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“十五五”专题研究系列之三:“十五五”时期中国经济潜在增速研究
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-10-17 02:46
研究院 2025 年 10 月 17 日 2025 年第 38 期(总第 610 期) Ω 中银研究产品系列 作 者:叶银丹 中国银行研究院 刘 晨 中国银行研究院 电 话:010 - 6659 4264 签发人:陈卫东 审稿人:周景彤 梁 婧 联系人:程栖云 刘佩忠 电 话:010 - 6659 4016 * 对外公开 ** 全辖传阅 *** 内参材料 "十五五"专题研究系列之三 "十五五"时期中国经济 潜在增速研究* "十五五" 时期,中国经济保持较快增长至关 重要。对此,本文采用生产函数法和改进的收敛法分 别测算了"十五五"时期中国经济潜在增速。预计在 基准情形下,"十五五"时期中国经济潜在增速区间 为 4.5%-5.3%,在乐观情形下则可提高到 5.1%- 5.8%。未来,为推动中国经济在更长时间内保持较快 增长,建议多措并举减缓潜在增速下行速度,为可持 续的较快增长打开空间;推动实现房地产市场筑底企 稳,寻找新模式下的新增长空间;大力扩大国内有效 需求,促进实际经济增速向潜在增长率收敛;平衡好 总量和结构的关系,加快完善新质生产力的发展培育 体系;积极有效应对外部环境变化,为内部发展创造 更好的条件 ...
中美人工智能赋能产业发展的现状、趋势及政策建议
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-10-14 05:41
Group 1: AI Development Trends - AI technology is a strategic driver of the new technological revolution and industrial transformation, emphasized by Chinese leadership as essential for high-quality economic development[5] - The competition in AI, particularly in large models, has expanded from technology to infrastructure, industry ecology, standards, and governance rules between China and the US[6] - By 2024, the performance gap in major benchmarks between top AI models in China and the US has narrowed from 17.5% in 2023 to just 0.3%[7] Group 2: Market Penetration and Application - In the US, approximately 49% of enterprises report that AI has reduced costs, with the financial sector showing the highest penetration rate at 78%[17] - ChatGPT's monthly active users are projected to reach nearly 1 billion by the end of 2025, driven by its innovative features[17] - In China, the daily token call volume for the Doubao model reached 16.4 trillion in May 2025, marking a 310% increase year-on-year[21] Group 3: Commercialization Strategies - The US AI market relies on high-priced APIs and subscription models, with OpenAI's GPT-4.5 API costing $75 per million tokens, significantly higher than China's pricing[55] - China's AI models focus on low-cost APIs, with prices as low as 2.4 yuan per million tokens, promoting widespread adoption across industries[55] - The integration of AI into traditional applications has led to significant increases in user engagement, with Douyin's user base growing by 13.5% year-on-year[60]
把握我国碳金融发展的未来方向与政策路径
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-10-11 01:15
研究院 2025 年 10 月 11 日 2025 年第 36 期(总第 608 期) Ω 中银研究产品系列 作 者:赵廷辰 中国银行研究院 电 话:010 - 6659 1558 签发人:陈卫东 审稿人:王家强 李佩珈 联系人:程栖云 刘佩忠 电 话:010 – 6659 4016 * 对外公开 ** 全辖传阅 *** 内参材料 把握我国碳金融发展的未来方向 与政策路径* 发展碳金融对于活跃碳市场、满足经济社会低碳 转型资金需求具有重要意义。2025 年 8 月 25 日,中 共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布《关于推进绿色低 碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》(《意见》), 这是首份由中央层面出台、专项支持全国碳市场发展 的政策文件。《意见》在"着力提升碳市场活力"章 节中,对发展碳金融作出整体部署。我国碳金融尚处 于起步阶段,下一步应参考国际经验与教训,坚持以 服务实体经济为出发点和落脚点,大力发展碳市场融 资工具,稳妥推进金融机构参与碳市场交易,不急于 推出碳期货等衍生品,探索一条符合中国国情实际的 发展路径。 ● 《经济金融展望季报》 ● 《中银调研》 ● 《宏观观察》 ● 《银行业观察》 ● 《国际金融 ...
“十五五”专题研究系列之二:我国经济社会发展内外部环境条件八大趋势(下)
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-10-09 15:07
研究院 2025 年 10 月 09 日 2025 年第 35 期(总第 607 期) Ω 中银研究产品系列 | 作 者:周景彤 中国银行研究院 | | --- | | 叶银丹 中国银行研究院 | | 刘 晨 中国银行研究院 | | 电 话:010 - 6659 4264 | 签发人:陈卫东 联系人:程栖云 刘佩忠 电 话:010 - 6659 4016 * 对外公开 ** 全辖传阅 *** 内参材料 "十五五"专题研究系列之二 我国经济社会发展内外部环境条件 八大趋势(下)* "十五五"时期,我国正处于新旧动能转换关键 期,大力发展新质生产力是持续激发经济增长潜力、 推动经济高质量发展的重大战略部署。在供给端,科 技创新驱动新动能不断涌现,新质生产力有望继续发 展壮大。大批科技创新成果加速涌现,催生新的经济 形态和增长极;以新质生产力发展为主线加快因地制 宜构建现代化体系,新旧发展动能加快实现接续转 换。同时,顺应我国经济、社会、人口发展趋势持续 优化布局,不利因素的拖累作用有望减轻。房地产市 场向新的均衡水平回归,城市更新等将带来新增长空 间;老龄化、少子化趋势下,人口红利加快向人才红 利转化。 伦敦经济 ...
我国经济社会发展内外部环境条件
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-10-09 12:04
研究院 2025 年 10 月 09 日 2025 年第 34 期(总第 606 期) Ω 中银研究产品系列 | 作 者:周景彤 中国银行研究院 | | --- | | 叶银丹 中国银行研究院 | | 刘 晨 中国银行研究院 | | 电 话:010 - 6659 4264 | 签发人:陈卫东 联系人:程栖云 刘佩忠 电 话:010 - 6659 4016 * 对外公开 ** 全辖传阅 *** 内参材料 "十五五"专题研究系列之一 我国经济社会发展内外部环境条件 八大趋势(上)* "十五五"时期是为基本实现社会主义现代化夯 实基础、向高收入国家迈进的关键期。中国经济发展 的历史方位和内外部环境条件都将发生重大变化。从 外部看,"十五五"时期是中国应对全球变局的战略 突围期。外部环境依然趋紧,"双循环"格局发生重 大变化;国际金融市场分化与变革并存,不确定性明 显上升。从内部看,"十五五"时期是高质量发展的 深化拓展期,机遇大于挑战。在需求端,以国内大循 环为坚实基础应对外循环的不确定性,成为"十五 五"时期"双循环"新发展格局持续深化的重要依 托。消费规模稳步增长,观念变化带动消费需求加速 分化;投资仍是促增长 ...
我国房企信用风险、债务重组与相关建议
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-09-18 05:18
与相关建议* 当前房地产行业融资情况仍不乐观,房企债务到 期高峰来临,流动性和偿债均面临较大压力。在此背 景下,2025 年以来,房企债务重组进程明显加快。 境外债务重组方面,化债工具更加多元化,呈现出削 债比例提高、展期时长延长、票息率降低等趋势。同 时,债转股逐步成为房企化债主要工具,资产代币化 为房企化债提供新思路。境内债务重组进展相对偏 慢,仍以展期为主,部分二次重组房企逐步尝试从展 期走向削债,并积极尝试短期偿债与长期转型相结合 的创新解决方案。展望下半年,随着市场预期进一步 走弱,债权人将继续下调对房企偿债能力的预期,房 企境内外债务重组将呈现出削债幅度更大、债务利息 更低、展期时间更长等特征。未来房企、债权人、金 融机构、政府等多方需协同努力,共同推动房地产行 业债务风险化解和新发展模式转型。 研究院 2025 年 9 月 18 日 2025 年第 33 期(总第 605 期) Ω 中银研究产品系列 作 者:叶银丹 中国银行研究院 电 话:010 - 6659 6874 签发人:陈卫东 审稿人:周景彤 梁 婧 联系人:程栖云 刘佩忠 电 话:010 - 6659 4016 * 对外公开 ** 全 ...
宏观观察2025年第32期(总第604期):我国脑科学与脑机接口行业发展现状及建议
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-09-12 06:45
Industry Overview - The brain science and brain-computer interface (BCI) industry in China is rapidly developing, with a market size projected to reach 5.58 billion yuan by 2027, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%[20] - The global BCI market is expected to grow from 1.98 billion USD in 2023 to over 6 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 25%[20] Technological Development - BCI technology is categorized into three types: invasive, semi-invasive, and non-invasive, with non-invasive methods leading in application[6] - The industry is characterized by high dependence on advanced technology, requiring significant investment in research and development, with an average R&D expense ratio of 18%[37] Policy Support - The Chinese government has prioritized brain science and BCI research as a national strategic technology, with plans to establish a comprehensive technology and industry system by 2030[12] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are leading in policy support and establishing research institutions to foster BCI development[14] Financial Landscape - Investment in the BCI sector has surged, with over 1,500 financing events globally, totaling nearly 10 billion USD, and China accounting for approximately 20 billion USD of that[47] - In 2024, the domestic BCI industry secured over 1.5 billion yuan in financing, with 80% directed towards invasive technology[47] Market Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as reliance on imported core components, low efficiency in technology transfer, and ethical concerns regarding safety and privacy[5] - The average gross profit margin for listed companies in the BCI sector is 33.89%, but net profit margins for downstream companies are below 10% due to market expansion pressures[37] Future Trends - The BCI industry is expected to see multi-modal integration, combining various signal acquisition methods to enhance accuracy and stability[41] - Applications in healthcare are expanding beyond existing treatments for Parkinson's and epilepsy to include conditions like Alzheimer's and ALS[42]
美国产业政策的历史透视与对我国的启示
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-09-09 05:49
Group 1: Historical Context of U.S. Industrial Policy - U.S. industrial policy has evolved through various protective measures since its founding, with tariffs peaking at an average rate of 61.7% in 1830[9] - The manufacturing output value in the U.S. grew from $173 million in 1810 to $13 billion by 1899, establishing the U.S. as a major industrial power[9] - Post-World War II, U.S. industrial policy shifted towards supporting advanced technologies while reducing tariffs from 31.4% in 1944 to 10% by 1970[14] Group 2: Recent Trends and Policy Shifts - After the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. industrial policy saw a shift towards direct intervention and protectionism, with initiatives like the "Reindustrialization" strategy under the Obama administration[39] - The Biden administration has implemented significant subsidies for key industries, including $430 billion for climate and clean energy initiatives[46] - U.S. high-tech product exports are projected to rise from $153.89 billion in 2018 to $232.91 billion by 2024, increasing their share of manufactured exports from 18.5% to 24.3%[50] Group 3: Global Value Chain Dynamics - U.S. participation in global value chains increased from 37% in 2007 to 41% in 2022, driven primarily by the service sector[51] - Despite U.S. efforts, the global value chain remains diversified, with China's foreign value added in global exports rising from 19% in 2007 to 22% in 2021[61] - U.S. manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP decreased from 13% in 2002 to 10% in 2024, indicating a trend of "hollowing out" in manufacturing[50]
“小谷子拉动大消费”:谷子经济发展特征、趋势与相关建议
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-09-04 07:39
Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The "Guzi economy" market size in China is projected to grow from 58 billion yuan in 2020 to 168.9 billion yuan by 2024, nearly tripling in size[9] - By 2029, the overall market size is expected to reach 308.9 billion yuan[9] - The number of related enterprises in the Guzi economy has increased from 78,900 in 2015 to nearly 7 million by mid-2025, an increase of 87 times[9] Group 2: Consumer Demographics - Consumers aged 18 to 40 account for over 78% of Guzi product purchases, with the Gen Z demographic contributing more than 50%[13] - Female consumers' share in the Guzi economy is projected to rise from 67% in 2023 to 78% by 2025[13] - High-tier cities account for over 80% of Guzi consumption, indicating potential growth in lower-tier markets[13] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Insufficient copyright protection is harming the interests of original creators and consumers, necessitating stronger IP protection measures[34] - Market disorder due to irrational speculation is disrupting the Guzi economy, highlighting the need for regulatory oversight[34] - The industry faces challenges from homogenized competition, which limits growth potential, suggesting a need for innovation in IP development and product differentiation[36]
消费品以旧换新政策效果评估与改进方向
Zhong Guo Yin Hang· 2025-08-12 11:41
Group 1: Policy Effectiveness - The current recycling policy has significantly boosted sales of key consumer goods, particularly home appliances and communication devices, leading to a total sales increase of 1.1 trillion yuan by May 2025[6] - Home appliance consumption grew by 30.7% in the first half of 2025, contributing 25.1% to overall consumption growth, while communication devices increased by 24.1%, contributing 16.6%[6] - The policy has positively impacted the profitability of home appliance companies, with revenue growth rates for major firms like Midea and Haier reaching 13.9% and 27.36% respectively in Q1 2025[20] Group 2: Challenges and Issues - Some regions have experienced a disruption in subsidy funding, affecting market expectations and policy effectiveness, with reports of funding shortages since May 2025[32] - The policy has led to a "Matthew effect," concentrating tax revenues in manufacturing strong provinces, which diminishes the incentive for less developed regions to implement the policy[35] - The policy is facing diminishing returns after over a year of implementation, raising concerns about a potential "policy cliff" once the subsidies are withdrawn[41] Group 3: Recommendations - It is recommended to accelerate the disbursement and allocation of subsidy funds to stabilize market expectations and prevent funding interruptions[54] - Expanding the range of subsidized products and extending the subsidy duration are suggested to mitigate the risk of a "policy cliff" and maintain consumer demand[54] - The government should consider easing participation thresholds for small and medium enterprises to ensure broader access to the benefits of the policy[59]