新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4925 期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 星期二 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 博通（美元） | AVGO | 买入 买入 420.00 | 420.00 | 0% | 8.700 | 4.800 | 81% | 13.600 | 7.500 | 81% | | 露露乐檬（美元） | LULU | 买入 持有 240.60 | 400.00 | -40% | 12.980 | 15.130 | -14% | 12.660 | 16.440 | -23% | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 | 买入 买入 134.70 | 440.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $4.20, representing a potential upside of 77.1% from the current price of $2.38 [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 30.7% to RMB 1.58 billion for FY25Q3, surpassing previous guidance [3]. - Non-GAAP operating loss significantly narrowed to RMB 169 million from RMB 476 million year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3]. - The company expects revenue growth of 17.2%-18.7% for FY25Q4, with projected revenue between RMB 1.628 billion and RMB 1.648 billion [5]. Revenue and Business Performance - The education segment remains robust, contributing approximately 80% of total revenue, with non-academic training and traditional K12 services growing over 35% year-on-year [4]. - Non-academic training revenue surged by over 60% year-on-year, with expectations of achieving double-digit profit margins for the full year [4]. - Adult and college student business segments also showed strong performance, with college student revenue increasing by 50% year-on-year [4]. Financial Outlook - For FY25, the company anticipates a total non-GAAP operating loss of RMB 510 million, reflecting adjustments in recruitment and business strategies [5]. - The company projects a 15% year-on-year revenue growth for FY26, indicating a positive long-term outlook [5]. Financial Summary - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of RMB 3.04 billion as of FY25Q3, with no interest-bearing debt [3]. - The financial forecast shows a gradual improvement in profitability, with non-GAAP operating profit margins expected to turn positive by FY26 [8].

Company Research - 康方生物预计2025年每股收益（EPS）为-1.110港元，2026年为0.966港元，目标价提升至144.90港元，较现价有23.4%上升空间[7][9] - 滴滴出行2025年目标价为6.89美元，较现价有37%上升空间，预计2025年总营收为2235亿元人民币[3][16] - 高途预计2025年每股收益为-1.00人民币，目标价为4.20美元，较现价有77.1%上升空间[19][22] Financial Performance - 康方生物2025年上半年产品收入同比增长49.2%至14.0亿元，毛利率为79.4%[7] - 滴滴出行2025年上半年中国市场总交易额为1605.69亿元，同比增长10.8%[13] - 高途2025年第三季度收入同比增长30.7%至15.8亿元，经营亏损大幅减至1.69亿元[19][20] Market Trends - 康方生物的AK112药物预计在2025年第四季度递交美国BLA，潜在峰值销售额为80亿美元[8][9] - 滴滴出行在海外市场的GTV预计2025年达到1150亿元，按固定汇率计算同比增长34.8%[14][16] - 高途的非学科培训业务收入同比增长超过60%，显示出强劲增长势头[20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 144.9, indicating a potential upside of 23.4% from the current price of HKD 117.4 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in product revenue by 49.2% year-on-year to RMB 1.4 billion in the first half of 2025, despite a net loss of RMB 570 million, which is an increase of 139% in losses compared to the previous year [1]. - The company has made substantial progress in its product pipeline, with multiple drugs in various stages of clinical trials and approvals, including AK104 and AK112, which have shown promising results in treating various cancers [2]. - The financial outlook shows a projected revenue increase from RMB 2.1 billion in 2024 to RMB 5.6 billion by 2027, with a recovery in net profit expected by 2027 [4][7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 4.53 billion, with a gross margin of 97.1% [4][7]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive by 2027, with an estimated net profit of RMB 260 million [4][7]. - The company has a strong cash position, with net cash expected to be RMB 5.8 billion post-financing activities [1].

中国银河（6881） 更新报告 买入 2025 年 12 月 12 日 黎航荣 wayne.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 852 2522 2101 主要数据 | 行业 | 券商/非银 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 10.05 港元 | | 目标价 | 12.66 港元 | | | (+25.9%) | | 股票代码 | 6881 | | 港股股本 | 36.91 亿股 | | 港股市值 | 370.94 亿港元 | | 52 周高/低 | 12.83 港元/5.91 港元 | | 每股净资产 | 11.78 元 | | 主要股东 | 中金汇金(47.43%) | 财富管理优势凸显，自营投资延续高增 | 盈利摘要 | | | | | 股价表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 财务年度截至12月31日 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（亿元） | 336 | 355 | 308 | 342 | 361 | | 变动(%) | 0.0% | 5.4% | -13.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.02, representing a potential upside of 57% from the current price of HKD 1.92 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is strategically embracing AI, which is expected to stabilize and improve its business performance. The focus is on high-quality business development and optimizing revenue sources, leading to a significant improvement in gross margin [7]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 775 million in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a strategic reduction in low-margin businesses. However, it achieved an adjusted net profit of RMB 17 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 187 million in the same period of 2024 [7]. - The advertising business is under pressure due to policy adjustments and environmental factors, but there is an expectation for gradual recovery in 2026 as consumer spending improves [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, was RMB 2,227,684 thousand, with a projected decline to RMB 1,339,255 thousand in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 1,612,762 thousand in 2025 [4][9]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 767,674 thousand in 2023 to a loss of RMB 521,922 thousand in 2025, indicating a trend towards profitability [4][9]. - The gross margin is projected to increase from 67% in 2023 to 71% in 2025, reflecting improved operational efficiency [9][10].

Company Research: Shanghai Fudan - In Q3 2025, Shanghai Fudan achieved revenue of 1.19 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%[5] - The gross profit margin improved to 61.1%, up by 9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased FPGA product shipments[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 137 million RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 121 million RMB, reflecting a 59.2% year-on-year growth[5] FPGA Business Outlook - FPGA business revenue grew by 34.7% year-on-year, driven by demand for 28nm FPGA products[6] - The next-generation 1xnm FinFET FPGA products are expected to contribute to revenue starting in 2026, with a projected 38.6% growth in FPGA revenue to 1.47 billion RMB in FY 2025[6] Valuation and Rating - The target price for Shanghai Fudan is set at 45.00 HKD, indicating an 8.5% upside from the current price[8] - The company is rated as "Hold," with a projected revenue CAGR of 12.7% and a net profit CAGR of 25.8% over the next three years[8] Risk Factors - Key risks include underperformance in product sales, price adjustments, intensified market competition, and potential limitations in production capacity[9] Company Research: Weimob - Weimob's revenue for H1 2025 was 775 million RMB, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, due to strategic reductions in low-margin businesses[15] - The adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 17 million RMB, a significant improvement from a net loss of 187 million RMB in the same period of 2024[15] AI Business Development - Weimob's AI-related products generated approximately 34 million RMB in revenue in H1 2025, indicating progress in commercializing AI solutions[15] - The company aims to enhance its core advertising services and optimize its business mix for long-term profitability[16] Valuation and Rating - The target price for Weimob is adjusted to 3.02 HKD, reflecting a 57% upside potential, maintaining a "Buy" rating[18]

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2025 年 12 月 9 日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk FSD：对 v14.2.1 重大更新；在欧洲延长提供 FSD 体验；似乎将进入奥地利 12 月 4 日，马斯克宣布对 FSD v14.2.1 进行重大更新，新增了短信和驾驶功能。 此前马斯克在 11 月初的年度股东大会上宣布，目标是在"未来一两个月内"允许 人们边开车边发短信，现在正式落地，允许边开车边发短信，具体取决于周围交通 情况。目前美国所有 50 个州都明确禁止开车时发短信，所以其实际运用的条件和 遇到监管时应如何评判仍需进一步观察。 | 行业 | 汽车 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 455.00 美元 | | 市值 | 1.51 万亿美元 | | 总股本 | 33.26 亿股 | | 52 周高/低 | 488.54 美元/ | | | 214.25 美元 | | 每股账面值 | 24.06 美元 | 11 月 30 日，特斯拉在奥 ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4920 期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 星期二 研究观点 【公司研究】 网易（NTES.US/9999.HK，买入）：Q3 递延收入同比增长 25%，未来游戏产品储备丰富 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 奈飞（NFLX）：奈飞+华纳，下一个时代的媒体巨头 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 网易（美元） | NTES | 买入 买入 165.00 | 160.00 | 3% | 8.300 | 8.600 | -3% | 8.800 | 9.100 | -3% | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $165.00, representing an upside potential of 18.04% for US shares and 18.42% for HK shares [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a 25% year-on-year increase in deferred revenue, indicating a strong future product pipeline in gaming [4]. - The gaming and related services revenue grew by 11.8% year-on-year, driven by both new and existing game titles, with mobile gaming revenue increasing by 6.6% [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 12.9% and a Non-GAAP net profit CAGR of 15.5% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, total revenue is projected to reach $16,175 million, reflecting an 8.6% increase from the previous year [3]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be $5,408 million for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [3]. - The company achieved a GAAP net profit of 87.9 billion RMB in Q3 2025, marking a 31.8% increase year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The gaming segment is expected to generate revenue of 940 billion RMB in 2025, representing a 12.4% year-on-year growth [4]. - The report highlights the successful launch of new titles such as "Dreamland" and "Yanyun," which have received positive feedback in international markets [4]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include Ding Lei with a 45.78% stake, followed by BlackRock and The Vanguard Group with 3.02% and 2.47% respectively [2].