市场策略报告：反弹预期强化

Core Insights and Outlook - The market experienced fluctuations driven by the AI industry, with a shift towards technology growth. The Growth Index, Sci-Tech 100, and Sci-Tech 50 saw significant gains, while dividend sectors declined by 2.14%. Major indices like the Shanghai Composite 50, Shanghai Composite 180, and CSI 300 underperformed due to declines in heavyweight stocks such as Moutai and CATL [12][20]. - The TMT sector was active, with communication, computer, and electronics industries rising over 4%, while transportation and agriculture sectors faced declines. The trading volume exceeded 800 billion on Friday, indicating stabilization in the Shanghai Composite 50 [12][20]. - Financial data showed a continued decline in the growth rate of total social financing in May, but signs of a bottoming out in rolling growth and loan growth for the real economy were observed. Despite poor monetary data, a long-term shift in allocation logic may be occurring, favoring high-dividend safety assets for a period [8][12]. Index and Fund Market Review - The overall market saw a rebound expectation strengthen, with the technology sector leading gains. The information technology sector rose by 4.36%, while daily consumer, real estate, and public utilities sectors underperformed [35][54]. - The median PE valuation for the entire market fell to 18.5 times, with a historical percentile of 5.5%. The median PB valuation remained at 1.7 times, with a historical percentile of 4.7% [45][48]. Risk Preference and Sector Heat - The TMT sub-sectors showed the highest absolute rankings and heat increases, while sectors like banking, transportation, and public utilities cooled down. The electronic sector's heat index rose significantly from 28 to 66, indicating strong market interest [55][42]. - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 21.873 billion, primarily flowing into electronics, computers, and communications sectors, while sectors like food and beverage, electric equipment, and pharmaceuticals experienced net outflows [56][59]. Important Capital Behavior - The net subscription for ETFs this week was led by the Sci-Tech 50 ETF, with a net inflow of 2.7 billion. Other notable inflows included the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 ETFs [44][59]. - The report indicates that the current valuation levels across various industries are generally at or below historical averages, with no significant overheating observed in any sector [48][45].