出口链行业更新：回调接近尾声，基本面强势公司值得重视

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the home furnishing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the negative factors have been fully priced in, and the stock price pullback is nearing its end. Companies with strong channels, operations, and binding top clients are expected to continue delivering performance growth [2][3]. - Categories such as thermal cups and smart sofas are highlighted as benefiting from customer, channel, and operational capabilities, with strong short-term cross-border sales and shipping data [3][41]. - The report emphasizes that the shipping cost and demand pressures have been adequately accounted for, with shipping rates rising since May 2024 due to geopolitical factors, although most listed companies have their shipping costs borne by clients [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Shipping and Costs - Shipping costs have been under pressure due to geopolitical factors, leading to a continuous rise in freight rates since May 2024. However, the negative expectations have been fully reflected in stock prices [3][7]. - The report notes that while shipping costs are rising, the impact on apparent profit margins and revenue growth is influenced by delayed customer orders and actual demand fluctuations [3][7]. Currency Exchange - The report mentions that the exchange rate has remained stable, with a narrowing of exchange gains in Q2 2024. The high base effect from the previous year is expected to release pressure in Q2 [12][19]. - Excluding exchange gains, the profit margin trend is still positive, driven by companies optimizing their business structures and increased order volumes [12]. Tariffs - The report states that recent tariff policy changes in other industries have not significantly impacted the export chain for the home furnishing sector, as the correlation with the main products of listed companies is low [15]. - Domestic companies are proactively setting up overseas factories to avoid tariffs, which is expected to further enhance cost advantages [15]. Company Performance - Specific companies such as "Jia Yi Co." and "Craft Home" are recommended for their strong operational capabilities and expected performance growth [3][5]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for these companies, with Jia Yi Co. projected to have an EPS of 6.78 in 2024 and Craft Home at 4.49 [5]. Market Trends - The report highlights that the export landscape remains positive, with internal categories showing differentiation. Consumer-oriented products like thermal cups and office chairs are performing better than average [18][19]. - The report notes that U.S. housing sales remain at a low point, but there is potential for recovery as interest rates decrease [18].