2024年5月经济数据点评：5月经济：总量平稳、结构分化

Economic Growth - May GDP is expected to grow by 5.1% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates projected at 5.1%, 4.9%, and 5.0% for Q2 to Q4 respectively, maintaining an annual growth target of 5.1%[3] - Industrial production in May showed a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating stable growth supported by effective industrial policies[6][35] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% from January to May, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.6% and infrastructure investment (excluding utilities) rising by 5.7%[24][36] - Real estate development investment saw a decline of 10.1%, highlighting ongoing challenges in the property market[24][36] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, boosted by the extended May Day holiday, with significant growth in categories like sports and entertainment goods (20.2%) and cosmetics (18.7%)[8][15] - The consumer market is expected to improve gradually, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods and easing real estate policies[15] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a gradual recovery in the job market[26] - Youth unemployment remains a significant challenge, with expectations of a temporary rise in the unemployment rate as new graduates enter the job market in July and August[26] Policy Implications - Continued fiscal support and the issuance of special bonds are anticipated to accelerate the formation of physical work volume in Q3 and Q4, enhancing infrastructure investment[77] - The effectiveness of real estate policies will be crucial in breaking the negative feedback loop currently affecting the property market, with a focus on improving supply-demand dynamics and stabilizing prices[79][80]