宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2025 年 10 月 21 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治周期：美国国内政治转向与全球外交格局变化 美国正经历长达十几年的 "向右转动" 周期，是对 1992 年冷战结束后 33 年发 展方向的反向矫正。冷战后欧美因外部威胁消除后，广泛出现自满情绪，国内在性 别、移民、福利等意识形态及政策上的一些争议性议题逐渐凸显，尤其在持极端保 守立场的基督教群体眼中，此类社会变化已趋近于堕落，偏离了传统价值观的轨道。 保守人士如 Charlie Kirk 等在过去十年以来致力于推动回归清教徒立国之本，体现 美国例外主义。美国对旧约重视远超欧洲，因此犹太人在美国地位较高。以特朗普 为首的 MAGA 阵营与以色列关系密切，包括迁都耶路撒冷、偏袒内塔利亚胡打击 哈马斯，这是意识形态上"向右转"的体现。特朗普执政风格并不优雅，类似历史 上的麦卡锡主义。虽然必要，但是如果做过头的话，不排除将来被历史清算。特朗 普下 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a market style shift, with a transition from "storytelling" to "performance" as liquidity tightens and investors focus on companies with high earnings visibility [6][7] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a tightening liquidity condition, with the Federal Reserve signaling the potential end of balance sheet reduction, which may lead to lower long-term interest rates benefiting gold and long bonds [7][9] - The report highlights the importance of cash flow stability and reasonable valuations in the current market, suggesting a preference for high-quality companies while avoiding high beta small-cap stocks [9][10] Market Performance Summary - The Nasdaq ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust) experienced a decline of 1.17% over one day and 2.34% over five days, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) saw a decrease of 0.10% and 1.18% respectively [4] - The Russell 3000 Index fell by 0.37% over one day and 1.41% over five days, indicating a general downturn in the broader market [4] - Gold prices increased by 1.33% over one day, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility [4][9] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the VIX index, a measure of market volatility, rose by 6.40%, indicating increased market uncertainty [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is reported at 4.0%, with a slight increase of 2 basis points, suggesting a stable interest rate environment [4] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) showed a slight decline, reflecting a potential weakening of the dollar in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties [4][9] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining positions in gold and high-quality long bonds as a hedge against market volatility, while favoring defensive equities with strong cash flows [9][10] - It suggests a tactical shift towards larger companies with solid earnings and avoiding small-cap stocks that exhibit high volatility [9][10] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to prepare for potential fluctuations in trade negotiations and Federal Reserve policies, advocating for a cautious approach in the current environment [9][10]

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4886 期 2025 年 10 月 20 日 星期一 研究观点 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：算力景气持续，国产算力确定性逐步验证 数字货币行业周报 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——First Call 十月策略（二） 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：算力景气持续，国产算力确定性逐步验证 核心观点： 我们强烈看好 AI 应用驱动的算力需求持续高增长，海内外 AI 应用进入商业化的 拐点时刻。国产算力端，我们认为国产算力产能瓶颈即将突破，预计 2026 年国产 芯片将迎来放量。海外算力端，OpenAI 等海外 AI 大厂商业化加速，推动 AI 应用 的广泛落地，算力硬件需求维持高景气。临近 3 季报，我们提示投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the AI application-driven demand for computing power, indicating a high growth trajectory for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the domestic computing power capacity bottleneck is expected to be broken through, with a significant increase in domestic chip production anticipated by 2026 [3][5]. - The acceleration of commercialization by overseas AI giants like OpenAI is driving widespread adoption of AI applications, sustaining high demand for computing hardware [3]. - The ongoing U.S.-China tensions are not expected to alter the positive trend in the AI industry, but rather increase the urgency for domestic computing power adoption [5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Computing Power Industry - Cambricon (688256) reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1332.5%, and a net profit of 570 million, marking a turnaround from losses [4]. - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a revenue of 4.61 billion, up 2386.4%, with a net profit of 1.61 billion, also a turnaround from losses [4]. - Inventory levels increased to 3.73 billion in Q3 2025, indicating that supply chain disruptions may have been resolved, suggesting a potential for performance growth as the industry adapts [4]. U.S.-China Tensions - The Nexperia incident highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the Dutch government restricting operations of Nexperia due to economic security concerns, leading to Chinese government countermeasures [5]. - This situation underscores the competitive dynamics in the global market, emphasizing the need for domestic computing power solutions [5]. Demand Side Dynamics - Major Chinese internet companies like ByteDance and Alibaba exhibit a "real demand" for computing power, driven by the need for intelligent computing to support business operations and the rise of generative AI applications [6]. - The report suggests focusing on key players in the domestic computing hardware supply chain, including Cambricon and SMIC (981.HK), as well as Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) for investment opportunities [6]. Communication Capabilities - The demand for ASICs from companies like Google, Meta, and AWS is expected to drive an increase in optical module demand, with anticipated shipments of 1.6T optical modules exceeding 10 million units in 2026 [8]. - The report predicts that the optical communication industry will continue to thrive in the AI era, with leading firms benefiting from technological innovations [8]. Edge AI Opportunities - Meta's recent announcements regarding AI smart glasses and OpenAI's plans for AI hardware indicate a growing market for edge AI devices [9]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies involved in edge storage chips and hardware collaborations within the Apple supply chain [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Cambricon (688256), SMIC (0981.HK), and Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) among others in the domestic computing power sector [12]. - It also suggests investment in companies like Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) and Baiwei Storage (688525) in the domestic storage sector, as well as various overseas CSP/ASIC supply chain companies [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies within the industry, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [15]. Core Insights - The implementation of the new advertising law on October 1 has reclassified traffic acquisition costs as advertising and promotional expenses, impacting tax deductions for businesses [4][6]. - The policy aims to curb short-term operational models reliant on heavy spending for traffic, encouraging businesses to focus on brand building and long-term operations [4][6]. - During the National Day holiday, significant increases in travel and consumption were reported, with high engagement on platforms like Gaode and Fliggy [7][9]. - Tencent has demonstrated strong confidence in its long-term value by repurchasing approximately HKD 609.6 billion worth of shares this year, reflecting a robust cash flow situation [10]. - JD.com has reported impressive sales growth during its Double Eleven promotion, with significant increases in various product categories and user engagement [11]. - ByteDance's Seed team has made substantial advancements in AI technology, showcasing a strong output despite organizational changes [12][13]. Policy Impact - The new advertising law affects different market participants variably, with live commerce platforms facing the most significant challenges due to their reliance on traffic acquisition costs [6]. - Major platforms are adapting by introducing new promotional tools and optimizing their merchant structures to mitigate the impact of the policy [6]. Company Performance - Alibaba's performance during the National Day holiday was highlighted by a 48% increase in GMV for travel services compared to the previous year [9]. - Tencent's share buyback program is expected to exceed HKD 800 billion for the year, positioning it as a leading example of shareholder returns in the Hong Kong market [10]. - JD.com has seen a 70% increase in orders for electronic products during its promotional period, indicating strong consumer demand [11]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift in focus among businesses from short-term traffic acquisition to sustainable brand development, driven by regulatory changes [4][6]. - The travel and consumption sectors are experiencing a resurgence, with significant increases in user engagement and spending during holiday periods [7][9].

行业评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2025 年 10 月 17 日 【行业评论】 互联网行业周报 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 罗凡环 852-25321962 simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 依据市场监管总局 2025 年 7 月印发的《〈广告法〉适用问题执法指南（一）》，自 10 月 1 日起，投流费均统一被归为广告费和业务宣传费。这一调整直接改变了投流 费用的税务处理逻辑——从原先可按成本全额抵扣，转为需按限额税前扣除。同时， 互联网平台需按规定直接向主管税务机关报送相关税收信息，强化了监管的精准性。 图表 1: 投流费相关细则 | 行业 | TMT | 项目 | 特殊行业 | 普通行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 适用范围 | 1. 化妆品制造行业 | 除 "特殊行业" 以外的所有行业 | | | | | 2. 化妆品销售行业 | | | | | | 3. 医药制造行业 | | | | | | 4. 饮料制造行 ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4884 期 2025 年 10 月 16 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司研究】 汇通达（9878,买入）：中国下沉市场电商龙头，AI 赋能迎业续拐点 好孩子（1086，买入）：全球领先的婴儿耐用品生产商 【行业评论】 AI 大模型周报 首次评级 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 现价 | 目标价 | 上涨空间 | 25EPS | 26EPS | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （港元） （港元） | (%) | （元） | （元） | | 汇通达网络 | 9878 | 买入 | 15.5 | 23.38 | 50.8% | 0.6 | 0.8 | | 好孩子国际 | 1086 | 买入 | 1.23 | 1.85 | 50.4% | 0.11 | 0.15 | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai. ...

Company Research - Tian Gong International (826) has a target price of HKD 4.38, representing a 44.56% upside potential from the current price of HKD 3.03[13] - The company reported a total revenue of approximately RMB 2.34 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%[6] - Despite revenue pressure, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by approximately 10.4% to RMB 203 million[6] Market Performance - The domestic mold steel market has stabilized, with sales volume down 5.2% but overall revenue up 2.3% to RMB 1.16 billion, and gross margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.8%[7] - The high-speed steel segment saw a 10.4% decline in sales volume and a 9.6% drop in revenue to RMB 390 million, but gross margin improved by 4.4 percentage points to 32.5%[7] Future Outlook - Powder metallurgy materials are expected to be a significant profit growth point, with sales of 589 tons in the first half of 2025, a 66.4% increase, at a price of RMB 149,000 per ton[8] - The titanium alloy segment's revenue decreased by 9.4% to RMB 350 million, with a gross margin decline of 14.8 percentage points to 24.2% due to reduced sales in high-margin consumer electronics[9] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 5.24 billion, RMB 6.08 billion, and RMB 6.93 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 429 million, RMB 603 million, and RMB 810 million[10] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 0.16, with a significant increase of 40.8% expected in 2026 to RMB 0.22[11] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on its growth potential in high-end materials and stable market recovery in the domestic mold steel sector[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the AI application-driven demand for computing power, indicating a sustained high growth trajectory [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the domestic computing power capacity bottleneck has been broken, with expectations for a significant increase in domestic chip production by 2026. The acceleration of commercialization by overseas AI giants like OpenAI is also highlighted, maintaining high demand for computing hardware [2][3]. - The ongoing US-China tensions are not expected to alter the development trends in the AI industry, with domestic computing power making significant strides in capacity and key components [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Computing Power Industry - The report notes a persistent tight balance in domestic computing power, with critical bottlenecks in advanced process capacity, advanced packaging, large model adaptation, and HBM supply gradually being overcome. Positive news from the industry is expected to catalyze market interest, particularly in the latter half of this year and into next year [3]. - Major Chinese internet companies like ByteDance and Alibaba are experiencing genuine demand for computing power to support their operations, particularly in recommendation and search algorithms, alongside the new demand generated by generative AI applications [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies in the domestic computing power hardware supply chain are recommended for attention, including Cambrian (688256), SMIC (0981.HK), and Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) and NewEase (300502), due to the increasing demand for optical modules driven by the needs of companies like Google, Meta, and AWS [5]. AI Edge Hardware Opportunities - The report highlights the launch of AI smart glasses by Meta and the anticipated entry of OpenAI into AI hardware, with Apple also shifting focus towards smart glasses development [6][7]. - Companies involved in edge AI hardware, such as Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) and BYD Electronics (002475), are noted for their potential in the evolving market [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies within the industry, including Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, and ByteDance, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid user growth of Alibaba's Gaode Map, which reached over 400 million users in just 23 days after launching the "Gaode Street Ranking" feature, significantly boosting offline consumption [4][5]. - Tencent's Mixuan Image 3.0 has been recognized as the top model in the global text-to-image generation field, outperforming competitors like Google and OpenAI, showcasing Tencent's strength in multi-modal AI [6]. - ByteDance is restructuring its AI division to focus on key products and enhance resource allocation, indicating a strategic shift towards real-world applications of AI technology [7]. - Meituan's drone delivery service has completed over 600,000 orders in five years, with a significant reduction in delivery costs by 75% to 90%, marking a shift towards efficiency-driven competition in the food delivery sector [10][11]. Summary by Sections Alibaba - Gaode Map's "Street Ranking" feature achieved over 400 million users in 23 days, enhancing offline consumption and driving significant traffic to local businesses [4][5]. Tencent - Mixuan Image 3.0 ranked first in the LMArena global evaluation, solidifying Tencent's leadership in the multi-modal AI space [6]. ByteDance - Organizational changes in ByteDance's AI division reflect a focus on consolidating resources and prioritizing key products, emphasizing the importance of real-world applications [7]. Meituan - The launch of Meituan's drone delivery service has led to a milestone of over 600,000 orders, with operational costs significantly reduced, showcasing advancements in delivery efficiency [10][11].