Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - On January 30, 2026, the A-share market showed a differentiated and volume - shrinking adjustment; the Treasury bond futures market had mixed performance; the commodity index had a significant adjustment, with precious metals dropping sharply and lithium carbonate hitting the daily limit down [2]. - The current market is in a structural market driven by "policy catalysis + industrial trends". It is recommended to focus on the main lines of photovoltaic, commercial aerospace, and non - ferrous metals in the medium and long term [8]. Summary by Directory Market行情 Analysis - **Stock Market**: The market showed a differentiated adjustment with a shrinking volume. The ChiNext Index rose against the trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.27%, and the STAR 50 Index rose slightly by 0.12%. The total market turnover was 2.86 trillion yuan, a 12.2% decrease from the previous day. Resource stocks tumbled, while agriculture and technology sectors strengthened. The market rotation accelerated, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival capital layout [3][6][8]. - **Bond Market**: The Treasury bond futures market had mixed performance, with medium - and short - term contracts rising and long - term contracts falling. The central bank had a net injection of 352.5 billion yuan, and short - term interest rates declined. In a moderately loose monetary policy environment, the central bank indicated that "there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", which is expected to support the bond market sentiment in the future [10][11]. - **Commodity Market**: The commodity index had a significant adjustment. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 2858 points, down 2.48%. Precious metals and new energy materials were hit hard, while some chemicals and agricultural products rose. Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down, and the price of precious metals fluctuated significantly due to the possible nomination of a new Fed chair [10][11][12]. Trading Hotspot Tracking - **Recent Popular Varieties Summary**: Popular varieties include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain - computer interfaces, robots, large - scale consumption, securities firms, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. Each variety has its own core logic and subsequent focus points [15]. - **Recent Core Ideas Summary**: The overall market turnover remains at a historical high, and it is recommended to focus on the main lines of photovoltaic, commercial aerospace, and precious metals. The bond market is expected to be supported by a moderately loose monetary policy. The commodity market may oscillate and consolidate after high - level fluctuations, and precious metals still have upward potential in the medium and long term [18].

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 01 月 29 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 摘要。2026 年 1 月 29 日周四，A 股市场分化上行，个股跌多涨少，白酒板块大 涨；国债期货市场偏强震荡；商品指数延续强势，沪铜大涨近 7%。 一、市场行情分析 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 白酒板块大反弹 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1）股票市场：分化上行，延续跌多涨少 分化上行，延续跌多涨少。今日 A 股市场呈现显著结构性分化，上证指数全天围 绕 4150 点窄幅波动，最终收报 4157.98 点，涨幅 0.16%；深市表现承压，深证成 指下跌 0.30%至 14300.08 点，创业板指下跌 0.57%至 3304.51 点；科创 50 指数 跌幅达 3.03%。全市场成交额 3.26 万亿，较前一交易日放量约 8.9%，连续 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2026 年 01 月 29 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 数据依赖，弱化指引 ——1 月美联储利率决议点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 事件：美东时间 1 月 28 日（北京时间 1 月 29 日凌晨），美联储公布 1 月利率决 议，宣布维持政策利率在 3.5%至 3.75%不变，符合市场预期。会议以 10 票赞成、 2 票反对通过决议，两位理事因支持降息 25 个基点而投出反对票。 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 解读：2 张反对票显示美联储内部虽有分歧 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 01 月 28 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2026 年 1 月 28 日周三，A 股市场震荡上行，个股跌多涨少，资源股大涨； 国债期货市场微涨；商品指数延续强势，沪铝大涨近 6%。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：市场延续震荡分化上行 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 资源股强势大涨 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 图 1：资源股强势大涨 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 市场延续震荡分化上行。今日 A 股呈现结构性分化格局，上证指数早盘高开后震 荡整固，全天围绕 4150 点窄幅波动，最终收报 4151.24 点，涨幅 0.27%；深市表 现较弱，深证成指微涨 0.09%至 14342.89 点，创业板下跌 0.57% ...

Market Performance - The market showed mixed performance from January 19 to January 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11%[5] - The average daily trading volume was 2.80 trillion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week[5] Healthcare Sector - At the JPM 2026 conference, over 20 Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies showcased their products, with significant business development (BD) transactions announced[16] - In 2025, the value of China's innovative drug patent licensing transactions reached approximately $135.7 billion, a 143% increase year-on-year, with 157 total transactions[20] Consumer Sector - The Qianwen APP integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem, achieving over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, marking its entry into the "billion-level club"[25] - This integration allows for a seamless process from search to decision-making and payment, establishing a comprehensive AI application ecosystem[26] Hard Technology Sector - The supply of storage and logic chips remains tight, leading to widespread price increases across the industry[32] - The price of enterprise SSDs continues to rise, with a projected increase of 33-38% for NAND Flash products due to supply constraints[36] High-end Manufacturing - The State Grid announced a total fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, averaging 800 billion yuan annually[42] - The goal is to achieve a 30% share of renewable energy in total power generation by 2030, indicating significant growth potential for the solar and wind energy sectors[46]

Market Performance - The market showed mixed performance from January 19 to January 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11%[5] - The average daily trading volume was 2.80 trillion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week[5] Healthcare Sector - At the JPM 2026 conference, over 20 Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies showcased their advancements, with significant business development (BD) transactions reported[16] - In 2025, the value of China's innovative drug patent licensing transactions reached approximately $135.7 billion, a 143% year-on-year increase, with 157 total transactions[20] Consumer Sector - The Qianwen APP integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem, achieving over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, marking its entry into the "billion-level club"[25] - This integration allows for a seamless process from search to decision-making and payment, establishing a comprehensive AI application ecosystem[26] Hard Technology Sector - The supply of storage and logic chips remains tight, leading to widespread price increases across the industry[32] - The price of enterprise SSDs continues to rise due to increased demand from AI servers, with NAND Flash supply expected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026[35] High-end Manufacturing - The State Grid announced a total fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, averaging 800 billion yuan annually[42] - By 2030, renewable energy generation is expected to account for approximately 30% of total power generation, indicating significant growth potential in the solar and wind sectors[46]

Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a slight increase, reflecting a bottoming out and recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4139.90 points, up 0.18% [2] - Major indices displayed a mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 0.71% and the STAR 50 Index increasing by 1.51%, indicating a focus on hard technology sectors such as semiconductors and computing [2][5] - The overall market turnover was 2.92 trillion, a decrease of approximately 10.9% from the previous trading day, yet still maintaining historical high levels [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector led the gains, with significant increases in advanced packaging, optical chips, memory, and semiconductor silicon wafer indices, with some stocks hitting the daily limit of 20% [5] - The defense and military industry also saw a rise of 2.27%, with reports indicating an increase in production and delivery of the C919 aircraft [5] - Precious metals continued to perform strongly, with international spot gold surpassing 5100 USD/ounce, while coal and steel sectors faced declines of 2.29% and 1.21% respectively [5] Catalysts and Market Trends - As of January 27, 1061 listed companies had disclosed annual performance forecasts, with 441 companies reporting positive expectations, accounting for 41.56% [7] - The current market is characterized by a structural trend driven by both policy catalysts and industrial trends, with recommendations to focus on sectors such as photovoltaics, commercial aerospace, and precious metals [7][14] - The bond market showed a significant decline in long-term treasury futures, with the 30-year contract dropping by 0.33% [8] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market displayed a strong performance in non-ferrous metals, while the black series faced corrections [8] - The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 2824.26 points, down 0.20%, indicating a structural characteristic of divergence within precious metals and adjustments in other commodities [8] - The focus on precious metals is supported by a weak US dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks, which are expected to sustain gold prices [9][15] Trading Hotspots - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-machine interfaces, and consumer goods, with a focus on policy support and technological advancements [12][14] - The precious metals sector is highlighted due to central bank purchases and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][14]

Market Analysis - A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to 14316.64[2] - Total market turnover increased to 3.28 trillion yuan, up 5.2% from the previous trading day, marking the second consecutive day above 3 trillion yuan[2] Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals led the market with the gold jewelry index rising 7.08%, and international spot gold surpassing 5100 USD/oz, reaching a historical high[5] - Silver futures prices climbed to 100 USD/oz, contributing to rapid valuation recovery in the industry chain[5] Commodity Market Trends - The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 2829.85, up 1.59%, with silver leading gains at 12.78%, platinum up 9.68%, and gold rising 3.67%[7] - Energy and shipping sectors also saw gains, with fuel prices increasing by 6.81%[7] Bond Market Insights - The bond futures market showed mixed results, with the 30-year contract (TL2603) rising 0.20% to 112.51 yuan, while the 10-year contract (T2603) fell 0.02% to 108.18 yuan[7] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 207.8 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as photovoltaic, commercial aerospace, and precious metals, while being cautious of speculative risks in concept stocks[7] - Monitor upcoming performance forecasts and the impact of the Federal Reserve's meeting on January 28[13]

证券研究报告 宏观经济 2026年1月25日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第四期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 科创50 深证成指 恒生指数 恒生科技 恒生中国企业指数 创业板指 上证指数 纳斯达克100 纳斯达克指数 标普500 道琼斯工业平均 沪深300 中美主要宽基指数近双周涨跌 摘要 展望后市，随着地缘局势演化与美国经济数据的陆续发布，当前部分市场的极端定价预计将逐渐 回归理性，未来两周全球各大市场定价的分化预计也将有所收敛，需要积极应对。 过去两周的全球市场主要受地缘局势与美元走弱的影响，国内市场主要受政策与经济的影响。 伊朗局势突发引起中东地缘升温，油价上行； 格陵兰局势升级引发美欧分化，美元转弱，贵金属攀升； 国内在政策面与基本面的交织影响下，汇率坚挺，股债双牛。 整体来看， ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile upward trend with significant trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16 points, up 0.33%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79% to 14439.66 points, with a total market turnover of 3.12 trillion, an increase of approximately 400 billion (+14.8%) from the previous trading day [2][5][7] - The market is characterized by a broad-based rally, with 3938 stocks rising and 1389 falling, indicating a strong profit-making effect [2] Sector Performance - The photovoltaic equipment sector led the market with a significant increase of 9.95% in the photovoltaic selection index, driven by new market hotspots in space photovoltaics, following support from Tesla's CEO Elon Musk at the World Economic Forum [5][9] - The commercial aerospace sector also showed strength, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, supported by upcoming events and the launch of China's first commercial manned spacecraft [5][9] - Conversely, the financial sector faced pressure, with the optical module and insurance selection indices declining by 2.24% and 1.81%, respectively, reflecting a continued shift in market style [5][7] Policy and Market Trends - The market is currently driven by a dual engine of policy and industry trends, with high trading volumes indicating active capital flow from undervalued financial sectors to high-growth sectors, particularly in small and mid-cap growth stocks [7][13] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as photovoltaics (including space photovoltaics and HJT technology), commercial aerospace, and precious metals (gold and silver), while being cautious of pure concept stocks that may face delisting risks [7][13] Bond Market - The bond market saw a slight increase in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.07% to close at 112.30 yuan, supported by a net liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan by the central bank this month [7][9] - The central bank's actions indicate a clear expectation of continued monetary easing, which is expected to support bond prices [7][9] Commodity Market - The commodity market is maintaining an upward trend, with the Nanhua Commodity Index rising by 1.14%, driven by precious and new energy metals, while some sectors like energy and agricultural products faced localized pressure [7][9] - Silver prices are approaching the $100 mark, with the main contract closing at 24,965 yuan/kg, reflecting strong demand driven by both financial and industrial factors [7][9] Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and consumer goods, with a focus on policy support and technological advancements [10][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in these sectors, particularly in terms of application scenarios and project progress [10][13]