高盛：消费税改革长期利好,但实施可能较为渐进

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses potential reforms and their implications for local governments and consumption [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's consumption tax reforms could provide long-term benefits, although implementation is expected to be gradual due to current economic conditions [2][12]. - The consumption tax in China is primarily levied on specific items such as tobacco, refined oil, automobiles, and alcohol, contributing significantly to government revenue [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the need for the Chinese economy to shift towards more consumption-driven growth, suggesting that reforms could incentivize local governments to promote consumption [10][12]. Summary by Sections Background on China's Consumption Tax - Established in 1994, the consumption tax has undergone several modifications and is similar to excise taxes in other countries, targeting specific goods [4]. - In 2023, the consumption tax revenue was RMB 1.6 trillion, accounting for 1.3% of GDP and 9% of total tax revenue, with the majority coming from tobacco (53%), refined oil (33%), automobiles (7%), and alcohol (4%) [4][5][7]. Proposed Reforms - The 2019 reform proposal suggested moving the point of tax collection from production/import stages to wholesale/retail stages, which would provide local governments with more revenue and incentives to boost consumption [9][10]. - Potential reforms include broadening the consumption tax base and increasing tax rates, particularly on luxury items and energy products, to align with other countries' tax systems [10][12]. Implementation Outlook - The report indicates that while there are compelling reasons for reform, significant changes to consumption taxes are unlikely in the next 12 months due to weak domestic demand and consumer confidence [12][13]. - Incremental changes may occur, such as reclassifying certain goods as luxury items, but broader tax increases are contingent on improvements in the labor market and consumer sentiment [12].