宏观策略周报

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - Domestic financial markets continue to show a strong bond and weak stock pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.31% for the week, reflecting a broader market weakness[10] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 1.06%, indicating a stronger bond market amidst weak domestic demand[10] - The South China Commodity Index fell by 1.03%, continuing its downward trend from the previous week, with gold futures dropping significantly by 2.44%[10] Group 2: Domestic Economic Tracking - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a 9.8% decrease week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 44.6%, indicating ongoing weakness in the property market[17] - Passenger car sales also turned negative, with daily retail sales down 8.34% year-on-year and wholesale volume down 13.26%[17] - Domestic pork prices rose for the fourth consecutive week, with a weekly average price increase of 5.03%, while vegetable prices continued to decline[19] Group 3: Credit and Financing Conditions - In May, new RMB loans increased by 950 billion yuan, which is 410 billion yuan less than the previous year, reflecting weak demand in the real economy[33] - The total social financing in May was 2.07 trillion yuan, slightly above market expectations, driven mainly by a significant increase in corporate and government bonds[33] Group 4: International Economic Tracking - The U.S. CPI growth slowed to 0% month-on-month in May, significantly below the expected 0.1%, marking the lowest level since July 2022[40] - The Eurozone's industrial output fell by 0.1% month-on-month in April, missing the expected growth of 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 3%[45] Group 5: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The current asset allocation suggests 25% in equities, 15% in government bonds, 10% in gold, 10% in commodities, and 40% in cash, reflecting a cautious approach amidst market volatility[78]