[Table_Rank] 评级： 增持 翟绪丽 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522010001 zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 21-Oct 1-Jan 14-Mar 25-May 5-Aug 16-Oct 中复神鹰 沪深300 [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 [Table_Title] Q2 单季度利润扭亏为盈，行业及公司经营拐点出现 [Table_ReportDate] 中复神鹰(688295)公司简评报告 | 2025.10.21 [ Table_OtherReport] 最新收盘价（元） 26.00 一年内最高/最低价（元） 29.30/16.80 市盈率（当前） -170.27 市净率（当前） 5.04 总股本（亿股） 9.00 总市值（亿元） 234.00 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_Summary] ⚫ 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，报告期内，公司实现营业收入 9.22 亿元， 同比+25. ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, driven by the AI industry's growth and the need for enhanced computing power [1][3] - The AI industry is experiencing a robust development phase, transitioning from cloud-based models to edge intelligence and embodied intelligence, supported by domestic substitution policies and continuous technological advancements [3][15] Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI data show marginal improvement, with September 2025 CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and declining 0.3% year-on-year, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [2][9] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, indicating a narrowing of the decline due to policies aimed at reducing internal competition [2][9] Trade Performance - China's import and export values showed positive growth in September 2025, with total trade value increasing by 8%, exports rising by 8.4%, and imports growing by 7.5% year-on-year, reflecting strong performance in high-tech products and advanced manufacturing [10][12] Semiconductor Sector - TSMC reported Q3 2025 revenue of $33.1 billion, a 10.1% increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, with 74% of wafer revenue coming from 7nm and below [12] - Cambricon Technologies reported a staggering year-on-year revenue increase of 1332.52% in Q3 2025, reaching 1.727 billion yuan, with a net profit of 567 million yuan, showcasing significant improvement in performance [12] AI Infrastructure Investment - Major AI companies, including Nvidia, OpenAI, and Google, are accelerating investments in data centers, with Nvidia and partners planning to invest $40 billion in acquiring data center giant Aligned [13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Millisecond Computing" initiative to enhance computing infrastructure, aiming for sub-millisecond connectivity and access in urban networks [13] Energy Sector - The demand for energy storage and power equipment is expected to grow, with Nvidia exploring mid-voltage rectifier applications and developing solid-state transformers to meet the increasing power needs of AI [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the resonance between supply and demand sides to escape the internal competition dilemma, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [15] - Attention should be given to the AI industry chain, including chips, servers, liquid cooling, power supplies, and downstream AI applications, as domestic AI continues to evolve in performance and efficiency [15]

[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 韩杨 科技行业分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110525060002 hanyang@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152681 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.5 0 0.5 1 21-Oct 1-Jan 14-Mar 25-May 5-Aug 16-Oct 电子 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] [Table_OtherReport] 电子行业周报：英伟达将入股英特尔， OpenAI 着手开发端侧硬件 电子行业周报：英伟达发布 Rubin CPX，甲骨文 AI 订单大幅增长 电子行业周报：博通 FY2025Q3 收入 创新高，上调 2026 年 AI 收入 台积电发布 2025Q3 业绩，收入毛利率均超指引。台积电 2025Q3 实 现营收 331 亿美元，超出上一个季度指引区间（318 亿-330 亿美元）， 同比+40.8%，环比+10.1%。2025Q3 公司实现毛利率 59.5%，超出上一 季度指引区间（55.5%-57.5%），同比+1.7 ...

[Table_Title] 差异化布局优势明显，即将迎来商业化及研发里程碑 兑现 [Table_ReportDate] 首药控股(688197)公司简评报告 | 2025.10.16 核心观点 盈利预测 [市场指数走势（最近 Table_Chart] 1 年） | [Table_Profit] | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收（亿元） | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.96 | 2.85 | | 营收增速（%） | -24.6% | 280.5% | 537.7% | 197.8% | | 归母净利润（亿元） | -2.12 | -1.83 | -2.08 | -1.12 | | 归母净利润增速（%） | —— | —— | —— | —— | | EPS(元/股) | -1.43 | -1.23 | -1.40 | -0.75 | | PE | -28.2 | -32.7 | -28.7 | -53.4 | 资料来源： wind ，首创证券 -0.5 0 0.5 1 16-Oct 27-Dec 9- ...

韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 首创证券宏观经济分析报告：8 月经 济数据偏弱，美联储如期降息 25BP 首创证券宏观经济分析报告：美联 储若将降息，港股历史表现如何？ 首创证券宏观经济分析报告：上周A 股波动加剧，美国非农数据弱于预 期 [Table_Title] 周报：假期海外资产动荡，中美关税摩擦 2.0 开启 [Table_ReportDate] 宏观经济分析报告 | 2025.10.16 核心观点 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] | 图 | 1 假期期间全球重要资产涨跌幅表现（9 月 30 日-10 月 8 日） 1 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 假期期间伦敦金现货价格突破 美元/盎司 1 2 4000 | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [1] Core Views - The profitability of viscose filament remains stable, and the carbon fiber industry is expected to rebound from its low point [4] - The company reported a revenue of 2.635 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.08% [6] - The viscose filament segment continues to be the main source of profit for the company, contributing 1.484 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for 56.3% of total revenue [6] - The carbon fiber segment has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching 443 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 368.31% [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 56 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 188 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.02, 0.04, and 0.08 yuan [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3.883 billion yuan in 2024, 5.340 billion yuan in 2025, 5.775 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.282 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 3.9%, 37.5%, 8.1%, and 8.8% respectively [5] - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 102.2% in 2025 and 96.0% in 2026 [5] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 1,085.98, with future PE ratios expected to decrease to 183, 93, and 54 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic semiconductor substitution due to escalating trade frictions and export controls, particularly from the U.S. government, which may lead to a comprehensive upgrade of semiconductor export controls against China [10][11] - OpenAI is actively building a computing power ecosystem through significant partnerships with major chip manufacturers, including AMD and Samsung, to secure a steady supply of AI chips and enhance its data center capabilities [12][13] - Breakthroughs in solid-state lithium batteries and nuclear fusion technology are reported, indicating advancements in energy storage and generation that could impact the energy sector significantly [13][14] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. House of Representatives has proposed comprehensive export controls on semiconductor equipment to China, which could accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's self-sufficiency and substitution efforts [10] - Recent announcements from the U.S. government regarding export controls on rare earths and other critical materials indicate a deep penetration into global supply chains, further emphasizing the need for domestic alternatives [10] AI Industry - OpenAI's recent developer conference showcased significant user engagement and the introduction of new models and tools, indicating a shift towards making ChatGPT an AI operating system [12] - OpenAI's partnerships with major companies like AMD and Hitachi are aimed at enhancing its computing infrastructure, with investments in AI-specific transformers and cooling systems to support new data centers [12][13] Energy Sector - Significant advancements in solid-state lithium battery technology and nuclear fusion are reported, with potential implications for energy efficiency and sustainability [13][14] - The BEST project in China aims to demonstrate nuclear fusion energy generation by 2030, marking a pivotal moment in energy technology [13][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on emerging industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, which are expected to benefit from domestic substitution policies and technological advancements [14] - Attention is drawn to the AI industry, particularly in areas of computing power performance and energy efficiency, as well as the evolution of edge AI and embodied intelligence [14]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is entering a "stock era" where consumption per capita has peaked, leading to dual pressure on volume and price. This shift necessitates a change in investment logic, with leading companies focusing on shareholder returns and high dividend yields to provide a safety margin [5][18] - Brands are adapting to the trend of consumption substitution by enhancing product cost-effectiveness or quality-price ratios, which may lead to a restructuring of the industry landscape [5] - There are localized opportunities benefiting from consumption upgrades, particularly in categories like juice and liquid milk, where consumers are willing to pay more for improved quality [5] - The emergence of niche products catering to specific consumer groups, particularly among Generation Z, is noted, with these products often having emotional attributes and social relevance [5] - Changes in traffic and channel dynamics present new opportunities for smaller and new brands, with the growth of discount supermarkets and high-end membership stores expected to drive industry growth [5] - Domestic food and beverage brands are increasingly looking to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the market for snacks is projected to exceed $20 billion in 2024, presenting significant growth potential [5] Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Stock Era - The overall consumption market has shown moderate recovery, with retail sales in China reaching 32.39 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [14] - The food and beverage industry shows internal differentiation, with some sub-sectors like fresh meat and edible oils experiencing growth, while others like liquor and beer face declines [15] 2. Brand Breakthrough Paths in Food and Beverage - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing product value propositions to maintain competitive advantages amid rising consumption substitution trends [5] - It highlights the significance of localized consumption upgrades in specific product categories, which can drive higher consumer spending [5] 3. Sub-industry Analysis - The report provides detailed insights into various sub-industries, including liquor, beer, dairy products, condiments, snacks, and soft drinks, analyzing their performance and market dynamics [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the food and beverage sector are increasingly focusing on shareholder returns, with a notable rise in dividend rates, particularly in the liquor industry [33]

Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI for January to August 2025 increased by 0.9%, aligning with the same period in 2021 and exceeding levels from 2022 to 2024[10] - Excluding the impacts of household appliances and gold jewelry, the core CPI growth would drop to 0.4%, consistent with the average over the past five years[16] - The rise in household appliance prices is attributed to consumption subsidy policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, while gold jewelry prices reflect increased demand for hedging and value preservation[16] Group 2: Economic Context - Despite the core CPI's increase, the current economic conditions differ significantly from the strong performance observed in 2021, with service sector PMI remaining below 2021 levels prior to July[10] - Specific categories contributing positively to the CPI include clothing (0.02%), living goods and services (0.13%), healthcare (0.14%), and other goods and services (0.32%), while housing and transportation prices lag behind 2021 figures[17] - The CPI for household appliances has shown significant growth since March 2025, driven by policy-induced demand, contrasting with stable prices in household services[23] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The analysis acknowledges potential estimation biases and insufficient information, indicating that the findings should be interpreted with caution[24] - The report emphasizes that the CPI's strong performance is primarily driven by policy stimuli and external demand factors rather than intrinsic economic growth[16]

Group 1: Domestic Economic Outlook - The central bank confirms the economic recovery momentum and manageable risks, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies[9] - The focus of policy has shifted from "deployment" to "execution and effectiveness," aiming to fully utilize existing policy tools[10] - The economic recovery trend has formed, and current efforts should further consolidate and expand this recovery[11] Group 2: External Economic Environment - The correlation between the A-share market and overseas tech stocks has significantly increased, with potential valuation upside in core tech sectors like semiconductors and AI[14] - The "soft landing" scenario is the current main trading theme in the U.S. capital market, supported by AI industry trends and expected 50 basis points rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025[14] - Despite various risks, the probability of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy is currently viewed as the highest scenario by market participants[17] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks such as re-inflation, economic recession, and potential U.S. government shutdown are acknowledged[22] - The market's trading logic has shifted from "worrying about stagflation" to "trading on rate cuts," resulting in a simultaneous rise in both stocks and bonds[17] - Upcoming economic data releases, particularly the September non-farm payroll and CPI data, are critical for assessing the "soft landing" narrative[18]