ESTUN AUTOMATION(002747) 渤海证券·2024-06-20 03:31Company Overview - The company, originally established as Nanjing Estun Digital Technology Co Ltd in 2002, started with CNC systems for metal forming machine tools and has grown into a leading domestic industrial robot manufacturer [8] - It adheres to the "ALL Made by ESTUN" strategy, focusing on independent R&D of motion control and robot core technologies, and has developed a complete industrial chain covering automation core components, industrial robots, and intelligent manufacturing systems [8] - The company's business spans from automation core components and motion control systems to industrial robots and intelligent manufacturing systems, making it a leader in the domestic industrial robot sector [8] - The company's equity structure is concentrated, with the largest shareholder being Nanjing Pallet Technology Co Ltd, holding 29 31% of the shares, and the actual controller is Chairman Wu Bo, who directly holds 12 65% of the shares [9][39] Industry Background - The industrial robot industry is experiencing long-term growth due to favorable policies, with China accounting for half of the global market [2][56] - The global industrial robot installation scale is expected to grow steadily, with China's installation volume reaching 29 03 million units in 2022, making it the largest market globally [50][75] - The "machine replacement" trend remains a long-term development logic, driven by the gradual decline of China's manufacturing demographic dividend [66] - The demand for six-axis industrial robots is improving, and domestic manufacturers are accelerating their development [4][79] Company Analysis - The company's operating performance has been under pressure due to intensified industry competition, with revenue growing from 2 51 billion yuan in 2020 to 4 65 billion yuan in 2023, but net profit declining by 18 80% in 2023 [33] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue improved, reaching 1 003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 73%, but net profit fell by 84 83% [33][104] - The company's industrial robot and intelligent manufacturing system business grew rapidly, with revenue increasing by 26 50% in 2023, while the automation core component business grew steadily by 1 42% [48] - The company's order backlog is strong, with contract liabilities reaching 314 million yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27 85%, and inventory increasing by 21 56% to 1 404 billion yuan [37] Financial Analysis - The company's R&D investment has been increasing, reaching 503 million yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 35 10% over the past three years [101] - The company's gross margin declined to 31 93% in 2023, with the industrial robot and intelligent manufacturing system business gross margin dropping to 31 28%, and the automation core component business gross margin falling to 34 19% [98] - The company's operating efficiency has been under pressure, with accounts receivable turnover dropping to 3 27 times in 2023 and inventory turnover falling to 0 49 times in Q1 2024 [119] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company is valued at a 2024 PE of 55 84 times, with a neutral scenario forecast of revenue reaching 5 742 billion yuan in 2024 and net profit of 242 million yuan [110] - The report gives the company an "Overweight" rating, citing its leading position in the domestic industrial robot industry and its full industrial chain development strategy [110][135] Industry Trends - Global industrial robot installations are expected to grow, with 2023 installations projected to reach 590,000 units, and 2026 installations expected to exceed 700,000 units [50] - China remains the largest market for industrial robots, with significant room for growth in robot density, which was 392 robots per 10,000 workers in 2022, compared to 1,012 in South Korea [78] - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating their development, with the market share of domestic industrial robot manufacturers reaching 48 8% in Q1 2024, up 8 2 percentage points year-on-year [82]