宏观大类日报：关注6月LPR利率

Market Analysis - The report highlights a focus on the June LPR interest rate, which is crucial for understanding monetary policy direction[1] - Recent high temperatures in northern China and rising temperatures in the south are expected to increase electricity demand, impacting commodities like copper, aluminum, and steel[2] - The agricultural sector is under observation due to favorable soil conditions in the U.S. and potential drought signals by the end of June or July[2] Economic Indicators - In May, the manufacturing PMI slightly declined, while exports exceeded expectations, particularly in machinery, electronics, and real estate-related products[6] - The issuance of government bonds surged, with a total of 1 trillion yuan issued last year, and project commencement rates exceeding 80% as of May[6] - The central bank conducted a 278 billion yuan reverse repo operation on June 19, with a net injection of 206 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos[11] Geopolitical Risks - The report notes rising geopolitical risks, particularly in the energy sector, and potential downward pressure on risk assets due to unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve[3][7] - The European Parliament elections showed a shift towards right-wing parties, raising concerns about increased protectionism and populism in trade policies[7] Investment Strategies - Recommendations include buying and hedging in livestock futures (soybean meal, live pigs) and precious metals, while maintaining a cautious stance on energy and chemical sectors[2] - The report suggests monitoring the upcoming June LPR rate for potential impacts on market liquidity and investment strategies[6]