[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 桐昆股份(601233.SH) 2025 年 09 月 05 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：石油石化/炼化及贸易 当前价格(元)：14.35 相关研究 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 桐昆股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 18.11 | 32.75 | 32.99 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 10.87 | 23.13 | 20.16 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 1.《桐昆股份(601233.SH)：盈利水平 显著提升，稳步扩产龙头巩固》， 2025.5.12 2.《桐昆股份(601233.SH)：静待桐花 映日开，方得昆玉照朝晖》，2025.1.27 桐昆股份（601 ...

邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 新凤鸣(603225.SH) 2025 年 09 月 05 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学纤维 当前价格(元)：14.90 证券分析师 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 23.04 | 37.06 | 39.33 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 15.80 | 27.45 | 26.50 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《新凤鸣(603225.SH)：业绩表现稳 中 有 进 ， 看 好 长 丝 景 气 修 复 》， 2025.5.12 2.《新凤鸣(603225.SH)：周而复始周 期新，凤鸣长空启华章》，2025.3.3 新凤鸣（603225.SH）：Q2 盈利 同环比提升，看好长丝旺季弹性 投资要点 市场表现 -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 三维化学(002469.SZ) 2025 年 09 月 03 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：建筑装饰/专业工程 当前价格(元)：8.77 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -31% 0% 31% 63% 94% 126% 157% 188% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 三维化学 沪深300 1.《三维化学(002469.SZ)：醋酸纤维 素国产化或受益，新疆煤化工赋予发 展机遇》，2025.4.23 2.《三维化学(002469.SZ)：全年业绩 符合预期，分红比例大幅提升》， 2025.3.28 3.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：正丙醇涨 价带来弹性，新疆煤化工赋予机遇》， 2024.11.15 三维化学(002469.SZ)：工程业 务加速转化，Q2 业绩大幅提升 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 嘉澳环保(603822.SH) 2025 年 09 月 03 日 买入（首次） 所属行业：基础化工/化学制品 当前价格(元)：71.20 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -37% 0% 37% 74% 111% 149% 186% 223% 260% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 嘉澳环保 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 18.75 | 35.59 | 45.75 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 8.01 | 21.73 | 28.82 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 嘉澳环保（603822.SH）：锚定两大核心 客户，SAF 赛道全面领航 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | [Table_Finance] 主要财务数据及预测 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming peak season in September and October is expected to improve demand for polyester filament, leading to price elasticity [5]. - The organic silicon industry is anticipated to experience a phase of rebound due to strengthened collaboration expectations [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.8% and the ChiNext Index increased by 7.7% [4]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 23.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.8% but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 11.1% [4]. Key News and Company Announcements - The demand for polyester filament is improving, supported by favorable external factors such as the extension of tariffs between China and the U.S. and the initiation of autumn and winter orders in the domestic market [5]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to face significant supply pressure in 2024, with a projected 26.5% year-on-year increase in new capacity [5]. Product Price and Price Difference Analysis - As of August 29, the prices for polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) were 6900, 8050, and 7150 CNY/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 100, 100, and 50 CNY/ton [5]. - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with liquid nitrogen in Hebei rising by 38.5% [6]. Investment Recommendations - Core assets are entering a long-term value zone, with chemical blue chips expected to experience a dual recovery in valuation and profitability [6]. - Industries facing supply shortages are likely to see price elasticity first, with specific companies recommended for investment [6].

Core Insights - The report indicates that while the A-share market is in a phase of profit bottoming, structural opportunities have emerged, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing, policy dividends, and low valuation directions [4][11] - The report highlights that the revenue of the entire A-share market showed initial signs of stabilization, but the recovery of non-financial enterprises remains lagging, necessitating effective policies to boost domestic demand and counteract excessive competition [4][11] Industry Economic Insights - The overall revenue of the A-share market in Q2 2025 totaled 18.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.44% [8][12] - The profit growth rate is slowing, indicating increased pressure on profitability, with the profit-revenue gap narrowing significantly, especially for non-financial enterprises [9][11] High-End Manufacturing Insights - The report notes that generative AI is rapidly transitioning from conceptual exploration to practical application, driven by both policy guidance and market demand, which is expected to reshape the industry landscape and release long-term growth momentum [4][10] - The capital expenditure in the semiconductor sector remains high, particularly in mainland China, with major overseas semiconductor equipment companies reporting that around 30% of their revenue comes from this market [10][11] Hard Technology Insights - The demand for artificial intelligence is sustaining high capital expenditure in the semiconductor industry, with mainland China's performance being particularly notable [10][11] - The report mentions that domestic wafer foundries are maintaining high capacity utilization rates, which supports ongoing expansion and capital expenditure [10][11] Consumer Sector Insights - The new consumption concept has gained traction in the A-share market, leading to valuation increases and sustained stock price growth in related sectors [4][11] - The report suggests that while the recovery in consumer demand is slow, leading companies possess strong pricing power, and potential policy catalysts could significantly enhance recovery elasticity [11][12]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2025 年 09 月 01 日 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：美联储官员再度 释放降息信号，贵金属表现出色 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声 ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场月报 2025 年 09 月 01 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场月报 8 月市场主线不明显，市场预期围绕 9 月降息展开，杰克逊霍尔会议暂时弥合双 方分歧，后续关注降息幅度。8 月白宫与美联储的博弈加剧，在 8 月上旬特朗普 提名斯蒂芬·米兰以填补美联储理事的空缺之后，特朗普又呼吁另一名理事丽 莎·库克立即辞职，原因是涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。可以看到，即使鲍威尔在 8 月 22 日杰克逊霍尔会议上放鸽，也未能阻止特朗普对美联储的继续施压，我们认为这 可能有三方面的考虑因素：第一，特朗普希望加速降息，目前 9月降息 25bp 已经 成为市场主要预期，而特朗普可能希望降息幅度加大、节奏加快。第二，特朗普 的施压能为自己开脱"罪名"。如果后续美国经济真的超预期走弱，特朗普有充 足的理由"甩锅"给美联储，将衰退的原因归咎于美联储没有及时降息，或是降 息幅度不够大。第三，对美联储内部理事的间接掌控长期来看有助于货币政策和 财政政策的协同作用，如果米兰提名成功，丽莎·库克的事件发酵导致被替代， 特朗普可能在 7 理事中获得多数支持，有助于后续特朗普政策的协同落地。 英伟达财报对市场影响有限， ...

所属行业：煤炭/煤炭开采 当前价格(元)：1.45 证券分析师 翟堃 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 永泰能源(600157.SH) 2025 年 08 月 29 日 买入（维持） 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 69% 86% 103% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 永泰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -2.65 | 9.70 | 9.70 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -10.81 | -4.12 | -6.56 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭主 业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推进》， 2025.4.29 2.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：上调回 购价格上限， ...

所属行业：有色金属/贵金属 当前价格(元)：33.36 证券分析师 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 山东黄金(600547.SH) 2025 年 08 月 29 日 买入（维持） 1.《山东黄金（600547.SH）：黄金价 格持续上涨，公司业绩维持增长》， 2024.10.29 2.《山东黄金（600547.SH）：黄金龙 头量价齐升，多项目进展顺利》， 2024.8.29 3.《黄金：降息预期提升，金价展望 2600 美元》，2024.8.1 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 山东黄金 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 12.43 | 9.33 | 14.85 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 13 ...