晨会纪要（2025/10/22） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.22） 宏观及策略研究 总量预期达标，结构仍需优化——2025 年 9 月经济数据点评 固定收益研究 发行利率多数下行，市场整体小幅修复——信用债周报 晨会纪要（2025/10/22） 公司研究 主要矿产品价格上涨，紫金黄金国际成功上市——紫金矿业（601899）2025 年三季报点评 钴价大幅上涨，业绩同比提升——华友钴业（603799）2025 年三季报点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 会 纪 要 宏观及策略研究 总量预期达标，结构仍需优化——2025 年 9 月经济数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） ...

行业研究 关注宠物国牌大促销售，市场风格切换看好估值修复——轻工制造&纺织服 饰行业周报 晨会纪要（2025/10/21） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.21） 宏观及策略研究 广义财政支出仍有接力工具支撑——2025 年前三季度财政数据点评 基金研究 权益市场主要指数震荡回撤，个人养老金基金再扩容——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/10/21） 宏观及策略研究 广义财政支出仍有接力工具支撑——2025 年前三季度财政数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 2025 年 10 月 17 日，财政部公布 2025 年前三季度财政收支情况： （1）前三季度，全国一般公共预算收入 163876 亿元 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) in 2021 aimed to support the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises, resulting in 278 listed companies by 2025, with nearly 80% being small and micro enterprises and 88% being private enterprises. 72% of these companies belong to specialized and innovative sectors. In the first half of 2025, these companies achieved a total operating income of 93.35 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.12 billion yuan, with 61.5% of companies reporting revenue growth and 50.4% reporting net profit growth year-on-year [2][3]. - Despite the economic challenges of strong supply and weak demand, the BSE has shown a trend of "increasing revenue without increasing profit," with a year-on-year revenue growth rate in Q2 2025 continuing the positive growth trend since Q4 2024. However, net profit attributable to shareholders has been in continuous decline since Q4 2022, with Q2 2025 also reflecting this trend. The return on equity showed marginal improvement due to seasonal recovery in total asset turnover and leverage effects [3]. - In terms of industry performance, the upstream resource sectors showed a year-on-year decline in net profit growth, consistent with the overall trends in the A-share market. In the midstream materials sector, the basic chemical industry experienced negative growth, while the construction materials industry achieved positive growth. The construction decoration industry in the midstream manufacturing sector outperformed its A-share counterparts, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery showed negative growth. In the consumer sectors, BSE companies in beauty care and automotive performed better than their A-share counterparts, while in essential consumption, textile and apparel companies exceeded overall industry performance [3]. - Overall, BSE companies, which have a high concentration of specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises, have significant competitive differentiation in consumer sectors like beauty care and textiles. Additionally, by focusing on niche markets, BSE companies in the construction decoration sector have shown performance that exceeds industry cycles [4]. Fixed Income Research - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds has been completed, with a total of 48 bonds issued during the period from October 10 to October 16, 2025, amounting to 625.2 billion yuan in total issuance and a net financing amount of 155.3 billion yuan. As of October 16, 2025, 37 billion yuan of new local special bonds have been issued, and 13 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds have been issued, completing the annual issuance plan [12][13]. - The bond yield curve has flattened slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield showing a fluctuating pattern. The relationship between stock and bond markets has become more correlated, with major stock indices and government bond yields moving in tandem [13]. Industry Research - Recent developments in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector include the signing of a licensing agreement between Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Roche, as well as various approvals and notifications from the National Medical Insurance Administration regarding reforms and pilot programs in traditional Chinese medicine [15]. - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 4.66%. The pharmaceutical sector specifically decreased by 2.12%, with most sub-sectors experiencing declines [15][16]. - Looking ahead, the upcoming European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting is expected to provide investment opportunities through the disclosure of research results from innovative Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The third-quarter earnings reporting period is also anticipated to show gradual improvements in fundamentals, particularly in sectors benefiting from optimized procurement rules [16].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the year-on-year decline in CPI narrowed, with a month-on-month increase driven primarily by rising food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, while pork prices continued to be a drag due to the ongoing "anti-involution" measures in the pig industry [2][3] - The month-on-month CPI increase was weaker than seasonal trends due to declines in service and energy prices, influenced by the end of summer and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, as well as falling international oil prices [2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September 2025, the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, with month-on-month figures remaining flat. Domestic pricing in sectors like coal, black metals, and photovoltaics showed significant price improvements due to effective capacity management and ongoing market competition optimization [3][4] - The PPI for durable consumer goods remained negative, indicating a divergence from industrial consumer goods CPI performance, likely due to tightened subsidy conditions in some regions [3] Group 3: Market Overview - In the five trading days from October 10 to October 16, major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45% and the ChiNext Index down 6.88%. The average daily trading volume increased to 2.29 trillion yuan, up by 43.77 billion yuan compared to the previous period [5][6] - September trade data showed an 8.3% year-on-year increase in exports, attributed to a low base from the previous year, but future export growth may face pressure due to rising bases in the fourth quarter [7] Group 4: Policy Insights - On October 14, a meeting emphasized the need for stronger counter-cyclical adjustments and expanding domestic demand, highlighting the importance of a robust domestic circulation in light of increasing external trade uncertainties [8] - The government aims to enhance industry standards to support high-quality development, indicating a clearer path for improving capacity and efficiency through standardization [8] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the market will increasingly be driven by domestic factors, which may help mitigate external shocks. The upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting is expected to catalyze market movements, particularly around the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as TMT, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and domestic cloud computing, as well as in the power equipment industry due to high demand for energy storage and solid-state battery technologies [8]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant recovery in the construction machinery sector, with excavator sales reaching 19,858 units in September, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.4% [2][3] - Loader sales also showed strong growth, with 10,530 units sold in September, marking a 30.5% year-on-year increase [2][3] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in September was 78.1 hours, reflecting increased utilization [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, issued a "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Machinery Industry (2025-2026)", emphasizing the need to expand effective demand and enhance equipment updates [3] - The report highlights that downstream demand for construction machinery is expected to grow due to ongoing projects in hydropower and urban renewal, as well as reduced tariff disturbances in major global regions, enhancing the cost-performance advantage of domestic machinery [3] Company Announcements - Zongshen Power announced a profit forecast for the first three quarters of 2025, expecting a year-on-year increase in net profit of 70%-100% [2] - Inovance Technology reported a 40.19% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] Market Review - From October 8 to October 14, 2025, the CSI 300 Index fell by 2.19%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry Index declined by 2.97%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.78 percentage points [2] - As of October 14, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry was 31.41 times, with a valuation premium of 135.85% relative to the CSI 300 [2] Future Outlook - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the industry, with a recommendation to continue monitoring investment opportunities in the supply chain, particularly in humanoid robotics, as the industry transitions from a technology race to a commercialization phase [3] - The report suggests that the ongoing large-scale equipment update policies will likely sustain the industry's recovery momentum [3]

晨会纪要（2025/10/15） 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.15） 基金研究 权益市场主要指数多数上涨，宽基资金大幅流入——公募基金周报 宏观及策略研究 基数支撑出口，后续或温和回落——2025 年 9 月进出口数据点评 编辑人 固定收益研究 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 收益率上行趋势边际改善，配置时机渐至——信用债 10 月投资策略展望 公司研究 证 Q3 扣非后归母净利增长较好，自主品牌稳健发展——中宠股份（002891）2025 年三季报点评 券 行业研究 研 9 月旺季成色不足，10 月关注事件扰动——金属行业 10 月投资策略展望 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 9 晨会纪要（2025/10/15） 宏观及策略研究 基数支撑出口，后续或温和回落——2025 年 9 月进出口数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析 ...

Group 1: Fund Market Overview - In September, the market saw a total of 126 new funds issued, with a total issuance scale of 1,096.71 billion yuan, including 27 active equity funds with an issuance scale of 168.61 billion yuan and 76 index funds with an issuance scale of 807.51 billion yuan [3][4] - The performance of funds in September was generally positive, with all major fund types rising except for pure bond funds, which fell by 0.10%. Commodity funds had the highest increase, rising by 9.40% [3][4] - The average increase for large funds (over 10 billion yuan) was 7.43%, while small funds (1-10 billion yuan) had an average increase of 4.98% [4] Group 2: Financing and Margin Trading - As of September 30, the margin trading balance in the A-share market was 23,867.40 billion yuan, an increase of 1,327.62 billion yuan from the previous month [8] - The financing balance was 23,709.72 billion yuan, up by 1,328.72 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance decreased slightly to 157.68 billion yuan [8] - The electronic, power equipment, and communication sectors saw significant net buying in financing, while the defense, agriculture, and oil sectors had lower net buying [9] Group 3: Industry Insights - The price of packaging paper has been rising, with average prices for various types of paper increasing by 30 to 140 yuan per ton compared to late September [11] - The light manufacturing industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, while the textile and apparel industry outperformed by 2.12 percentage points during the period from October 9 to October 10 [11] - The report indicates that the recent increase in U.S. tariffs poses short-term risks, but the long-term competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing remains strong [12]

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing sector shows further improvement with a notable recovery in small enterprises, as indicated by the September PMI data, which reported a manufacturing PMI of 49.8%, a non-manufacturing business activity index of 50.0%, and a composite PMI output index of 50.6% [2][3] - The production index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, while the new orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical point [3] - New export orders reached a high of 47.8%, marking a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a reduction in the impact of tariff policies [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with the construction sector slightly improving to 49.3% and the service sector declining to 50.1% [4] - The composite PMI output index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing [4] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - Major indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.09% and the ChiNext Index by 0.81% over the recent trading period [6][7] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to clarify economic strategies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and supporting innovation as key components [7] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong structural characteristic, with potential investment opportunities in sectors such as TMT, electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and consumer services [8] Industry Research - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached CNY 9,400.40 billion from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.90% [14] - The light industry sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.54% against the index's increase of 3.20% [15] - The packaging paper industry is expected to see improved performance due to price increases being passed down to downstream sectors, with significant profit growth anticipated in Q3 [15][16] - The consumer market showed stable growth during the recent holiday period, with government subsidies expected to further stimulate sales in related sectors [15][16]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September 2025 improved to 50.6%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment[3] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, reflecting a significant acceleration in production pace[4] - New orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical threshold[4] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%, while small enterprises saw a notable improvement of 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, remaining at the dividing line[5] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, still in contraction territory[5] - The service sector's business activity index declined by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, influenced by the end of the summer season[5] Group 3: Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing[5] - Future manufacturing recovery depends on timely macro policy support and external environment stability[5]