批发零售业：2024年5月社零数据点评-618大促驱动社零回暖，金银珠宝短期承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the wholesale and retail industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the retail sector is experiencing a recovery driven by promotional events such as the "618" shopping festival, although the gold and jewelry segment is facing short-term pressure due to high gold prices [1][2]. - In May 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, up from 2.3% in April, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4 percentage points [2]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery in retail sales is primarily attributed to the effects of the "May Day" holiday, the "618" online shopping festival promotions, and policies encouraging the replacement of consumer goods [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sales Performance - The report notes that retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 4.7% year-on-year in May, compared to 3.2% in April, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points [2]. - The retail sales of limited companies in May saw a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, up from 0.9% in April, with a month-on-month increase of 2.5 percentage points [2]. Category Performance - The report indicates that the growth rates for various categories in May were as follows: cosmetics (+18.7%), gold and jewelry (-11.0%), cultural and office supplies (+4.3%), food (+9.3%), and home appliances (+12.9%) [2][11]. - The report also highlights that the growth in service revenue outpaced that of goods, with restaurant income increasing by 5.0% year-on-year [2]. E-commerce Trends - The report states that online retail sales of physical goods saw a year-on-year growth of 11.5% in the first five months of 2024, with online sales accounting for 24.7% of total retail sales in May, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2][10]. - The penetration rate of e-commerce continues to rise, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards online platforms [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on vertical O2O (Online to Offline) and overseas expansion, highlighting companies such as TuHao-W, Miniso, and others as potential investment opportunities [2]. - It also suggests that the long-term outlook for gold jewelry remains promising under the backdrop of the rise of domestic brands, recommending companies like Cai Bai and Lao Feng Xiang [2][12].