| 研究报告 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观金融日报 | 宏观战略部 | 2026 | 年 | 1 | 月 | 27 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | 宏观金融日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 撰写人： | 张 | 晨 | 陈 | 畅 | 刘晓艺 | 车美超 | 审核人： | 寇宁 | 从业号： | F0284349 | F3019342 | F3012593 | F0284346 | 从业号： | F0262038 | | 交询号： | Z0010567 | Z0013351 | Z0012930 | Z0011885 | 交询号： | Z0002132 | | | | | | | | | | 一德期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】 38 号 当日要闻： 1.根据欧盟委员会网站上的声明以及情况说明书，印度将大幅降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The central bank's interest - rate cut and quota increase in re - loans are expected to support key sectors and small - medium - sized enterprises, and the reduction of the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans aims to destock the commercial real estate market [2][3][4]. - In the short term, the stock index futures market may continue to oscillate and adjust, and investors should focus on the structure rather than the index, while also paying attention to the impact of the annual report performance forecast [6]. - The precious metals market shows a divergence, with gold and silver remaining strong and platinum and palladium lagging behind. Investors can pay attention to the entry opportunities after the callback stabilizes [7]. - The container shipping index is in a wide - range shock due to the interweaving of short - term long and short factors, and the short - term EC2604 is expected to be in a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.当日要闻 (Today's Key News) - The central bank will cut the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points from January 19, 2026, and adjust other related policy rates [2]. - The central bank will increase the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, set up a 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises, and increase the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan [3]. - In December 2025, China's new social financing was 2.21 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan. The annual social financing scale increment in 2025 was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. At the end of December, M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%, and M1 balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [3]. - The central bank will reduce the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% to support the destocking of the commercial real estate market [4]. - Trump plans to negotiate with foreign countries to ensure the supply of key minerals in the US, using a "price floor" mechanism instead of traditional percentage tariffs [5]. - Trump hopes that any military action against Iran will be a "quick and decisive strike" [5]. 3.2.品种观点 (Variety Views) - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the market fluctuated. Although the central bank released a loose signal after the market, in the short term, the index may continue to oscillate and adjust. Investors are advised to focus on the structure rather than the index and pay attention to the impact of the annual report performance forecast near the end of January [6]. - **Precious Metals**: In the Asia - Pacific market today, silver remained strong, but there was a significant divergence in the sector. Gold and silver continued to reach new highs, while platinum and palladium declined. After a continuous rise, the current technical adjustment is relatively benign. Investors can pay attention to the entry opportunities after the callback stabilizes [7]. - **Container Shipping Index**: Short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the container shipping index shows a wide - range shock. The short - term EC2604 is expected to be in a volatile state. Spot enterprises are advised to hold hedging positions, and investors can pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [9]. 3.3.未来24小时重点数据 (Key Data in the Next 24 Hours) - Tonight, pay attention to the US January New York Fed Manufacturing Index (previous value: - 3.9, forecast: 1), the US initial jobless claims for the week ended January 10 (previous value: 208,000, forecast: 215,000), and the US January SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value (previous value: 51.8) [12]. - Tomorrow, pay attention to the speech by 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid on monetary policy and economic prospects, and the US December industrial production monthly rate (previous value: 0.2%, forecast: 0.1%) [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term index of the stock index futures market may continue to oscillate and adjust. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 3 trillion or expand, the market risk is low; otherwise, attention should be paid. It is recommended that investors focus on the structure rather than the index, wait for the volatility to decrease, and be aware of the possible disturbances caused by the annual report performance forecasts of listed companies near the end of January [5]. - For treasury bond futures, it is not advisable to short at present when the long - term bond valuation is at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the central bank's open - market operation trends [10]. - For precious metals, the short - term opening of the import window may increase the capital cashing pressure that has been driving the internal - external premium, but the physical shortage in the New York market may only ease with the marginal weakening of investment and industrial demand [13]. - For the container shipping index, if the cargo volume before the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point in mid - to - late January. There is still an expectation of pre - shipment in the first quarter, and the freight rate may have marginal support. Spot enterprises should mainly hold hedging orders, and enterprises with shipping contracts before the Spring Festival should close their long - hedging positions on the futures side. The 04 contract should not be overly shorted in the short term, and attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.当日要闻 - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year in December 2025, and the year - on - year increase in imports expanded to 5.7%. In 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports exceeded 45 trillion yuan for the first time [2]. - On January 14, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors to buy securities on margin from 80% to 100% [2]. - The Trump administration approved NVIDIA to sell its second - most powerful AI chips to China, and the US relaxed the regulatory rules for exporting H200 chips to China [2]. - The US government recorded a budget deficit of $145 billion in December, a 67% or $58 billion increase from the same period last year. The net tariff revenue in December was $27.9 billion [3]. - The core inflation in the US slowed down more than expected in December. The year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.6%, the lowest level in nearly five years, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 2.7%, in line with expectations [3]. - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, said that if the economic outlook is realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates [4]. 3.2.品种观点 3.2.1. Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the market rose first and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded compared with the previous trading day. Among the underlying indexes of stock index futures, the CSI 300 fell 0.40%, the SSE 50 fell 0.67%, the CSI 500 rose 1.04%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.66%. Among the current - month contracts of stock index futures, IF2601 fell 0.63%, IH2601 fell 0.79%, IC2601 rose 0.64%, and IM2601 rose 0.08% [5]. - The computer, comprehensive, and communication sectors led the gains, while the banking, real estate, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses [5]. - Market regulations have been frequent in the first three trading days of this week, which led to a market decline in the afternoon. Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to rise, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has refreshed the historical high for three consecutive days [5]. 3.2.2. Treasury Bond Futures - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 28.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 212.2 billion yuan. The money market was tight, and the overnight repurchase rate was 1.39% [10]. - Affected by the non - renewal of the previous day's outright reverse repurchase, the bond market opened lower in the morning. In the afternoon, the regulatory authorities cooled the equity market, and TL2603 once turned positive and closed with a doji star. The non - renewal of the outright reverse repurchase is a concern for the bond market [10]. - Since December, treasury bond futures have been under pressure to decline. Although the equity market has cooled, the impact of the equity market on the bond market is limited at present. The above - mentioned negative factors have been partially released, and it is not advisable to short at present [10]. 3.2.3. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, Shanghai silver continued to lead the rise in the precious metals sector. The domestic silver futures and spot prices rose strongly, and the internal - external spot premium jumped to 2,700 yuan/kg, with the premium rate rising to 13.5%. The import window opened again [12][13]. - Speculative funds showed differentiation. Gold and silver were mainly added, with gold being increased for 6 consecutive days. The total positions of New York gold futures, silver futures, platinum futures, and palladium futures changed to +7,855 lots, +2,146 lots, - 631 lots, and - 35 lots respectively [12]. 3.2.4. Container Shipping Index - Shipping companies continued to lower spot freight rates to increase the end - of - month shipment volume in the spot market. If the cargo volume before the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point in mid - to - late January. However, due to the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products from April 1, there is still an expectation of pre - shipment in the first quarter, and the freight rate may have marginal support [14]. - The instability of shipping companies' frequent changes in spot quotes increases the difficulty of unilateral investment. Spot enterprises should mainly hold hedging orders, and enterprises with shipping contracts before the Spring Festival should close their long - hedging positions on the futures side. The 04 contract should not be overly shorted in the short term, and attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [14]. 3.3.未来24小时重点数据 - Tonight (January 14): The US November retail sales month - on - month rate (forecast: 0.4%), the US November PPI annual rate (forecast: 2.7%), and the US December existing home sales annualized total (forecast: 4.21 million) [17]. - Tomorrow (January 15): China's December M2 money supply annual rate (forecast: 8%), China's December social financing scale (forecast: 3.52685 trillion yuan), China's December new RMB loans (forecast: 1.61608 trillion yuan), the US January New York Fed manufacturing index (forecast: 1), the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 (forecast: 2.15 million), and the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market adjusted on Tuesday after the regulatory authorities cooled down the market on Monday night. The short - term index may continue to oscillate and adjust. Investors are advised to focus on the structure rather than the index, wait for the volatility to decrease, and be aware of the possible disturbances from the annual report performance forecasts of listed companies near the end of January [5]. - Due to the further escalation of geopolitical situations, the safe - haven sentiment has risen. The macro funds may increase their allocation of long - term bonds for risk hedging. At present, when the valuation of long - term bonds is at a low level, it is not advisable to short. It is recommended to lightly try to go long on TL2603 in treasury bond futures [9]. - The precious metals sector showed obvious differentiation in the Asian market today. Silver continued to be strong, mainly driven by macro - level changes such as international geopolitical tensions and the challenge to the Fed's independence. In the short - term, it is difficult for the Powell case to have a major negative impact on gold and silver. Micro - level factors such as tight silver inventory also support the silver price [11][12]. - The shipping companies have lowered the spot freight rates, and the bullish sentiment in the container shipping index market has ebbed. The spot freight rate may reach an inflection point at the end of January if the cargo volume growth before the Spring Festival falls short of expectations. Spot enterprises are recommended to continue with hedging, and positive arbitrage opportunities between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be focused on [14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日要闻 - Since January 14, 2026, anti - dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imported solar - grade polysilicon originating from the United States and South Korea for a period of 5 years [2]. - On January 12, CME announced a change in the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts, from a fixed - amount margin to a percentage of the contract's notional value, effective after the close on January 13 [2]. - US President Trump announced that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US, and the US State Department asked US citizens to leave Iran immediately [3]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell regarding a $2.5 - billion over - budget renovation project of the Fed's headquarters [3]. - Two Chinese - flagged super - large oil tankers that were originally heading to Venezuela to load crude oil for debt repayment have turned back [4]. - Japanese Prime Minister Hayasaka Sanae expressed her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives at the beginning of the parliamentary session on January 23 [4]. 3.2品种观点 3.2.1股指期货 - On Tuesday, the market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64%, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 3.651 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day. Among the underlying indexes of stock index futures, the CSI 300 fell 0.60%, the SSE 50 fell 0.34%, the CSI 500 fell 1.28%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.84%. Among the current - month contracts of stock index futures, IF2601 fell 0.56% (basis 5.17 points), IH2601 fell 0.21% (basis 3.67 points), IC2601 fell 1.26% (basis 29.52 points), and IM2601 fell 1.92% (basis 30.67 points) [5]. - The petroleum and petrochemical, pharmaceutical and biological, and non - ferrous metal sectors led the gains, while the military industry, electronics, and communication sectors led the losses [5]. - Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to rise. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets hit a record high for two consecutive days on January 12 and 13, the margin trading balance increased by 45.5 billion yuan on January 12, and the premium and discount of stock index futures narrowed significantly, indicating high market sentiment [5]. - From the perspective of the Spring Festival market evolution, the time is not yet up, but more than half of the upward space has been achieved. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 3 trillion yuan or even increase, the market risk is low; otherwise, attention should be paid [5]. 3.2.2国债期货 - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 342.4 billion yuan. The money market was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate was 1.39% [9]. - Affected by the escalation of geopolitical situations, the safe - haven sentiment rose. Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher in the morning, and futures performed better than spot bonds. TL2603 returned above the 10 - day moving average. In the past four trading days, the trend of treasury bonds has gradually become less correlated with the stock market [9]. - Since December, treasury bond futures have been under pressure due to increased expectations of stable growth and supply concerns. Although the PMI data in December returned above the boom - bust line and relevant policies were implemented at the beginning of the year, the sustainability of the data structure is questionable, and the fundamentals are hard to reverse. Currently, the above negative factors have been partially released [9]. 3.2.3贵金属 - In the Asian market today, the precious metals sector was significantly differentiated. Shanghai silver stood above the 20,000 - yuan integer mark for two consecutive days. Domestic gold and silver rose 1.01% and 5.90% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell 3.32% and 5.22% respectively, with the former two hitting new historical highs during the session [11]. - Speculative funds mainly increased their positions. Gold had a large - scale increase in positions for five consecutive days. According to the initial position data released by CME on the 12th, the total position of New York gold futures was 530,500 lots (+30,990 lots); the total position of New York silver futures was 152,800 lots (+2,306 lots); the total position of New York platinum futures was 77,757 lots (-1,361 lots); the total position of New York palladium futures was 19,519 lots (+113 lots) [11]. 3.2.4集运指数 - Shipping companies have lowered the spot freight rates, and the bullish sentiment in the container shipping index market has ebbed. The 04 - contract of the container shipping index significantly corrected on Tuesday. For example, Hapag - Lloyd lowered the booking freight rates for late January by $50 and $100 to $1,635/TEU and $2,635/FEU respectively; CMA CGM's latest quotes for some February voyages followed the January - end prices [14]. - The current transportation demand is stable, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. If the cargo volume growth before the Spring Festival falls short of expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point at the end of January. According to the China Shipping Prosperity Survey data, the prosperity range in the first quarter of this year has dropped to a slight prosperity level compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the confidence of container shipping enterprises has declined, and the corporate profit situation may narrow [14]. 3.3未来24小时重点数据 - Tonight (January 13): At 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.7); the US December core CPI annual rate unadjusted (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.6); at 23:00, the US October seasonally - adjusted annualized total of new home sales (in ten thousand units) is expected to be 70.5 (previous value 70.5) [18]. - Tomorrow (January 14): At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on China's import and export situation in 2025; at 10:30, China's December trade balance in US dollars (in billions of US dollars) is expected to be 113.3 (previous value 111.68), the December export annual rate in US dollars (%) is expected to be 2.9 (previous value 5.9), and the December import annual rate in US dollars (%) is expected to be 0.8 (previous value 1.9); at 21:30, the US November retail sales monthly rate (%) is expected to be 0.4 (previous value 0), and the US November PPI annual rate (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.7); at 23:00, the US December annualized total of existing home sales (in ten thousand units) is expected to be 421 (previous value 413) [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The stock index futures market had a significant rise on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 17 - day consecutive increase and hitting a ten - year high. After the previous sharp rise, the index may experience short - term oscillations and adjustments. If the trading volume can remain above 3 trillion, the market risk is relatively low; otherwise, attention should be paid. It is recommended to focus on the structure rather than the index and pay attention to the possible impact of the annual report performance announcements at the end of January. Industries such as domestic computing power & equipment, autonomous driving & robots, AI applications, and non - bank finance are worth following, as well as themes like controlled nuclear fusion and brain - computer interfaces [4]. - The bond market sentiment improved due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions. The bearish positions in treasury bond futures left the market, driving the market to rebound. Although the equity market is still strong, the allocation demand for bonds by macro funds may increase for hedging purposes under geopolitical risks. It is not advisable to short long - term bonds at present, and it is recommended to try to go long on TL2603 with a light position [8]. - The precious metals sector strengthened in the Asian market today, with silver leading the rise. The criminal investigation of the Fed Chairman may increase the internal divergence of the Fed in subsequent monetary policy decisions, which is bullish for precious metals in the medium term. After a short - term fermentation, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals, maintaining the trend of being easy to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended to hold the positions entered at a low level during the commodity index re - balancing last week, and those with heavy positions can reduce their positions appropriately. It is not advisable to chase high at the current price [10][12][13]. - The container shipping index's main contract EC2604 rose significantly on Monday due to the shipping companies' price increase for February online booking rates and the convergence of inter - month spreads. The adjustment of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy brings the expectation of a shipping rush on the European route in the first quarter. Enterprises with pre - holiday spot shipping contracts can close their long hedging positions in the futures market, and the positive arbitrage between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be held [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Current Affairs News - US President Trump is considering various options to interfere in Iran, including sending a carrier strike group to the Middle East, launching cyberattacks and information warfare. He will meet with senior advisors on the 13th to discuss Iran - related issues [2]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Trump's remarks about Venezuela's oil, stating that Latin American countries are sovereign and independent and can choose their cooperation partners independently. China will continue to deepen practical cooperation with Latin American countries [2]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, focusing on the $2.5 billion over - budget for the headquarters renovation project and whether he lied to Congress about the project details. Powell responded that the investigation is an excuse for the Fed's independent interest - rate setting [3]. - Four Chinese government departments jointly issued work methods for the layout planning and investment guidance of government - investment funds, marking a shift from extensive management to refined management, which is of great significance for improving the efficiency of fiscal funds, guiding social capital, and serving national strategies [3]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 36,013 billion yuan, expanding compared with the previous trading day. The CSI 300 rose 0.65%, the SSE 50 rose 0.30%, the CSI 500 rose 2.39%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.80%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, the media, computer, and military sectors led the rise, while only the petroleum & petrochemical, coal, and real - estate sectors closed down [4]. - The index futures contracts also showed different degrees of increase. For example, IF2601 rose 0.67% (basis - 0.52 points), IH2601 rose 0.34% (basis - 1.94 points), IC2601 rose 2.56% (basis 24.67 points), and IM2601 rose 3.23% (basis 38.19 points) [4]. 3.3. Treasury Bond Futures - On Monday, the central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 36.1 billion yuan. The overnight repurchase rate was 1.33%, indicating a loose money market [8]. - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the bond market sentiment improved, and the bearish positions in treasury bond futures left the market, driving the price of TL2603 back above the 5 - day moving average. In recent three trading days, the trend of treasury bonds has gradually become independent of the stock market [8]. 3.4. Precious Metals - In the Asian market today, the precious metals sector strengthened, with the domestic silver, gold, platinum, and palladium rising 14.42%, 2.57%, 4.65%, and 3.59% respectively, and the first two hitting new historical highs [10]. - The criminal investigation of the Fed Chairman may increase the internal divergence of the Fed in subsequent monetary policy decisions, which is bullish for precious metals in the medium term. After a short - term fermentation, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals [12][13]. 3.5. Container Shipping Index - On Monday, the container shipping index's main contract EC2604 rose significantly due to the shipping companies' price increase for February online booking rates and the convergence of inter - month spreads. The adjustment of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy brings the expectation of a shipping rush on the European route in the first quarter [15]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange announced that the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index for basic ports in Europe in week 2 was 1956.39 points, a week - on - week increase of 8.9%, slightly exceeding expectations, which will support the 02 contract [15]. 3.6. Key Data in the Next 24 Hours - Tonight at 17:30, the Eurozone's January Sentix Investor Confidence Index will be released, with a previous value of - 6.2 and a forecast of - 4.9 [17]. - Tomorrow at 07:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech; at 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted and core CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released, with forecasts of 2.7% and 2.7% respectively; at 23:00, the US October seasonally - adjusted annualized total of new home sales will be released, with a forecast of 70.5 million [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock index futures market showed a normal oscillation on Wednesday, with short - term oscillations not changing the upward trend. Attention should be paid to the central bank's liquidity management and the possible impact of annual report performance announcements. There are structured opportunities in the L3 level, and positive factors exist in domestic computing power, AI applications, etc. [5] - The bond market may maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern due to factors such as risk preference recovery, supply concerns, and inflation expectations. It is recommended to wait and see before the main trend becomes clear. [10] - The container shipping index 02 contract is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Spot enterprises without shipping contracts before the Spring Festival can hold long hedging positions, and attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity between EC2604 and EC2608. [12][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Current Affairs - The Venezuelan interim government will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and the funds will be supervised by Trump [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce prohibits the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users [2] - The Trump administration is discussing plans to acquire Greenland, including purchase, free association agreement, and military means [2] - The People's Bank of China clarifies key tasks in 2026, including strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, using various monetary policy tools, and strengthening financial market supervision [2] - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Richmond Fed President Barkin advocates "fine - tuning" based on data, and Fed Governor Milan expects more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts this year [3][4] - The US Supreme Court may rule on Trump's global tariff policy on January 9 [4] - Multiple departments held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry, focusing on anti - involution measures [4] - China's Ministry of Commerce is conducting an anti - dumping investigation on imported dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan [4] Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the market oscillated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 285.41 billion yuan. The performance of index futures varied, with some rising and some falling. [5] - Structured opportunities are expected in the L3 level, and positive factors exist in domestic computing power, AI applications, etc. Attention should be paid to sectors such as domestic computing power & equipment, automotive & robotics, AI applications, and non - bank finance, as well as themes like controllable nuclear fusion and brain - computer interfaces. [5][6] Bond Futures - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 28.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 50.02 billion yuan. The money market was loose, and risk sentiment suppressed the bond market, especially the ultra - long end. [9] - The bond market has been volatile recently due to risk preference recovery and supply concerns. Although there are some favorable factors for bond funds, the bond market allocation rhythm may slow down. A January reserve requirement ratio cut is still possible. [10] Container Shipping Index - On Wednesday, the container shipping index 02 contract fluctuated. Some funds took profits, and shipping companies lowered online freight rates, causing the index to decline. If the cargo volume is lower than expected, the spot freight rate may turn around at the end of January. [12] - Before the Spring Festival, the marginal support logic remains. Spot enterprises without shipping contracts can hold long hedging positions, and attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity between EC2604 and EC2608. [13] Future 24 - Hour Key Data - Tonight (January 7): At 21:30, pay attention to the change in US ADP employment in December. The previous value was 199,000, and the forecast value is 212,000. From January 8 to 14, the Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct an annual weight re - balancing. [15] - Tomorrow (January 8): At 21:15, focus on the change in US ADP employment in December (the previous value was - 32,000, and the forecast value is 48,000). At 23:00, pay attention to the US ISM non - manufacturing index in December (previous value 52.6, forecast value 52.3) and the final value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders in October (previous value - 2.2%, forecast value - 2.2%). [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index futures market continued to rise sharply on Tuesday, and the spring offensive in 2026 has started ahead of schedule. Investors are advised to stay positive, focus on the central bank's liquidity management, and be aware of the potential impact of the annual report performance announcements of listed companies near the end of January. There are potential structured opportunities in L3 autonomous driving, domestic computing power, and AI applications. [6][7] - The bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and investors are recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy with a light position. [10] - The precious metals sector strengthened in the Asian session today, but prices may be under short - term pressure due to the annual parameter adjustment of major commodity indices. Investors can look for buying opportunities on dips. [12] - The container shipping index showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile at a high level. Spot enterprises can hold long hedging positions, and there may be positive arbitrage opportunities between EC2604 and EC2608. [15][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Current News - Venezuelan President Maduro pleaded not guilty in a US court, and his vice - president was sworn in as the interim president. [2] - The Trump administration plans to meet with US oil company executives to discuss increasing Venezuela's oil production. [3] - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol, and the two countries signed 15 agreements. [3][4] - Trump mentioned the need for Greenland again, which triggered a backlash from many countries. [4] - The US manufacturing industry contracted for the 10th consecutive month in December, and the short - term recovery possibility is low. [4] - The People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection of various tools in December, with net injections in some items and net withdrawals in others. [5] 3.2. Variety Views 3.2.1. Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.50% and broke through the high of last year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly. The underlying indices and futures contracts of stock index futures all rose. The non - silver finance, chemical, and non - ferrous sectors led the gains, and only the communication sector closed down. [6] - The overseas macro - environment is relatively friendly, and China's economy usually has a "good start" in the first quarter. The macro - policy will remain positive and loose at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, which is conducive to the recovery of market risk appetite. [7] - There are potential opportunities in L3 autonomous driving, domestic computing power, AI applications, and other fields. The prices of lithium carbonate, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals futures will affect the related sectors. Attention should also be paid to controllable nuclear fusion and brain - computer interface. [7] 3.2.2. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan. The money market was loose. [10] - Affected by the lower - than - expected bond - buying scale in December announced by the central bank the previous day, treasury bond futures opened and moved lower, and TL2603 hit a new low. The strong performance of the equity market also suppressed the bond market. [10] - The bond market has been volatile recently due to the recovery of risk appetite and concerns about supply. The relaxation of the bond fund redemption fee rate and the extension of the transition period in the new regulations will help the bond market recover, but there is still supply pressure in the first quarter. There is still a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January. [10] 3.2.3. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector strengthened, with silver leading the gains. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium rose 1.27%, 7.06%, 6.02%, and 5.16% respectively. [12] - Speculative funds mainly reduced their positions, except for silver. The unexpected delivery of the January Cmx silver futures and the low ratio of registered warehouse receipts ignited market sentiment, and the rapid decline of domestic inventory supported the price increase in the Asian session. [12] - Due to the annual parameter adjustment of major commodity indices, the prices of precious metals may be under short - term pressure, and investors are advised to look for buying opportunities on dips. [12] 3.2.4. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index opened low and closed high on Tuesday. The price - holding efforts of shipping companies supported the index valuation, and the spread repair boosted the EC2604 contract. [15] - The spot market's booking situation in mid - and early January is good, and the shipping demand is relatively stable compared with December. The probability of shipping companies' successful price - holding is expected to increase. [16] - The short - term outlook for the main contract is high - level volatility. Spot enterprises can hold long hedging positions, and there may be positive arbitrage opportunities between EC2604 and EC2608. [16] 3.3. Future 24 - Hour Key Data - Tonight (17:30): UK December SPGI Services PMI Final Value, previous value 52.1, forecast value 52.1; (21:00): Germany December CPI Annual Rate Preliminary Value, previous value 2.3, forecast value 2. [17] - Tomorrow (21:15): US December ADP Employment Change, previous value - 32,000, forecast value 48,000; (23:00): US December ISM Non - manufacturing Index, previous value 52.6, forecast value 52.3; (23:00): US October Durable Goods Orders MoM Final Value, previous value - 2.2%, forecast value - 2.2%. [18]

Group 1: Daily News Summary - From December 29th, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army organized military exercises in multiple regions around Taiwan, with live - fire shooting on December 30th from 8:00 to 18:00, aiming to safeguard national sovereignty [2] - The State Council Tariff Commission announced the 2026 tariff adjustment plan on December 29th, with 935 items to have lower import provisional tax rates starting from January 1st, 2026 [2] - The Central Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 29th to 30th, deploying 2026's "Three Rural" work [3] - On January 1st, 2026, a new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operation mechanism, and ecosystem will be launched, entering the digital deposit money era [3] - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung will visit China from January 4th to 7th, 2026, which is his first visit to China after taking office [4] - Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to attack President Putin's residence, while Kiev refuted it, adding uncertainty to the peace prospects in Ukraine [4] - US President Trump said the US had "struck" an area in Venezuela and threatened to attack Iran if it rebuilds its nuclear project. He also threatened to sue Fed Chair Powell and plans to announce the next Fed Chair in January [5] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the market rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.1423 trillion yuan. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose by 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.38%, and 0.04% respectively [6] - Overseas macro - environment is friendly, and China usually achieves an economic "good start" in Q1. The macro - policy will be positive and loose at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year, which is conducive to the recovery of market risk appetite. The spring offensive in 2026 started in December 2025 [7] - Investors are advised to focus on the central bank's liquidity management, overseas market performance after Christmas and New Year, and the performance of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks after the resumption of north - bound trading. Also, pay attention to sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, PCB upstream, and embodied fields, and allocate non - bank sectors [7] Group 3: Treasury Futures - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 3125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 593 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2532 billion yuan. The money market was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate was 1.24% [9] - Since December, the bond market has been greatly affected by news. The short - term upward momentum of the bond market is limited due to the delay of reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations and the strong performance of the equity market [9] - The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate before new drivers emerge. It is recommended to sell high and buy low and operate with a light position [9] Group 4: Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector weakened significantly. Platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit down for two consecutive days, and Shanghai gold and silver futures fell by 3.11% and 4.03% respectively [12][13] - Speculative funds are retreating. The CME's initial position data on the 29th showed that positions in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium were all reduced [13] - After the overseas December gold, silver, and palladium futures deliveries, the non - exceeding - expected delivery data and relatively low ETF margin - lending rates indicate that the overseas spot shortage has not yet formed. The market is expected to have potential due to low global visible inventories and low registered warehouse receipts of Cmx silver futures [13] - It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits before the holiday and hold long positions with a light position (de - leveraged) during the holiday. After stabilization, the fundamental strength is expected to be silver > gold > platinum > palladium [13] Group 5: Future 24 - Hour Key Data - Tomorrow (January 1st): At 08:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting. At 21:30, the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US Q3 real GDP, the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US Q3 core PCE price index, and the preliminary monthly rate of the US October durable goods orders will be announced. At 22:15, the US October industrial production monthly rate will be released. At 23:00, the US December Conference Board consumer confidence index will be announced [18]

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 75,000 CNY per ton, supported by a tight concentrate supply and declining domestic social inventory[3] - Global refined copper production is projected to increase from 26,503 thousand tons in 2023 to 27,150 thousand tons in 2024, with a further rise to 27,875 thousand tons in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.8%[11] - The global copper concentrate production is forecasted to rise from 22,367 thousand tons in 2023 to 22,806 thousand tons in 2024, indicating a 2.0% increase[11] Group 2: Aluminum Market Dynamics - The average cost of primary aluminum production is approximately 16,800 CNY per ton, with marginal costs reaching around 18,700 CNY per ton[3] - China's aluminum production is expected to be 334.0 thousand tons in February 2025, with a consumption of 353.6 thousand tons, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance[34] - Global alumina production is projected to decrease from 1,215 thousand tons in January 2025 to 1,087 thousand tons in February 2025, reflecting a tightening supply[33] Group 3: Zinc Supply and Demand - Zinc concentrate imports are expected to remain high, with a projected import volume of 35.0 thousand tons in February 2025, while domestic consumption is estimated at 43.9 thousand tons[58] - The zinc ingot production is forecasted to be 48.1 thousand tons in February 2025, with a consumption of 51.4 thousand tons, indicating a supply deficit of 3.6 thousand tons[59] - The processing fee for zinc concentrate is showing an upward trend, reflecting improved profitability for smelters[60] Group 4: Lead and Nickel Trends - The lead market is experiencing a recovery in raw material supply, with a potential impact on production plans if lead prices decline significantly[4] - Nickel prices have shown volatility, with recent quotes around 28,210 CNY per ton, influenced by market sentiment and supply chain dynamics[4] - The nickel market is expected to stabilize as the impact of tariffs diminishes, with a rebound anticipated in the near future[4]

Supply Analysis - Domestic BC asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 25.3% last week, with an expected increase this week; January production is projected to decline by 5%[4] - January asphalt import volume for China is estimated at 200,000 tons[17] Demand Analysis - Last week's BC implied demand four-week moving average decreased by 4% year-on-year; LZ implied demand decreased by 7% year-on-year[29] - Actual demand in various regions shows mixed trends, with Northwest winter storage demand prevailing, while Northeast traders are reluctant to stock due to high costs[26] Inventory Analysis - Last week, refinery inventory increased by 0.62% to 22.07%, with expectations of increased production this week; total national demand is expected to decrease, leading to an anticipated inventory increase[30] - Social inventory of asphalt decreased by 0.24% last week, but is expected to increase this week[36] Profit Analysis - Last week's theoretical after-tax profit for asphalt refineries was -380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167 yuan; delayed coking profit was -743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan[47] Price Spread Analysis - As of the close, the 06 contract basis in Shandong was -120, indicating a neutral market position[55] - The price spread between coking materials and asphalt was 1,013 yuan/ton, indicating a bullish sentiment[54]