公用事业2024中期策略：估值的升维

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that electricity demand growth will likely outpace economic growth in the long term, with a tight supply-demand balance expected during the peak electricity consumption period in 2024. The ongoing expectations for electricity market reforms are expected to rationalize pricing mechanisms across various power sources, leading to a revaluation of quality assets within the industry [5][9] - In a declining required return environment, investors are expected to place greater emphasis on long-duration stable profit assets. The report suggests that the perpetual operating nature of electricity assets has not been fully priced in, indicating potential for valuation increases in stable dividend-generating assets within the industry [7][9] Summary by Sections Industry Review: Significant Phase-Specific Excess Returns - The public utility sector has shown significant phase-specific excess returns, outperforming market indices [16][22] - Absolute valuations are at historical median levels, with thermal, hydro, and nuclear power valuations at historical highs [22][27] Valuation Elevation Pathway One: Tight Supply-Demand Combined with Rising Electricity Reform Expectations - The report highlights that electricity consumption elasticity is expected to remain high, with electricity demand growth likely to exceed economic growth for an extended period [43][45] - The report provides data indicating that the contribution rate of traditional high-energy-consuming electricity growth is declining, while the growth rate of emerging high-energy-consuming sectors is expanding [36][37] Valuation Elevation Pathway Two: Long-Duration Interest Rate Bonds' Equity Mapping - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for public utilities, suggesting that the catalysts from electricity reforms and the equity mapping attributes of long-duration interest rate bonds will likely enhance industry valuations, with a focus on selecting alpha assets within the sector [9][12]