[Table_Rank] 评级： 增持 王斌 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522030002 wangbin3@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152644 [市场指数走势（最近 Table_Chart] 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 4-Sep 15-Nov 26-Jan 8-Apr 19-Jun 30-Aug 誉衡药业 沪深300 | | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 3.39 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低价（元） | 4.08/1.80 | | 市盈率（当前） | 31.43 | | 市净率（当前） | 3.72 | | 总股本（亿股） | 22.46 | | 总市值（亿元） | 76.13 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | [Table_Profit] | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收（亿元） | 24.41 | 24.37 | 27.51 | 30.80 | | 营收增速（%） | -7.1% | -0. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the negative impact of policy adjustments on the medical service industry is concentrated, but various business segments are expected to gradually stabilize and recover [3][5] - The company's medical service revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.378 billion yuan, down 14.84% year-on-year, but the gross margin for medical services increased by 0.99 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [5] - The report anticipates that the aging population will continue to drive demand for medical services, leading to a potential recovery in the company's medical service business [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.366 billion yuan, 3.649 billion yuan, and 3.946 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.4%, 8.4%, and 8.1% respectively [4][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 87 million yuan, 106 million yuan, and 140 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -24.3%, 21.6%, and 32.7% respectively [4][5] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 83.9, 68.9, and 52.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] Business Performance - The company's pharmaceutical and medical product revenue for the first half of 2025 was 208 million yuan, down 44.66% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement [5] - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical business may stabilize as the company increases its efforts in grassroots market development and expands its market coverage [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous growth in innovative products, with a notable performance in the skin health line [4] - The company reported a revenue of 4.002 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 941 million yuan, up 3.38% [5] - The sales of exclusive/brand and innovative products increased by 20.6% year-on-year, accounting for 62.1% of total revenue [5] - The company is advancing its innovative drug pipeline, with several products in various stages of clinical trials [5] - The skin health line (Demeg Pharmaceuticals) achieved a revenue of 498 million yuan, a significant increase of 104.3% [5] - The company plans to spin off Demeg Pharmaceuticals for independent listing, which is expected to help in the revaluation of its skin care product line [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 8.053 billion yuan, 9.439 billion yuan, and 11.651 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.685 billion yuan, 1.956 billion yuan, and 2.465 billion yuan [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is focused on innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in cardiovascular, central nervous system, digestive, and renal fields [5] Financial Performance - The company’s current P/E ratio is 18.12, with a market capitalization of 32.787 billion HKD [5] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.8%, 17.2%, and 23.4% respectively [6] Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with several innovative drugs under development, including those for chronic kidney disease and asthma [5] Market Position - The company has established a strong market presence with a comprehensive product matrix and experienced commercialization capabilities [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The commercialization value of Oubatinib is being realized, and the pipeline of innovative drugs is steadily advancing [4] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 731 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -30.09 million yuan [8] - Oubatinib's sales in the hematological oncology indications are rapidly increasing, with significant growth potential in sales expected [8] - The company has multiple innovative drugs in development, with a rich product pipeline and several catalysts expected in the next 1-3 years [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total share capital is 1.765 billion shares, with a total market value of 53.592 billion yuan [2] - The projected operating revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 1.51 billion yuan, 1.914 billion yuan, and 2.452 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.6%, 26.7%, and 28.2% respectively [9] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is -259 million yuan, -241 million yuan, and -251 million yuan [9] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is -256.56, with projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being -207.3, -222.0, and -213.9 respectively [2][9]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices have performed relatively well since 2025, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 25.51%, the Hang Seng Technology Index by 22.89%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 23.98% from the beginning of 2025 to July 30, 2025 [3][17]. - The improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong market is significantly driven by the increase in southbound capital, which has seen a total trading volume of 14.63 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 220.41% [3][21]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains attractive, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index having TTM P/E ratios of 11.49, 22.24, and 10.49 respectively, which are lower compared to the CSI 300 Index [3][31]. Group 2 - The "Dividend +" strategy is based on the high dividend yield and low valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks, particularly state-owned enterprises, which generally have higher dividend rates [3][46]. - The "Dividend + Stability" strategy focuses on selecting stocks with high dividend yields and stable earnings, with criteria including a TTM dividend yield greater than 4.5% and a market capitalization of over 30 billion RMB [3][55]. - The "Dividend + Economic Recovery" strategy targets investment opportunities in the power sector, which is currently experiencing a recovery due to stable coal prices and increasing electricity demand [3][59]. Group 3 - The power industry is in a recovery phase, with coal prices stabilizing and electricity demand increasing, which enhances the profitability of power companies [3][60][64]. - The implementation of a two-part electricity pricing mechanism starting in 2024 is expected to support the profitability of coal power companies by allowing them to recover fixed costs [3][64]. - The renewable energy sector is also expected to benefit from improved cash flow and reduced accounts receivable, which will enhance dividend capabilities [3][70][71].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has maintained stable sales of its core product, Xinhuasu, and is continuously developing a "second growth curve" through the introduction of new products and expansion into new markets [5][7] - The company reported a revenue of 1.651 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.96% to 567 million yuan [7] - The company expects Xinhuasu sales to stabilize in 2025, with new production capacity set to be released, which will help alleviate production bottlenecks [7] - The company is also focusing on expanding its product range, with other products generating a revenue of 192 million yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 18.83% [7] - The company has invested in Chen Tai Pharmaceutical, acquiring a 13.04% stake, and has signed an exclusive distribution agreement for Zolotinin, which is expected to enhance its product portfolio [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.929 billion yuan in 2025, 3.168 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.513 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 4.4%, 8.2%, and 10.9% respectively [6][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 983 million yuan in 2025, 1.045 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.152 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -6.5%, 6.3%, and 10.2% respectively [6][7] - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 15.6, 14.6, and 13.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the national economy showed steady progress with new driving forces growing. Industrial production increased rapidly, consumption grew steadily, and investment maintained potential despite a slight slowdown [2][14] - The combined policies of anti - involution and expanding domestic demand continued to boost high - quality economic growth. Anti - involution policies aimed to optimize supply, and policies like consumer credit subsidies expanded domestic demand [4][15] - Humanoid robots moved towards scenario - based applications with improved autonomy. The first humanoid robot games and the World Robot Conference demonstrated their development [4][16] - In the context of increasing anti - involution efforts on the supply side, it's necessary to focus on whether the demand side can resonate with the supply side. Industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, as well as the AI industry, are recommended for attention [4][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Views - In July 2025, the national economy had positive performance. Industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year, equipment and high - tech manufacturing grew significantly, and the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 24.2%, 24.0%, and 17.1% respectively. Social consumer goods retail总额 was 387.8 billion yuan, with some categories showing strong growth. 1 - 7 months' fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and investment in some industries grew rapidly [2][14] - Anti - involution policies included industry associations' resistance to malicious competition and the central bank's focus on price stability. The consumer credit subsidy policy covered a wide range of consumption areas, promoting economic growth [4][15] - Humanoid robots achieved improvements in flexibility and scenario - based applications, and the high国产化率 at the World Robot Conference indicated enhanced autonomy [4][16] - Investment suggestions included focusing on emerging industries' anti - involution progress and the development of the AI industry, especially domestic AI's performance and application scenarios [4][16] 3.2 North Exchange Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index rose 2.40% from August 11th to 15th. Its annual increase was 42.25%, second only to the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index. The index had high volatility. Electronics and computers led the gains this week, while beauty care and national defense and military industries declined. GEBICA and Haineng Technology led the individual stock gains [17][21][28] 3.3 North Exchange 50 Activity Increase - The trading volume of the North Exchange 50 in the week of August 11th - 15th was 128 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week. However, due to a larger increase in the trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, its trading volume ratio decreased to 1.22% [33] 3.4 North Exchange 50 P/E Ratio Valuation at a Relatively High Level - On August 15th, the median P/E ratio (TTM) of the North Exchange 50 was 64 times, higher than the 29 - times median of the Wind All - A Index [34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable operations by compensating for price declines with increased volume, supported by new projects that will drive growth [1] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, the company has shown resilience in production and sales volume, with significant capacity expansions completed [5] - The company has a strong capital expenditure plan, with investments exceeding 100 billion yuan annually since 2018, ensuring long-term growth potential [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 1,988.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.2% [2] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 135.19 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 4.31 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 909.01 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 6.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 61.23 billion yuan, down 25.10% year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 13.84%, a decrease of 2.57 percentage points year-on-year [5] Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company has completed significant capacity expansions, including the MDI facility in Fujian, which increased capacity from 400,000 tons/year to 800,000 tons/year, and the new ethylene project in Yantai with a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year [5] - New projects in high-performance materials and other segments are expected to contribute to future growth [5] Financial Ratios and Projections - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be 61.7% in 2025, indicating a stable financial structure [6] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.8% in 2025, reflecting the company's ability to generate profit from shareholders' equity [6] - The net profit margin is projected to be 7.2% in 2025, indicating profitability despite market challenges [6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed positive recovery last week, with rapid sector rotation observed[13] - The total margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating high market sentiment[37] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.1 basis points, reflecting a warming bond market[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, with rare earth exports reaching 5,994.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July recorded a year-on-year change of 0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%[23] - Exports to the EU and Africa increased by 9.2% and 42.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery in overseas demand[18] Group 3: External Factors - The MSCI developed markets index rose by 2.38%, while the MSCI emerging markets index increased by 1.78% last week[31] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a key event to watch[37] - The U.S. imposed a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, which may impact market volatility[31]

Core Insights - The AI and robotics industry is entering a high prosperity window due to supportive policies and technological advancements, such as the launch of OpenAI's new flagship AI model GPT-5 [2][4][16] - The RWA registration platform has been officially launched in Hong Kong, which is expected to facilitate scene expansion and large-scale applications, particularly in green bonds and carbon credits [4][17] Economic Data - Recent economic data indicates a stable improvement in China's macroeconomic environment, with July's CPI remaining flat year-on-year and PPI decreasing by 3.6% year-on-year, reflecting the effects of demand expansion and improved market competition [4][14] - China's total goods trade value in July reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, indicating a positive trend in trade [4][14] Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China and other departments have released guidelines to support new industrialization, emphasizing the need for a financial system that aligns with industrial advancement and prevents "involution" competition [4][15] - The 2025 World Robot Conference highlighted key trends in the robotics industry, including the shift of humanoid robots from laboratory settings to industrial applications, and the focus on embodied intelligence [4][16] Investment Recommendations - In the context of ongoing supply-side reforms, attention should be paid to the demand-side dynamics to escape the "involution" dilemma, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [4][17] - The AI industry is expected to thrive with continued support for domestic alternatives and technological advancements, particularly in computing power and energy efficiency [4][17]