应用材料：AI驱动下游需求扩张，GAA节点收入有望于25年翻倍

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Applied Materials (AMAT) [1][4] Core Views - AI-driven downstream demand expansion is expected to drive growth, with GAA node revenue potentially doubling by 2025 [1] - The company's semiconductor equipment business remains strong, with ion implantation equipment sales reaching a record high [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from technological advancements in AI, IoT, EVs, and renewable energy, which are driving demand for more efficient and high-performance chips [2] - The company's global EPIC platform is expected to support next-generation technology innovation and commercialization [2] - The company's integrated solutions have grown from 20% of revenue in 2019 to 30% currently, with further growth expected in ICAPS-related applications [2] - The company is a leader in advanced logic and interconnect technologies, with a significant market share in GAA nodes and HBM stacking technologies [4] - The company expects GAA node revenue to exceed $2.5 billion in 2024 and potentially double by 2025 [4] - HBM packaging revenue is expected to be six times higher in 2024 compared to 2023, exceeding$600 million [4] - Advanced packaging product revenue is expected to grow to approximately $1.7 billion in 2024, with potential for further doubling [4] Financial Performance - FY24H1 revenue was$13.353 billion, down 0.12% YoY, while net income attributable to shareholders was $3.741 billion, up 13.64$6.646 billion, up 0.24% YoY but down 0.91% QoQ, with net income attributable to shareholders at $1.722 billion, up 9.33$4.901 billion, down 2% YoY, accounting for 73.7% of total revenue [2] - AGS revenue in FY24Q2 was $1.530 billion, up 7$179 million, up 7% YoY, accounting for 2.7% of total revenue [2] - Gross margin in FY24Q2 was 47.4%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY [2] - R&D expenses in FY24Q2 were 11.81% of revenue, up 0.12 percentage points YoY [2] - The company forecasts 2024-2026 net income attributable to shareholders of $6.923 billion,$7.872 billion, and $8.583 billion, respectively, with EPS of$8.36, $9.51, and$10.37 [4] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is a leader in transistor and interconnect material engineering, with a significant market share in GAA nodes and HBM stacking technologies [4] - The company expects to capture over 50% of the wafer fabrication equipment market as FinFET transitions to GAA [4] - The company anticipates a $1 billion increase in market share when backside power delivery goes into mass production [4] - The company's advanced packaging product portfolio is expected to grow significantly, driven by the widespread adoption of heterogeneous integration beyond AI data centers [4] Valuation and Projections - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is projected to be$26.815 billion, $29.455 billion, and$32.128 billion, respectively [1] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS is projected to be $8.36,$9.51, and $10.37, respectively [4] - The company's 2024-2026 P/E ratios are projected to be 28X, 25X, and 23X, respectively [4]