行业评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 1 月 15 日 【行业评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 罗凡环 852-25321962 simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 TMT 互联网行业周报 【外卖行业】监管部门对外卖行业开展调查，即时零售监管动态回顾 1 月 9 日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室启动对外卖平台服务行业的反 垄断调查，重点整治"拼补贴、拼价格、控流量"等乱象，美团、淘宝闪购、京东 外卖等平台表态坚决支持调查，承诺配合整改并推动行业健康发展。 此前，监管部门曾多次进行约谈并进行规范性要求。本次介入或将加速行业洗牌， 推动平台从"流量争夺"转向"价值创造"，最终实现消费者、商户、配送员与平 台的多方共赢。 图表 1: 即时零售行业监管动态 2025年4月 京东进军外卖市场， 引发美团、淘宝闪购加入补贴大战， 行业陷入价格竞争。 2025年5月 市场监管总局首次约谈外卖平台， 要求落实公平竞争相关要求， 但效果有限。 2025年7 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 1 月 15 日 星期四 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk Robotaxi：奥斯汀和湾区扩大 Cybercab 车队 1 月 5 日，特斯拉已在奥斯汀和加州湾区扩大了其 Cybercab 测试车队。据 Robot axi Tracker 报道，目前共有 7 辆 Cybercab 出租车在运营。马斯克表示，特斯拉 已经在位于奥斯汀郊外的德克萨斯超级工厂开始了该车型的部分测试生产阶段。目 前 Robotaxi 车队在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区共有 139 辆车，其中绝大多数是 Model Y， Cybercab 是最新加入车队的车型。 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk | 行业 | 汽车 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 447.20 美元 | | 市值 | 1.49 万亿美元 | | 总股本 | 33.26 亿股 | | 52 周高/低 | 498.83 美元/ | | | 214.25 ...

总第 4944 期 2026 年 1 月 15 日 星期四 研究观点 新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 【行业评论】 互联网行业周报 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【公司评论】 李京霖 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk Robotaxi：奥斯汀和湾区扩大 Cybercab 车队 1 月 5 日，特斯拉已在奥斯汀和加州湾区扩大了其 Cybercab 测试车队。据 Robo taxi Tracker 报道，目前共有 7 辆 Cybercab 出租车在运营。马斯克表示，特斯 拉已经在位于奥斯汀郊外的德克萨斯超级工厂开始了该车型的部分测试生产阶 段。目前 Rob ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the domestic computing power industry, including Cambrian (688256) and SMIC (0981.HK) [7][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the certainty of investment opportunities in the domestic computing power sector, driven by the upcoming release of the new generation of computing power chips, represented by H Company’s 950 series, which will enter mass production in the first quarter [5][6]. - The domestic computing power industry is expected to see significant growth, with ByteDance projected to invest 150 billion in global computing power procurement in 2026, of which 60-65 billion is expected to be allocated domestically, with over 40 billion for domestic computing power [6]. - The report suggests that the impact of the H200 release on the domestic computing power industry will be limited, as the primary application scenarios differ from those of domestic solutions [6]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The domestic computing power sector has faced challenges due to U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor processes and key materials. However, breakthroughs are anticipated starting in the second half of 2025, with improved collaboration between chip design companies and foundries expected to enhance production yields by 2026 [5][6]. - The report highlights the optimization of the supply chain and the collaboration between hardware and software, which has significantly improved the usability of domestic computing power in AI inference scenarios [5]. Demand Side - The demand for computing power in 2026 is becoming clearer, with major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent also planning significant investments in domestic computing power [6]. - The report notes that the three major telecom operators are expected to increase their procurement of domestic computing power to meet the growing demand from AI applications [6]. Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends focusing on Cambrian (688256) as a representative of domestic computing power card suppliers and SMIC (0981.HK) as a leading foundry. Additionally, attention is drawn to Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) for its advancements in advanced processes [7]. - The report also suggests monitoring companies related to domestic IC substrates due to supply bottlenecks caused by shortages of upstream materials, recommending companies like Shenzhen South Circuit (002916) and Pengding Holdings (002938) [7]. Overseas Computing Power Industry - The report observes a shift in the driving force of AI computing power from training large models to deploying inference applications, with companies like Google leading advancements in model capabilities [8][9]. - The report anticipates continued high growth in AI application-driven computing power demand, with major companies expected to double their computing power every six months over the next few years [10].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the internet and AI sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [15]. Core Insights - The internet industry is experiencing significant advancements, particularly in AI applications, with companies like Alibaba's Gaode and Tencent leading the charge in integrating AI into their services [5][7]. - The AI model industry is transitioning from a focus on technology exploration to commercial value realization, as evidenced by the upcoming IPOs of companies like Zhipu and MiniMax [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Alibaba - Alibaba's Gaode has launched a world model initiative, leveraging extensive positioning data and innovative architecture to transition from a navigation app to a physical world engine [5][6]. Tencent - Tencent has initiated an AI mini-program growth plan, providing resources and support to developers, aiming to enhance the AI application ecosystem within its platforms [7]. ByteDance - ByteDance's Volcano Engine has become the exclusive AI cloud partner for the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, showcasing its capabilities and solidifying its position in the AI cloud market [8]. Kuaishou - Kuaishou's AI product, Keling, has seen a significant increase in revenue, particularly in overseas markets, driven by innovative features and effective marketing strategies [10][11]. AI Model Industry - The AI model sector is witnessing a competitive landscape with Zhipu and MiniMax preparing for IPOs, marking a shift towards monetization and capital market engagement [12][13]. Company Valuations - The report includes detailed valuations and target prices for various companies, with many receiving a "Buy" rating based on their projected earnings and market potential [15].

Company Overview - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) current stock price is HKD 632, with a market capitalization of HKD 5.769 trillion[4] - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 683 and a low of HKD 360.3[4] AI Initiatives - Tencent launched the "AI Application and Online Tools Mini Program Growth Plan," providing 100 million tokens and six months of free cloud development to lower entry barriers for developers[6] - The introduction of the "Generate PPT" feature in Tencent's AI assistant ima.copilot enhances productivity and aims to capture a significant market share in the B2B SaaS sector[8] Gaming Performance - Tencent remains the global leader in mobile game revenue, with "Honor of Kings" generating over USD 2 billion in 2025, while "Delta Action" saw a 2900% year-on-year revenue increase, surpassing USD 500 million[7] - The gaming segment demonstrates strong resilience, with a robust pipeline of new and existing titles supporting future earnings[7] Investment Strategy - MiniMax, a major investment by Tencent, recorded an oversubscription of HKD 253.3 billion, with a subscription rate of 1209 times, indicating strong market interest[9] - Tencent holds a 2.37% stake in MiniMax, reinforcing its dual strategy of self-development and investment in the AI sector[9] Valuation Metrics - Tencent's estimated target price is HKD 790, with a 24PE ratio for 2024 and a projected CAGR of 17.4%[11] - The company's net asset value per share is HKD 141.85, indicating a solid financial foundation[4]

Group 1: Company Overview - 美丽田园 (2373) is a leading one-stop beauty and health management service provider, focusing on a "dual beauty + dual health" collaborative business model[7] - The company operates multiple brands, including 美丽田园, 奈瑞儿, and 秀可儿, covering a full lifecycle of services from beauty to health management[7] - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 61.2 billion and a total share capital of 235 million shares[6] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of RMB 1,459 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%[8] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 191 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.1%, marking a historical high[8] - The company’s EPS for 2025 is projected at HKD 1.476, with a growth rate of 34.5%[10] Group 3: Valuation and Ratings - The target price for 美丽田园 is set at HKD 43.7, representing a potential upside of 65.4% from the current price of HKD 26.36[9] - The company is rated as "Buy," with a PE ratio of 29.8 for 2025 and 24.5 for 2026[9] - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model with a 10% discount rate and a 3% perpetual growth rate, yielding a reasonable value of HKD 103 billion[9] Group 4: Market Trends and Strategy - 美丽田园 is positioned to lead the industry transformation towards branding, chain operations, and digitalization, capitalizing on its multi-brand strategy and extensive store network[8] - The company maintains a customer repurchase rate of over 80% and an acquisition cost below 2%, indicating strong operational efficiency[7] - The company is actively pursuing both organic growth and strategic acquisitions to enhance its market presence and profitability[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Boeing with a target price of $240.00, representing a potential upside of 16.79% from the current stock price of $205.50 [2][30]. Core Insights - The recovery of cash flow is driven by increased aircraft deliveries, with production rates for the 737 and 787 expected to rise [3][7]. - The delivery schedule for the 777X is critical for the company's cash flow recovery, with expectations for cash flow breakeven around 2028 [7][13]. - Boeing's commercial aircraft segment (BCA) reported a revenue increase of 49.1% year-over-year, although it still faced significant operating losses due to delays in the 777X project [17][24]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, Boeing's actual revenue was $77.794 billion, with a projected revenue of $88.078 billion for 2025, reflecting a growth of 32.41% [5]. - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $53.4 billion for Q3 2025, translating to a loss of $7.14 per share, which was worse than market expectations [9][30]. - The operating loss for the commercial aircraft segment was $53.5 billion, primarily due to the 777X delays, with a significant impact on the operating profit margin [17][24]. Production and Delivery Outlook - Boeing expects to increase the production rate of the 737 MAX to 42 units per month by October 2025 and plans to enhance the production capacity of the 787 to support a rate of 12-14 units per month [7][22]. - The total backlog for commercial aircraft exceeds 5,900 units, valued at approximately $534.6 billion, indicating strong future demand [20][30]. Segment Performance - The Defense, Space & Security (BDS) segment generated $6.9 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of 24.7%, with stable order growth [24]. - The Global Services (BGS) segment reported $5.37 billion in revenue, up 9.6% year-over-year, driven by increased maintenance orders from commercial airlines [27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2]. Core Insights - Tencent's "Friend Praise" social discount activity on WeChat aims to enhance user engagement and drive e-commerce transactions by leveraging social relationships, offering up to 45% subsidies to users [2]. - Tencent's gaming revenue from overseas markets has surpassed that of Electronic Arts (EA), with a decentralized empowerment model that allows studios creative autonomy, contributing to a more resilient gaming ecosystem [3]. - Tencent Cloud's native API has seen explosive growth, with daily calls exceeding 10 billion and over 1 million developers served, marking a shift from resource selling to capability services [4]. - Tencent's first digital therapy product has entered clinical application, showcasing the integration of gaming technology into healthcare and establishing a commercial closed loop for future digital therapy products [5]. Summary by Sections E-commerce - The launch of "Friend Praise" on WeChat targets private domain conversion, allowing users to invite friends to like products for exclusive discounts, thus enhancing product exposure and conversion rates [2]. Gaming - Elon Musk's endorsement of Tencent's gaming strategy highlights its success in overseas markets, where its revenue has outpaced EA, emphasizing a non-interfering investment approach that fosters creativity [3]. Cloud Services - Tencent Cloud's API usage has surpassed 10 billion daily calls, indicating its robust architecture and the transition to providing standardized API services for developers, facilitating digital transformation [4]. Healthcare - The introduction of Tencent's digital therapy product in clinical settings represents a significant advancement in applying gaming technology to medical interventions, establishing a precedent for future digital health solutions [5].

Group 1: Boeing Financial Performance - Boeing reported Q3 2025 revenue of $23.27 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus of $21.9 billion[6] - The company experienced a GAAP net loss of $5.34 billion, translating to a loss of $7.14 per share, which was worse than the expected loss of $2.31 per share[6] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was $1.12 billion, with free cash flow turning positive at $240 million, marking the first positive cash flow since Q4 2023[6] Group 2: Production and Delivery Outlook - Boeing's BCA segment revenue reached $11.09 billion, up 49.1% year-over-year, despite an operating loss of $5.35 billion[7] - The production rate for the 737 MAX is expected to increase to 42 aircraft per month by October 2025, with capital expenditures projected to rise in 2026 to support a 12-14 aircraft monthly production rate for the 787[7] - The delivery schedule for the 777X is critical for the company's cash flow recovery, with expectations of breakeven cash flow around 2028[8] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - The target price for Boeing is set at $240.00, representing a 16.79% upside from the current price of $205.50[5] - A DCF model was used for valuation, with a WACC of 8.5% and a perpetual growth rate of 2%[9] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on projected production and delivery improvements from 2025 to 2027[9] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include slow consumer confidence recovery due to accidents, competition from Airbus A320Neo and A350 affecting market share, and geopolitical tensions between the US and China[10]