shenghui Technology, and Shuangliang Energy Saving [2] New Energy Installation Growth - In 2023, China added approximately 217GW of new solar capacity and 76GW of new wind capacity, leading to increasing curtailment pressures [3] - By 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and solar is expected to surpass that of thermal power, with the ratio of thermal power to wind and solar capacity dropping to 1.1:1, and potentially further to 0.9:1 by 2025 [3] Wind and Solar Cost Reduction - The cost of wind and solar power is expected to drop to 0.1-0.15 RMB/kWh, driven by significant reductions in EPC costs [6][9] - In November 2023, the lowest bid for a solar EPC project in Ningxia was 2067 RMB/kW, and in March 2024, the lowest bid for a wind EPC project in Inner Mongolia was 2152 RMB/kW [9] - By 2025, the cost of onshore wind, solar, and offshore wind is expected to be 2600 RMB/kW, 2000 RMB/kW, and 8250 RMB/kW, respectively, with corresponding electricity costs of 0.12, 0.16, and 0.2 RMB/kWh [12] Hydrogen Production Methods - Coal-based hydrogen production remains the dominant method, accounting for 81% of China's hydrogen production, while electrolysis-based hydrogen production accounts for only 1% due to high costs [15] - If electricity prices drop to 0.15 RMB/kWh, the cost of electrolysis-based hydrogen production could decrease to 11.73 RMB/kg, making it more economically viable [15] Hydrogen Demand and Electrolyzer Market - By 2030, the demand for electrolyzers is expected to grow significantly, with annual new demand increasing from 1.5GW in 2023 to 97GW in 2030, representing a CAGR of 81.5% [54] - PEM electrolyzers are expected to see increased adoption, with their share rising to 33% by 2030, driven by their ability to match the variability of wind and solar power [54] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huadian Heavy Industries, Huaguang Electric, Shenghui Technology, and Shuangliang Energy Saving, which are well-positioned in the hydrogen production and electrolyzer markets [56]