新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4853 期 2025 年 9 月 5 日 星期五 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 蜜雪集团 | 2097 | 买入 买入 576.40 | 482.80 | 19% | 15.150 | 13.790 | 10% | 18.140 | 15.860 | 14% | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 研究观点 【公司研究】 蜜雪集团（2097 ...

Group 1: MINISO Performance - MINISO achieved revenue of 4.97 billion CNY in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, exceeding company guidance[7] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 690 million CNY, up 10.6% year-on-year[7] - For H1 2025, MINISO's revenue reached 9.39 billion CNY, a 21.1% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of 1.28 billion CNY, up 3.0%[7] Group 2: Store Expansion and Strategy - As of H1 2025, MINISO had 4,305 stores in China, a net decrease of 80 stores since the beginning of the year[8] - The company successfully opened the MINISO LAND flagship store in Shanghai, achieving over 100 million CNY in sales within 9 months[8] - Internationally, MINISO's revenue reached 3.53 billion CNY in H1 2025, a 29.4% increase year-on-year, with 3,307 overseas stores, net adding 189 stores[8] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Projections - MINISO's gross margin for H1 2025 was 44.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year[10] - The company’s operating profit margin for H1 2025 was 16.5%, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while adjusted net profit margin was 13.6%, down 2.4 percentage points[10] - The target price for MINISO is set at 58.23 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of 47.88 HKD[12] Group 4: Alibaba Performance - Alibaba's cloud service revenue grew by 2% year-on-year, driven by strong AI demand[18] - The company reported a net profit of 42.38 billion CNY in the latest quarter, up from 24 billion CNY year-on-year[18] - Alibaba's target price is set at 166.00 USD, with a buy rating based on projected revenues of 1,032.93 billion CNY for FY2026[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics with a target price of HKD 62, indicating a potential upside of 50.5% from the current price of HKD 41.18 [5][6]. Core Insights - BYD Electronics reported a revenue of RMB 80.6 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.58%, with a net profit of RMB 1.73 billion, reflecting a growth of 14% [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding into AI data centers and robotics, which are seen as key growth areas, with significant investments in R&D for enterprise-level servers and AI solutions [4][5]. - The automotive electronics segment is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 35%-40% in 2025, driven by the delivery of high-value products such as smart cockpit and intelligent driving systems [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the actual revenue was RMB 129.96 billion, with a projected revenue of RMB 190.73 billion for 2025, representing a growth of 7.6% [7][8]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 4.04 billion, with forecasts of RMB 4.71 billion for 2025, indicating a growth of 10.5% [7][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 1.79 in 2023 to RMB 2.09 in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.5% [7][8]. Business Segments - Revenue distribution for the first half of 2025 shows consumer electronics at RMB 60.9 billion, a slight decline, while the new energy vehicle segment generated RMB 12.45 billion, a significant increase of 60% [3][4]. - The new intelligent products segment, including data center-related business, contributed RMB 7.2 billion, with RMB 1 billion specifically from data center operations [3][4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for BYD Electronics from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 190.7 billion, RMB 211.1 billion, and RMB 227.4 billion, with respective growth rates of 7.6%, 10.7%, and 7.7% [5][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 4.71 billion, RMB 6.36 billion, and RMB 7.64 billion, with growth rates of 10.5%, 34.8%, and 20.3% respectively [5][7].

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Exchange (388) - Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported revenue of HKD 14.1 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33%[6] - Net profit for H1 2025 reached HKD 8.5 billion, up 39% year-on-year[6] - Daily average trading amount in the cash market reached HKD 222.8 billion, a 122% increase year-on-year[7] - The exchange's EBITDA for H1 2025 was HKD 10.9 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 79%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year[6][10] Group 2: Yili Group (600887) - Yili Group achieved total revenue of RMB 61.93 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[15] - Net profit for H1 2025 was RMB 7.2 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year, but showed a significant recovery in Q2 with a 44.6% increase[15] - The company’s liquid milk revenue was RMB 36.13 billion, a slight decline of 2.1% year-on-year, while milk powder revenue grew by 14.3%[16] Group 3: Futu Holdings (FUTU) - Futu Holdings reported total revenue of HKD 5.311 billion in Q2 2025, a 69.7% increase year-on-year[23] - The company achieved a net profit of HKD 2.57 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 112.7% year-on-year growth[24] - Customer assets reached HKD 973.9 billion, a 68.1% increase year-on-year[26] Group 4: BYD Electronics (0285) - BYD Electronics reported revenue of RMB 80.6 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.58%[35] - Net profit for H1 2025 was RMB 1.73 billion, up 14% year-on-year[35] - The company’s revenue from the new energy vehicle business grew by 60%, accounting for over 15% of total revenue[35] Group 5: Meili Tianyuan (2373.HK) - Meili Tianyuan achieved revenue of HKD 1.46 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%[42] - The company’s net profit rose by 35.5% to HKD 170 million in H1 2025[42] - Active membership increased significantly, with a 47.8% rise in foot traffic to 920,000 visits in the first half of 2025[43]

Group 1: Company Research - SUTENG JUCHUANG (2498) - SUTENG JUCHUANG's Q2 revenue reached 455 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%[6] - ADAS product sales decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, while robot business sales surged by 631.9% to 34,000 units, driving a 184.8% increase in revenue for the robot segment to 220 million RMB[6] - The company's gross margin has improved for six consecutive quarters, reaching 27.7%, and net loss narrowed significantly by 63.6%[6] - The target price for SUTENG JUCHUANG is set at 47.43 HKD, representing a potential upside of 23% from the current price[10] Group 2: Company Research - Lianyi Rong Technology (9959) - Lianyi Rong Technology's revenue for H1 2025 was 375 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% due to pressures from supply chain asset securitization[16] - The company reported an adjusted net loss of 372 million RMB, with impairment losses increasing to 270 million RMB[16] - The core business, multi-level circulation cloud, processed supply chain assets totaling 1,332 million RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 54.4%[17] - The target price for Lianyi Rong Technology has been raised to 4.0 HKD, reflecting a 45% upside potential[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 4.0, indicating a potential upside of 45% from the current price of HKD 2.8 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has released historical impairment pressures and is positioned for future growth, with a total supply chain asset volume of CNY 203.6 billion expected by H1 2025, driven by strong performance in its multi-level circulation cloud segment [2]. - Despite a year-over-year revenue decline of 9.3% to CNY 375 million, the company is optimizing its business structure and maintaining a cautious impairment provision strategy, resulting in an adjusted net loss of CNY 372 million [2][3]. - The company has committed to a share buyback of no less than USD 8 million in the next 12 months, reflecting its focus on shareholder returns [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of CNY 867.76 million, a decrease of 6.1% from the previous year, with a projected revenue of CNY 1.03 billion for 2024 [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 was a loss of CNY 286.27 million, with forecasts indicating a continued loss of CNY 748.18 million in 2024, but a return to profitability is expected by 2026 with a net profit of CNY 171.95 million [6][10]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, reaching 80.3% by 2026, up from 60.7% in 2023 [10]. Business Segments - The core business, particularly the multi-level circulation cloud, is expected to handle supply chain assets totaling CNY 1.332 trillion by H1 2025, marking a year-over-year growth of 54.4% [3]. - The AMS cloud segment is currently under pressure, with a 20.2% decline in supply chain asset handling to CNY 29.9 billion, primarily due to market conditions [3]. - The company is also expanding its global footprint, with cross-border cloud assets and revenues growing by 20.3% to CNY 26 million, driven by increased financing and service fees [4].

Market Performance - Bitcoin's market share decreased from 61% at the beginning of the month to 57%, indicating a shift in market funds towards Ethereum[3] - Ethereum reached a historical high of $4,950, while Bitcoin fell back to the critical support level of $112,000 after a brief increase following Fed Chair Powell's speech[3] Regulatory and Policy Updates - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, which initially boosted risk assets, but the probability of maintaining rates at the September FOMC meeting rose to 36%[7] - Both China and the US are actively developing stablecoin strategies, with China considering a new roadmap for RMB internationalization that includes stablecoins as a core focus[7] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 45, indicating a neutral market sentiment[12] - Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.2 billion over six days, reflecting temporary weakness in institutional demand[16] Ethereum ETF Performance - Ethereum ETFs showed stable inflows, contrasting with the outflows seen in Bitcoin ETFs, with a total inflow of approximately $598.5 million over the observed period[18]

Company Overview - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) current stock price is HKD 600, with a market capitalization of HKD 5.416 trillion and total shares outstanding of 9.171 billion[4] - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 620 and a low of HKD 360.3[4] Gaming Sector - Tencent showcased new gaming developments at Gamescom 2025, emphasizing "AI + content + globalization" with an automation rate exceeding 90% in art production[6] - The mobile game "Valorant: Source Action" launched on August 19, 2025, generating approximately USD 1 million in revenue on its first day in China alone, with global pre-registrations surpassing 70 million and projected annual revenue of RMB 5-6 billion[7] Corporate Services - Tencent released WeChat Work 5.0, integrating AI capabilities to enhance office efficiency, with features like intelligent search and automatic summarization[8] - The platform connects over 14 million enterprises and serves more than 750 million users daily, marking a significant advancement in AI-driven corporate solutions[8] Financial Metrics - The net asset value per share is HKD 132.86[10] - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 725, reflecting a 21% upside potential from the current price[12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD.US) is expected to report total revenue of 103.2 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.3%. Online marketing revenue is projected to be 54.9 billion yuan, up 11.8%, while transaction service revenue is anticipated to reach 48.2 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% [4]. - Operating expenses are expected to total 40.6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 31.8%, with a corresponding expense ratio of 38.9%. Marketing expenses are projected to rise by 35.1% to 35.2 billion yuan, while management and R&D expenses are expected to grow modestly [4]. - The anticipated operating profit is 21 billion yuan, down 35.6% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 20.3%. Non-GAAP operating profit is expected to be 23.3 billion yuan, a decline of 33.4%, with a profit margin of 22.6% [4]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be 3.22 yuan, equating to 13.64 yuan per ADS [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Pinduoduo is focusing on sustainable growth and enhancing its platform ecosystem, particularly through its differentiated "Duoduo Maicai" business, which is effectively operating in the instant retail sector [5]. Market Context - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with uncertainties surrounding tariffs affecting the cross-border e-commerce industry. A recent agreement between the US and China to pause additional tariffs for 90 days may provide some relief, but the lack of a stable trade agreement continues to pose risks [5]. Financial Performance Expectations - The company is set to release its Q2 2025 financial results on August 25, 2025, with an earnings call scheduled for 19:30 Beijing time [6].

Group 1 - The investment rating for Kuaishou is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 100.00, representing a 34% upside potential [6][10]. - Kuaishou's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching CNY 35.046 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, driven by user engagement and AI-enabled business [6][10]. - The company declared its first special dividend of HKD 0.46 per share, totaling approximately HKD 2 billion, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6][10]. Group 2 - The investment rating for Times Electric is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 51.30, indicating a 3% upside potential [14][15]. - Times Electric reported a revenue of CNY 12.21 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with net profit growing by 12.9% [14][15]. - The company is optimistic about its rail transit business, which is expected to benefit from increased demand for maintenance services [14][15]. Group 3 - The investment rating for Leap Motor is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 97.40, suggesting an 11% upside potential [20][23]. - Leap Motor achieved a revenue of CNY 24.25 billion in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 174%, with a net profit of CNY 0.3 billion [17][20]. - The company is expanding its sales network and plans to enhance its service system to strengthen its competitive edge [17][20].