Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 43.54 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.72%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.97 billion yuan, up 36.14% year-on-year [6] - The company produced 91,200 tons of tin in 2025, marking a continuous growth for four years, with total non-ferrous metal production reaching 356,000 tons [6] - The average price of tin contracts increased significantly, with the Shanghai tin contract averaging 284,500 yuan per ton, a rise of 29.01% year-on-year [6] - The company holds a dominant market position with a domestic market share of 53.35% and a global market share of 27.16% in tin [6] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 1,645.43 million [5] - Total market capitalization: 51.93 billion yuan [5] - Projected net profits for 2026-2028 are estimated at 2.54 billion, 2.79 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan respectively [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 11.4% in 2026, decreasing slightly to 10.6% in 2027 and 2028 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 1.19 yuan in 2025 to 1.85 yuan in 2028 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 43.54 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.72%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.97 billion yuan, up 36.14% year-on-year [6] - The company produced a total of 35.60 million tons of non-ferrous metals in 2025, with tin production exceeding 91,200 tons, marking a continuous growth for four years [6] - The average price of tin in 2025 was 284,500 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 29.01%, indicating strong price performance in the non-ferrous metal sector [6] - The company maintains a strong market position with a domestic market share of 53.35% and a global market share of 27.16% in tin [6] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 1,645.43 million [5] - Total market capitalization: 51.93 billion yuan [5] - Revenue forecast for 2026-2028: 47.47 billion yuan (2026E), 48.88 billion yuan (2027E), 50.41 billion yuan (2028E) [7] - Net profit forecast for 2026-2028: 2.54 billion yuan (2026E), 2.79 billion yuan (2027E), 3.04 billion yuan (2028E) [7] - Earnings per share forecast for 2026-2028: 1.54 yuan (2026E), 1.70 yuan (2027E), 1.85 yuan (2028E) [7] - Gross margin forecast for 2026-2028: 10.6% (2026E), 10.6% (2027E), 11.2% (2028E) [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation and oil price shocks will continue to disrupt global risk appetite. A - share market is difficult to completely shake off external emotional suppression in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor the evolution of the Middle - East situation, international oil price trends, and the further transmission of external market fluctuations to A - share sentiment [8][15] - The inter - bank liquidity in the bond market is still relatively abundant. The central bank's open - market operations continue to send signals of care. Treasury bond futures are generally strong, with the long - end performing better, and the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern [11][15] - The core logic of the commodity market is the parallel evolution of geopolitical risk premium and domestic fundamental repair. Precious metals are strong due to the Middle - East situation and macro - expectation repricing, while industrial metals such as tin benefit from the marginal recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The commodity market may still have a structural market in the short term [9][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - A - share market indices were under pressure, and the trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86 points, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06 points, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3184.95 points, down 2.70%; the STAR 50 Index closed at 1256.33 points, down 2.59%. The total A - share trading volume was about 2.01 trillion yuan, up 4.1% from the previous trading day [7] - The market showed a pattern of more falling stocks than rising stocks, with 1008 rising stocks and 4372 falling stocks. The growth technology direction adjusted significantly, while sectors such as home appliances, banks, and food and beverages were relatively resistant to decline [6][7] Bond Market - The treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of strong long - end and stable short - end. The 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2606 rose 0.15%, closing at 111.69 yuan, with a trading volume of 852.75 billion yuan; the 10 - year treasury bond futures T2606 rose 0.04%, closing at 108.40 yuan, with a trading volume of 881.23 billion yuan; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures were flat compared with the previous day [11] - The central bank carried out 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 150 billion yuan. Except for the 7 - day Shibor, other term Shibor rates declined, indicating that the liquidity was further relaxed [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index declined, but non - ferrous metals performed strongly. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 3074.6 points, down 0.91%. Leading gainers included Shanghai silver, soybean No.1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, and double - gum paper, while leading losers included PVC, LPG, coking coal, container shipping index (European line), and lithium carbonate [9] Trading Hotspot Tracking Recent Hot - Product Review - Artificial intelligence: Global industrialization is accelerating, and new applications are emerging. Key points to follow include changes in capital expenditure of leading enterprises, transformation of application scenarios, and product technology upgrades [14] - Commercial space: With the establishment of commercial space companies and strong support for development, key points to follow include domestic recoverable rocket launches and technological breakthroughs of overseas leaders such as SPACEX [14] - Nuclear fusion: Industrialization is accelerating, and artificial intelligence drives the increase in power demand. Key points to follow include project progress and industry bidding [14] - Big consumption: Policy promotes consumption upgrading. Key points to follow include economic recovery and further stimulus policies [14] - Securities firms: A - share trading volume is running at a high level. Key points to follow include A - share trading volume and possible changes in trading systems [14] - Precious metals: Central banks continue to increase holdings, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. Key points to follow include further interest - rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [14] - Energy and chemicals: The Middle - East geopolitical situation affects supply. Key points to follow include the progress of the conflict and changes in crude oil prices [14] - Shanghai silver strengthened significantly. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East and the game of macro - expectations, precious metals recovered. Shanghai tin strengthened oscillatingly, supported by the recovery of manufacturing prosperity [14] Recent Core Idea Summary - In the equity market, focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation, oil prices, and external market fluctuations on A - share sentiment [15] - In the bond market, the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with the long - end of treasury bonds performing better [15] - In the commodity market, it may show a structural market in the short term. Pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation, oil price trends, and the sustainability of domestic demand recovery [15]

2026 年 03 月 31 日 证券研究报告 | 策略专题 策略专题 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 姓名 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 滞胀经验镜鉴与资产配置启示 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 近期中东局势发酵，市场对"滞胀交易"的讨论升温，本文回顾 70 年代两轮石油 危机和 2021-2022 年类滞胀的情形，以期为当前交易逻辑与资产配置提供参考。 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 对比来看，我们认为当前的情形与 70 年代石油危机更为类似：第一，目前市场的 主要矛盾同样在于地缘局势发酵带来的原油供应问题；第二，当前以美元为主导的 货币体系有所松动，与当时布雷顿森林体系解体后的环境相似。但当前宏观环境有 其特殊 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company maintains a strong position in the coking coal market, with a focus on expanding its chemical business, which is expected to yield significant returns in the coming years [3][6] - The company achieved a total revenue of 39.286 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.58 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 188.1% [6] - The report emphasizes the company's successful cost control measures and production capacity expansion, which have contributed to a stable gross profit margin despite declining prices in the coking coal market [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 39.286 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected revenue increase to 44.599 billion yuan in 2026 and further growth to 52.071 billion yuan by 2028 [4][7] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly from 0.58 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.672 billion yuan in 2027 and 2.384 billion yuan in 2028 [6][7] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 7.8% in 2025 to 14.7% by 2028, indicating enhanced profitability [4][7] Business Segment Analysis - The coking segment's revenue decreased by 23.4% to 13.515 billion yuan in 2025, but the gross profit increased by 10.4% to 1.671 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 12.4% [6] - The fine chemicals segment generated revenue of 17.797 billion yuan in 2025, down 14.1% year-on-year, but the company is positioning itself for long-term growth through high-end product development [6] - The hydrogen energy segment saw a production increase of 25.7% in high-purity hydrogen, with a market share of 21.8% in North China, indicating a successful strategic initiative [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit, with projections of 1.126 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.384 billion yuan in 2028, driven by market recovery and strategic initiatives [6][7] - The report anticipates that the chemical products market will experience price increases due to geopolitical factors, benefiting the company's chemical business [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a consolidation trend with a trading volume rising to 1.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% increase from the previous trading day [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3923.29 points, up 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.25% and 0.68% respectively, indicating a mixed performance among the major indices [7] - The market displayed resilience despite external pressures from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a notable internal digestion of funds [8] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, military industry, and textiles, with respective increases of 1.79%, 1.47%, and 1.41%, indicating a shift of funds towards resource and manufacturing sectors [6] - Conversely, the electricity utilities and new energy sectors experienced declines, with drops of 2.25% and 1.54%, suggesting a phase of adjustment for previously defensive sectors [8] Bond Market - The bond market saw a general rise in government bond futures, with the 30-year bond futures increasing by 0.38% and the 10-year bond futures up by 0.15%, reflecting a positive sentiment in the bond market supported by ample liquidity [12] - The People's Bank of China continued to provide liquidity support through open market operations, resulting in a net injection of 2615 billion yuan [12] Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 0.97%, with the shipping index (European line) showing a strong correlation with energy and chemical products [10] - Key commodities such as lithium carbonate and pure benzene saw significant increases, while some agricultural products faced declines, indicating a mixed performance across different commodity categories [10] Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion, driven by policy support and technological advancements [15] - The shipping index's significant rise of 6.32% reflects the market's recalibration of risks associated with geopolitical tensions affecting global shipping supply chains [15] Strategic Insights - The report suggests that while geopolitical tensions and oil price shocks may continue to suppress global risk appetite, the A-share market has shown a degree of independence, focusing on internal structural opportunities [16] - The bond market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern due to continued liquidity support, while the commodity market is likely to revolve around geopolitical risk premiums and supply contraction expectations [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in its core business, with significant downstream expansion and a well-formed upstream layout [5] - The company reported a revenue of 29.502 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.818 billion yuan, up 8.13% year-on-year [8] - The production of electrolytic aluminum reached 1.1858 million tons, with an average selling price of approximately 20,600 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year [8] - The company is advancing its upstream resource projects, which are expected to enhance raw material security and reduce production costs [8] - Cost control measures have led to a significant reduction in production costs, with a 7% decrease in electrolytic aluminum production costs year-on-year [8] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 4,628.74 million [7] - Market capitalization: 74,615.25 million yuan [7] - Revenue forecast for 2026-2028: 30.484 billion, 37.171 billion, and 38.156 billion yuan respectively [9] - Net profit forecast for 2026-2028: 6.992 billion, 7.799 billion, and 8.218 billion yuan respectively [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2026-2028: 1.51, 1.69, and 1.78 yuan respectively [9] - Gross margin forecast for 2026-2028: 30.8%, 27.8%, and 28.6% respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1,449.33 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.49%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 83.81 billion yuan, down 43.61% year-on-year [6] - The coal business showed growth in both production and sales, with a coal output of 18,240 million tons, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and sales of 17,123 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year [6] - The chemical business also demonstrated resilience, with production increasing by 8.47% year-on-year to 9,775 million tons and sales rising by 5.68% to 8,574 million tons [6] - The company continues its tradition of high dividends, planning to distribute a total cash dividend of 243 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, which represents 66% of the net profit after statutory reserves [6] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 10,037.48 million shares [5] - Market capitalization: 204,664.23 million yuan [5] - Revenue forecast for 2026: 1,589 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 177 billion yuan [7] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 29.3%, with a net profit margin of 9.8% [7] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of approximately 50% of net profit after statutory reserves for the years 2026-2028 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1,449.33 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.49%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 83.81 billion yuan, down 43.61% year-on-year [6] - The coal business showed growth in both production and sales, with a total coal production of 18,240 million tons, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and sales of 17,123 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year [6] - The chemical business also demonstrated resilience, with production increasing by 8.47% to 9,775 million tons and sales rising by 5.68% to 8,574 million tons [6] - The company continues its tradition of high dividends, planning to distribute a total cash dividend of 243 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, which represents 66% of the net profit after statutory reserves [6] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 10,037.48 million shares [5] - Market capitalization: 204,664.23 million yuan [5] - Revenue forecast for 2026: 1,589 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of 9.7% [7] - Net profit forecast for 2026: 177 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of 111.2% [7] - Gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 29.3%, improving to 39.1% by 2026 [7] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of approximately 50% of net profit after statutory reserves for the years 2026-2028 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, with revenue at 41.24 billion yuan, down 37.40% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.51 billion yuan, down 68.98% year-on-year [5] - The coal production and sales volumes decreased, with total coal production at 17.38 million tons, down 15.42% year-on-year, and sales at 13.31 million tons, down 13.38% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on cost reduction strategies to mitigate the impact of falling prices, successfully reducing the cost per ton of coal sold by 78.82 yuan [5] - The ethanol project is progressing well, with the company producing 546,800 tons of anhydrous ethanol in 2025, a 47.35% increase year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan per 10 shares, which represents 44.71% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [5] - Future projections estimate net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 3.26 billion yuan, 3.71 billion yuan, and 4.32 billion yuan respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [5] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 2,693.26 million [4] - Market capitalization: 37.54 billion yuan [4] - Revenue forecast for 2024A: 65.88 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 10.5% [4] - Net profit forecast for 2024A: 4.86 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 22.0% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025A: 0.56 yuan, with a projected increase to 1.21 yuan in 2026E [6] - Gross margin forecast for 2026E: 19.0%, increasing to 23.1% by 2028E [6]