DFD(SZ:002407) East Money Securities·2024-06-18 10:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [11]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit continue to be under pressure in Q1 2024, with operating revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 40 million yuan, down 63.9% year-on-year and 16.3% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate in Q1 2024 was 66,700 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21.6% from Q4 2023 and a 62.0% decrease year-on-year. This price drop is identified as a core reason for the company's revenue and profit decline [9][10]. - The company is expected to stabilize its revenue and profit in Q2 2024, with a slight recovery in the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to 69,700 yuan per ton [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.21 billion yuan, 14.61 billion yuan, and 18.79 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.28%, 19.66%, and 28.65% respectively [15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 361.36 million yuan, 564.25 million yuan, and 1.025 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year changes of -29.1%, 56.2%, and 81.7% respectively [15]. - The company’s EBITDA for the same years is expected to be 1.058 billion yuan, 1.382 billion yuan, and 2.080 billion yuan [15]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is currently focusing on expanding its electronic chemical product capacity while slowing down the expansion of lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity due to low prices. The effective capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate is 65,000 tons, with 40,000 tons under construction [10]. - The company plans to complete 1,000 tons of the 4,000 tons of new lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity this year, with the remaining 30,000 tons to be scheduled based on market conditions [10]. - The company is also investing in R&D and new process iterations for its new product LiFSI, with a planned capacity of 2,000 tons and expected shipments of around 1,000 tons in 2024 [10].