宏观经济评论

Economic Outlook - FOMC members expect the median federal funds rate to be 5.1% by the end of this year, 4.1% by the end of 2025, and 3.1% by the end of 2026[3] - The World Bank raised the global economic growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.6%, primarily due to a stronger U.S. economy, which is now projected to grow at 2.5% instead of 1.6%[9] Inflation and Employment - The U.S. May CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.4% and previous 3.4%, with food prices increasing by 0.1% and energy prices decreasing by 2%[9] - The unemployment rate is expected to be 4% by the end of this year and 4.2% by the end of next year[11] Corporate Insights - Apple is expected to benefit significantly from its AI initiatives, with a positive market response reflected in its stock performance[4] - TSMC's 3nm capacity is fully booked until 2026, with high utilization rates for 5nm nodes, leading to potential price increases of over 5% for 3nm and 10-20% for advanced packaging next year[8][29] Market Reactions - Recent political events in Europe, including the rise of right-wing parties, have caused volatility in the French stock market, but cooperation between political leaders has eased some concerns[9] - The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low in early June, indicating potential market caution[23] Company Developments - Tesla's recent shareholder meeting approved a $56 billion compensation plan for Elon Musk, which has alleviated short-term market concerns regarding governance issues[13][26] - Meta has reduced its executive team from 300 to around 250, reflecting a significant workforce reduction of approximately 22% over the past year, which is expected to enhance efficiency and profitability[30]