新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 总第 4969 期 2026 年 2 月 26 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司评论】 美高梅中国控股有限公司（2282，未评级）：第四季度 EBITDA 创新高 【行业评论】 互联网行业周报 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 research@firstshanghai.com 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【公司评论】 王柏俊 | 852 2532 1915 | | | --- | --- | | Patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk | | | 行业 | 博彩和娱乐 | | 股价 | 12.86 港元 | 于 2025 年第 4 季度, 美高梅中国的收益诤额为 96.2 亿港元, 同比增长 21.4%, 环 比增长 13.0% (达 2019 年同期的 169.0%); 经调整后的 EBITDA ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $46.41, indicating a potential upside of 138% from the current stock price of $19.5 [2][4][31]. Core Insights - CARVYKTI sales are experiencing significant growth, with projected revenues of $1.887 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 95.9%. The company is expected to achieve profitability at the company level in 2026 [3][7]. - The company has made substantial investments in production capacity, with four global manufacturing facilities. Approval for commercial production at the Raritan facility is anticipated by the end of Q1 2026, which would increase annual production capacity to 10,000 doses [8][9]. - Competitive analysis shows that while Johnson & Johnson's MajesTEC-3 trial has strong data, the patient demographics differ significantly from those in the CART-4 trial, suggesting that CART-4 patients may have more severe conditions, which could impact treatment outcomes [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenues of $285 million for 2023, with projections of $1.412 billion for 2026 and $1.863 billion for 2027, indicating substantial growth rates of 143.7% and 39.7% respectively [6][32]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of $418 million by 2027, with earnings per share projected to reach $1.13 [6][31]. Production Capacity - The company has invested nearly $1 billion in production facilities, with plans to expand the Gent facility in Belgium, which is expected to increase capacity to 20,000 doses by 2028 [8][9]. - The anticipated FDA approval for the Raritan facility will significantly enhance production capabilities, allowing for rapid scaling in response to market demand [9][10]. Clinical Pipeline - The company is advancing its clinical trials, with the Cartitude-5 trial for first-line non-transplant patients completed and plans to negotiate with the FDA regarding MRD negativity as a potential endpoint for Cartitude-6 [4][27]. - The Cartitude-6 trial is the only ongoing Phase III trial directly comparing CAR-T therapy with autologous stem cell transplantation for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma [28]. Market Position - The report highlights that if the company captures 15-20% of the 2-4 line patient market, it could translate to approximately 10,000 treatments annually, emphasizing the potential for Carvykti as a preferred treatment option [15]. - The competitive landscape indicates that Carvykti's efficacy data provides a significant advantage, particularly for patients seeking long-term remission and potential cures [15][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2]. Core Insights - Tencent's WeChat Pay saw a significant increase in cross-border transaction volume during the Spring Festival, with offline consumption in Hong Kong and Macau growing by 24% and 39% respectively, and a more than 70% increase in mini-program transaction amounts in Hong Kong [2]. - The report highlights Tencent's strategic shift in gaming, closing its Montreal studio to focus on investment and publishing rather than self-developing AAA games, which have high development costs and risks [4]. - Tencent Meeting has achieved over 15 million MAU in overseas markets, with a significant increase in paid subscription penetration from 8% to 12%, indicating strong growth in its SaaS business [5]. Summary by Sections WeChat/Payments - WeChat Pay's offline transaction volume during the Spring Festival increased by over 20% year-on-year, with Hong Kong and Macau showing strong growth [2]. AI/Social - Tencent's "Yuanbao" social payment feature reached a MAU of 114 million, with a peak DAU of over 50 million, demonstrating effective low-cost social penetration strategies [3]. Gaming - The closure of the Montreal studio reflects Tencent's strategic pivot away from high-risk AAA game development towards leveraging partnerships with established overseas teams [4]. Enterprise Services - Tencent Meeting's MAU surpassed 180 million globally, with overseas MAU exceeding 15 million, driven by a 45% year-on-year growth and an increase in paid subscription rates [5].

Company Overview - Legend Biotech (LEGN) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $46.41, representing a potential upside of 138% from the current price of $19.5[5] - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2026, driven by the sales growth of its product CARVYKTI[5] Financial Performance - CARVYKTI generated $1.887 billion in revenue for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 95.9%[10] - The company forecasts total revenue of $1.412 billion for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 39.7%[9] - Legend Biotech's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to turn positive at $0.28 in 2026, after losses in previous years[9] Production Capacity - The company has four global production facilities, with an expected annual capacity of 10,000 doses upon FDA approval in Q1 2026[5] - A $200 million investment is planned to expand the production capacity in Ghent, Belgium, aiming for 20,000 doses by 2028[5] Competitive Landscape - Legend Biotech's CART-4 trial includes a higher percentage of more severe patients compared to Johnson & Johnson's MajesTEC-3 trial, indicating a competitive edge in clinical data[6] Valuation Metrics - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10% and a perpetual growth rate of 0%, leading to a target price of $46.41[8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) with a target price of $300.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.47% from the current price of $213.57 [1][4]. Core Insights - AMD is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its AI GPU sales, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 82.3% from 2026 to 2028 [7]. - The company anticipates strong demand for its next-generation data center products, particularly in the AI sector, with a forecast of over 60% annual growth in data center revenue over the next 3-5 years [4]. - AMD's client product market share continues to grow, with a notable increase in desktop and laptop revenue, and plans to launch a more extensive AI PC product line [4]. - The gaming business has shown robust holiday revenue growth, and the embedded business is recovering, contributing positively to overall performance [4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, AMD's total revenue is projected to be $25.785 billion, increasing to $81.437 billion by 2028, reflecting a growth rate of 13.7% in 2024 and 22.3% in 2028 [3][9]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to rise from $5.420 billion in 2024 to $23.065 billion in 2028, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from $3.3 to $14.3 over the same period [3][9]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 49.4% in 2024 to 56.6% in 2028, indicating enhanced profitability [9][10]. - The company’s operating expenses are expected to grow, but at a controlled rate, with R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing from 25.0% in 2024 to 20.5% in 2028 [9][10].

Group 1: Company Overview - AMD is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $300, indicating a potential upside of 40.47% from the current price of $213.57[5] - The company has a market capitalization of $348.2 billion, with a 52-week high of $267.08 and a low of $76.48[5] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, AMD reported revenue of $10.27 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34.1%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $9.65 billion[7] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 54.3%, up by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, while operating profit reached $1.75 billion, a 101.1% increase[7] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2025 was $2.52 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 41.8%[7] Group 3: Future Projections - AMD's revenue guidance for Q1 2026 is set at $9.8 billion, which includes $100 million from MI308 sales in China, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.4%[7] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% for its data center business over the next 3-5 years, with AI business revenues expected to reach hundreds of billions by 2027[8] Group 4: Market Share and Product Development - AMD's client segment revenue grew by 33.9% to $3.1 billion, with desktop and laptop market shares at 33.6% and 21.9%, respectively[9] - The company plans to launch a more extensive AI PC product line this year, following the successful release of the Ryzen AI 400 mobile processors[9] Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected sales of AI acceleration chips, lower-than-expected growth in PC market share, and challenges in the recovery of gaming and embedded businesses[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies across various sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the near future [12]. Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a significant shift towards AI applications, with traditional SaaS software facing headwinds due to the emergence of AI tools that automate various tasks [4][5]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to remain strong, with supply constraints leading to a focus on leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang [6]. - The AI-driven inflation is affecting the electronics industry, with price increases observed in power devices and other components [7]. - The report highlights the importance of CPU performance in the Agentic AI era, suggesting that CPU shortages could enhance profitability for leading companies in this space [6]. - The advanced packaging industry is poised for growth due to increased demand driven by AI investments, with recommendations for companies like Longji Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics [8]. - Domestic computing power is expected to see significant opportunities, particularly with the launch of new generation chips [9]. - The IC substrate supply chain is facing bottlenecks, with recommendations for domestic companies that could benefit from price increases [10]. Summary by Sections Technology Sector - AI applications are gaining traction, leading to concerns about the impact on traditional SaaS [4]. - Major companies are releasing AI programming tools, enhancing productivity in various fields [5]. Optical Modules - Strong demand is anticipated in the optical module industry, with supply constraints favoring leading firms [6]. Electronics Industry - AI inflation is spreading, causing price hikes in various electronic components, particularly in power devices [7]. CPU Market - The performance of CPUs is becoming increasingly critical, with potential shortages expected to boost profitability for leading firms [6]. Advanced Packaging - The advanced packaging sector is expected to benefit from AI investments, with several companies recommended for investment [8]. Domestic Computing Power - New generation computing chips are set to launch, presenting significant opportunities for domestic firms [9]. IC Substrate Supply Chain - The IC substrate market is experiencing supply constraints, with recommendations for companies likely to benefit from price increases [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent's stock price experienced a significant drop due to rumors regarding an increase in value-added tax, which was later clarified to not affect Tencent's core business, providing a potential buying opportunity for investors [2]. - Tencent's AI initiatives are advancing, with the launch of a technical blog by the chief AI scientist, showcasing a new benchmark that addresses the limitations of current models in real-time learning, which could enhance Tencent's competitive edge in AI applications [3]. - The "Yuanbao" app has gained significant traction, reaching the top of the App Store with an estimated peak daily active users (DAU) exceeding 20 million, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [4]. - The return of the mobile version of "QQ Classic Farm" is expected to activate long-tail users and contribute an estimated revenue of 1 to 2 billion yuan in its first year, reflecting Tencent's strategy to leverage classic IPs for user engagement [5]. Summary by Sections Stock Performance - Tencent's stock price fell below 600 HKD due to market misinterpretation of tax changes, but the fundamentals remain intact, presenting a low-cost entry point for investors [2]. AI Developments - The launch of the CL-bench benchmark by Tencent's AI team aims to improve real-time learning capabilities, marking a shift from merely chasing parameters to defining paradigms in AI [3]. App Performance - The "Yuanbao" app's success in the App Store indicates a strong user engagement strategy, although concerns about user retention in the WeChat ecosystem remain [4]. Game Strategy - The reintroduction of "QQ Classic Farm" aims to activate dormant users and is projected to generate significant revenue, showcasing Tencent's focus on mobile adaptations of classic games [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a focus on the company, indicating that it is undervalued with a reasonable valuation range of over HKD 25 billion [21]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from traditional generic drugs to a dual-driven strategy focusing on "aesthetic medicine and innovative drugs," leading to a significant revenue increase in the aesthetic segment [21]. - The aesthetic medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 81% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, contributing significantly to the company's overall revenue growth [4][11]. - The innovative drug segment is expected to enter a revenue realization phase with the commercialization of new drugs, enhancing the company's financial outlook [12][16]. Summary by Sections Aesthetic Medicine - In H1 2025, aesthetic medicine revenue increased by 81% to HKD 5.9 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 8 percentage points to 73% [4][11]. - The core product, Letybo (botulinum toxin), has a market penetration of less than 2% in China, indicating substantial growth potential compared to higher penetration rates in the US and South Korea [5]. - The company has three major products approved in 2025, including facial fillers and water light needles, which are expected to drive significant sales growth [9][10]. Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug segment reported a 30% revenue increase to HKD 0.17 billion in H1 2025, with a focus on gastrointestinal and oncology treatments [12]. - The company has successfully commercialized its first innovative PPI drug, which is expected to maintain its price in the national basic medical insurance directory [12][14]. - The company holds a 49.13% stake in Xuan Zhu Bio, which has a market capitalization of HKD 34.5 billion, further enhancing its financial position [12]. Biopharmaceuticals - The biopharmaceutical segment, focusing on diabetes, has a comprehensive pipeline with over 20 products, and revenue is expected to see explosive growth in the next 2-3 years [17][18]. - The company reported a 40-fold increase in revenue to HKD 0.39 billion in H1 2025, with a focus on insulin and innovative diabetes treatments [17][18]. Generic Drugs - Generic drug revenue decreased by 16% to HKD 5.0 billion in H1 2025, accounting for 44% of total revenue, but the impact is expected to lessen as aesthetic and innovative drug segments grow [19]. - Key products include Clinao (a unique injection) and a mucosal solution for children, which are positioned to capture niche markets [19]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by aesthetic and innovative drugs, alongside reduced R&D expenses [20]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 89% in H1 2025, reflecting strong cash flow management [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla with a target price of $520.00, representing a 23% upside from the current price of $421.90 [3][5]. Core Insights - Tesla is accelerating the expansion of its Robotaxi fleet and moving towards large-scale AI and autonomous driving solutions. The Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, is set to begin production in April 2026, which is expected to significantly optimize cost per mile and increase utilization [5][29]. - By the end of 2026, Tesla aims to have its Robotaxi service operational in 25-50% of the U.S. market, with over 500 vehicles already deployed in the Bay Area and Austin [5][29]. - The company is transitioning to a subscription model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) service, which currently has nearly 1.1 million paid users, representing a 12% penetration rate among existing vehicles [5][35]. - Tesla plans to invest $2 billion in xAI to enhance its AI capabilities, which will integrate with its vehicle ecosystem [5][31]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Tesla's total revenue is projected to be $97.69 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.95% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to grow significantly in the following years, reaching $176.92 billion by 2028 [4][36]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is estimated at $7.96 billion, with a projected increase to $17.92 billion by 2028 [4][36]. - The report indicates that Tesla's automotive gross margin is expected to recover to 17.9% in the fourth quarter, with a focus on improving production efficiency and cost management [10][12]. Production and Capacity - Tesla plans to cease production of the Model S and Model X in early 2026 to repurpose the production lines for the Cybertruck, with a long-term production target of 1 million units annually [5][26]. - The Cybercab is expected to become the highest volume model in the long term, although initial production ramp-up may be slow due to the use of new customized components [5][29]. - Tesla's global production capacity is projected to exceed 2.35 million units, with significant expansions planned in Texas and Nevada [5][26]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, estimating Tesla's revenue for 2026 to 2028 at $114 billion, $141 billion, and $176 billion, respectively. The calculated fair stock price of $520.00 corresponds to a 166x multiple of projected Non-GAAP earnings per share for 2026 [5][33].