上美股份（02145）深度研究 数据为锚&运营驱动，向多品牌领先集 团迈进 2025 年 10 月 22 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 买入（上调） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：刘嘉仁 证书编号：S1160524090001 相对指数表现 -30% 12% 54% 96% 138% 180% 2024/10 2025/4 2025/10 上美股份 恒生指数 | 基本数据 | | --- | | 总市值（百万港元） | 37,123.49 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 19,242.56 | | 52 周最高/最低（港元） 102.40/29.55 | | | 52 周最高/最低（PE） | 46.46/14.02 | | 52 周最高/最低（PB） | 16.56/5.10 | | 52 周涨幅（%） | 215.57 | | 52 周换手率（%） | 62.96 | 注：数据更新日期截止 2025 年 10 月 21 日 相关研究 《业绩位于预告上沿，未来主品牌+小品牌 有望提供多元增长驱动》 2025.04.14 公 司 研 究 / 美 容 护 理 / 证 券 ...

公 司 研 究 / 建 筑 材 料 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 三棵树（603737）财报点评 Q3 家装漆销量同增近 30%，利润率现 金流延续改善趋势 2025 年 10 月 20 日 证券分析师：王翩翩 证书编号：S1160524060001 证券分析师：郁晾 证书编号：S1160524100004 相对指数表现 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 增持（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 2024/10 2025/4 2025/10 三棵树 沪深300 | 基本数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 34,146.19 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 34,146.19 | | 52 周最高/最低（元） | 54.18/32.23 | | 52 周最高/最低（PE） | 86.00/51.16 | | 52 周最高/最低（PB） | 10.63/6.32 | | 52 周涨幅（%） | 43.59 | | 52 周换手率（%） | 75.51 | 注：数据更新日期截止 2025 年 10 月 17 日 相关研究 《Q2 家装墙面漆量价 ...

增持（维持） 公 司 研 究 / 美 容 护 理 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 美丽田园医疗健康（02373）动态点评 收购思妍丽，继续巩固高端美容龙头地 位 2025 年 10 月 20 日 【事项】 公司公告：公司以 12.5 亿元人民币对价，战略收购上海思妍丽实业股 份有限公司 100%股权。思妍丽创立于 1996 年，是中国高端美容服务 标杆品牌。据弗若斯特沙利文数据，以 2024 年收入规模计，思妍丽是 中国第三大美容服务品牌。2024 年思妍丽实现收入 8.5 亿元，净利润 8100 万元。 【评论】 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：刘嘉仁 证书编号：S1160524090001 相对指数表现 -10% 20% 50% 80% 110% 140% 2024/10 2025/4 2025/10 美丽田园医疗健康 恒生指数 | 基本数据 | | --- | | 总市值（百万港元） | 7,641.73 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 7,641.73 | | 52 周最高/最低（港元） 38.52/16.00 | | | 52 周最高/最低（PE） | ...

房地产行业专题研究 从资源型城市看低能级城市房价演绎 路径 2025 年 10 月 20 日 【投资要点】 【风险提示】 地产政策变化超预期、外部环境变化超预期、数据统计有局限性等 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：张明远 证书编号：S1160525030005 证券分析师：张丰淇 证书编号：S1160525070004 相对指数表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/10 2025/4 2025/10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《如何理解当前的房价变化和分化特征》 2025.09.24 《政策预期重新成为市场博弈点》 2025.09.10 《日本地产股在新旧动能转换进程中表现 如何？》 2025.08.30 《如何看上海新政对个人住房房产税的影 响》 行 业 研 究 / 房 地 产 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 为什么要分析资源型城市的房价变化？在三线及以下城市中，有 126 个地级市被认定为资源型城市，数量占比约 48%，而资源型城市体量 普遍较小，其清晰的房价轨迹对研判后续低能级城市的房价演绎路径 具有重要的参考意义。 如何定义资源型城市？ ...

公 司 研 究 / 公 用 事 业 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 佛燃能源（002911）动态点评 发布三年 65%分红规划，新增佛山绿醇 项目 2025 年 10 月 16 日 【点评】 挖掘价值 投资成长 增持（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：周喆 证书编号：S1160525040003 证券分析师：林祎楠 证书编号：S1160525080003 联系人：杨培梁 相对指数表现 基本数据 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2024/10 2025/4 2025/10 佛燃能源 沪深300 | 总市值（百万元） | 16,814.21 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万元） | 16,439.12 | | 52 周最高/最低（元） | 14.05/10.11 | | 52 周最高/最低（PE） | 23.03/16.57 | | 52 周最高/最低（PB） | 3.94/2.84 | | 52 周涨幅（%） | 28.09 | | 52 周换手率（%） | 69.96 | 注：数据更新日期截止 2025 年 10 月 16 日 相关研究 《SOFC 为矛、低波红利为盾，攻守 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction and decoration industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the broader market index [3][13]. Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission has released an action plan aimed at the high-quality development of the smart terminal industry, targeting a total scale exceeding 300 billion yuan by 2027, with the goal of establishing over three globally influential consumer-grade terminal brands and nurturing two leading enterprises [1]. - The report highlights the potential benefits for companies such as Roman Holdings, Pudong Construction, and Suzhou Planning, which are expected to capitalize on the growth of the smart terminal industry and related sectors [1][8]. - The action plan emphasizes the enhancement of intelligent computing terminal scales and the development of products supporting lightweight inference for large models, which is anticipated to drive significant growth in the computing power industry in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region [1]. Summary by Sections Smart Terminal Industry Development - The action plan aims for the smart terminal industry in Shanghai to surpass 300 billion yuan by 2027, with specific targets for artificial intelligence computing devices [1]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% for the smart computing center market in China from 2023 to 2028, with Shanghai positioned as a leading high-tech area [1]. Collaboration with Low-altitude Economy - The report discusses the synergy between low-altitude economy and computing power business, suggesting that advancements in satellite internet terminal products could enhance applications in various fields [1]. - It posits that increased low-altitude flight frequency will necessitate more AI computing power for task prioritization and optimal flight routing, benefiting related enterprises [1]. Beneficiary Companies - Three categories of companies in the Yangtze River Delta construction and building materials sector are identified as potential beneficiaries: 1. Construction companies expanding into computing power business, with recommendations for Roman Holdings and Pudong Construction [8]. 2. Low-altitude facility design and operation companies, including Suzhou Planning and others [8]. 3. Companies likely to benefit from AI-enabled production and entertainment asset operations, such as Zhi Te New Materials [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., which may elevate demand for safe-haven assets like gold and strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten [5][9]. - The copper market is experiencing supply disruptions, with prices trending upward due to tight supply conditions [5]. - Aluminum demand is expected to continue, with potential opportunities for investment following market corrections [5]. - The strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten is emphasized due to recent export controls and geopolitical developments [5][9]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with LME copper prices at $10,735 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.9% [5]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is negative, indicating tight supply [5]. - Companies with rich copper reserves are recommended for investment [9]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $2,800 per ton, up 3.6% week-on-week [5]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain stable [5]. - Investment opportunities are suggested for companies in the aluminum sector following market corrections [9]. Gold Sector - Gold prices are rising, with SHFE gold at 901.6 RMB per gram, up 3.1% week-on-week [5]. - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may enhance gold's strategic position as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Investment in gold-related companies is recommended due to their undervalued resource potential [9]. Rare Metals Sector - Rare earth prices remain stable, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 683,000 RMB per ton [5]. - Recent export controls on rare earths have heightened their strategic importance amid U.S.-China tensions [5][9]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in rare earth production [9]. Steel Sector - Steel prices are stable, with SHFE rebar at 3,103 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [6]. - The report notes frequent disruptions in iron ore supply negotiations, which may impact future prices [6]. - Companies with high self-sufficiency in iron ore are recommended for investment [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the high investment intensity in Anhui Province's 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in highway and municipal construction, with a projected average annual increase in highway operational mileage of 363 kilometers, a 21% increase from the previous plan [6]. - The company has shown resilience with a year-on-year increase of 2.68% in new orders to 75.086 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, despite industry headwinds [6]. - The company is expanding its geographical reach and operational capabilities, establishing 18 branches outside Anhui and focusing on key markets such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Greater Bay Area [6]. - The company has a strong dividend profile, with a cash dividend of 463 million yuan in 2024, a payout ratio of 34.46%, and a dividend yield of 5.9% as of September 30 [6]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.338 billion, 1.439 billion, and 1.538 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 5.99, 5.57, and 5.21 [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2027 are 96.502 billion, 92.332 billion, 94.614 billion, and 96.997 billion yuan, with growth rates of 5.76%, -4.32%, 2.47%, and 2.52% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the securities sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 3900 points, marking a significant milestone since August 2015. This indicates a potential for valuation recovery in the securities sector [5][12]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the securities sector during market uptrends, showcasing substantial excess returns compared to major indices [12]. - The report notes that the market's trading activity has increased significantly, with average daily trading volumes reaching 2.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 211% [13]. - The report suggests that the insurance sector is entering a new phase focused on quality over quantity, driven by recent regulatory changes aimed at enhancing health insurance and non-auto insurance [34][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The securities sector has shown resilience, with the East Wealth Securities Index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.02 percentage points this week [21]. - The report indicates that the average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased by 19.47% compared to the previous week, reflecting heightened investor activity [18]. - The report projects that the third quarter will see continued strong performance in brokerage firms, supported by increased trading volumes and new account openings [13]. 2. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report discusses the implementation of new regulations aimed at improving the quality of health insurance, marking a shift towards prioritizing quality in the insurance sector [34]. - The report highlights the introduction of a new regulatory framework for non-auto insurance, which aims to curb irrational competition and enhance compliance standards [35]. - The report notes that major insurance companies are expected to leverage their advantages in the evolving regulatory landscape to capture market share [34]. 3. Market Liquidity Tracking - The report details the central bank's recent operations, including a net withdrawal of 4.263 billion yuan from the market, indicating a tightening of liquidity conditions [44]. - The report provides insights into the issuance and maturity of various financial instruments, including interbank certificates of deposit and local government bonds, reflecting the current state of market liquidity [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating for the construction decoration industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the renewed US-China tariff conflict, emphasizing the potential benefits for domestic infrastructure and high-demand segments [14]. - It notes an increase in special bond net financing, with significant rapid deployment of special treasury funds, which supports investment stability [15]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Three main investment lines are recommended for the second half of 2025: 1. **Main Line One**: Focus on state-owned enterprises benefiting from national key projects, including low-valuation central enterprises and high-demand local state-owned enterprises. Recommended companies include China Railway Construction, China Railway, China Chemical, China Energy Engineering, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction. Attention is also drawn to China Power Construction and China Metallurgical Group [2]. 2. **Main Line Two**: Target high-demand segments driven by major strategic projects, with recommendations for companies like Gaozheng Minexplosion, Tiejian Heavy Industry, China Railway Industry, Yipuli, and Zhongyan Dadi, while keeping an eye on Tibet Tianlu and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment [2]. 3. **Main Line Three**: Invest in sectors empowered by AI, robotics, and semiconductors, recommending companies such as Roman Co., Hongrun Construction, Zhi Te New Materials, Honglu Steel Structure, and Metro Design [2][18]. Market Performance - The construction decoration index rose by 3.62% in the last week, outperforming the overall A-share index by 2.73 percentage points. Notable performers included Guan Zhong Ecological (+96.1%), Xinjiang Jiaojian (+28.9%), and Huajian Group (+25.4%) [13][26]. Financing and Policy Support - As of October 11, 2025, special bonds had a cumulative net financing of 3.19 trillion yuan, surpassing the same period in 2022 and significantly higher than 2023 and 2024. The issuance of special bonds has reached 84% of the annual target [15][17]. - The report indicates that the government is likely to enhance domestic demand stabilization policies in response to external demand fluctuations, benefiting infrastructure and water conservancy sectors [14]. Company Dynamics - Key company updates include significant project wins for China Railway Construction and China State Construction, with total contract values of 630 billion yuan and 62.2 billion yuan, respectively [34].