ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-06-20 11:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 254 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for BYD's overseas expansion, drawing parallels with Toyota's successful export history. It highlights the importance of volume growth in new markets and profit growth in stable markets as key drivers for stock price appreciation [5][6]. - The report forecasts significant revenue growth for BYD, projecting revenues of 803.92 billion CNY in 2024, 956.01 billion CNY in 2025, and 1,137.01 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 19%, and 19% respectively [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue (in million CNY): 2022A: 424,061; 2023A: 602,315; 2024E: 803,920; 2025E: 956,010; 2026E: 1,137,010 [2]. - Net profit (in million CNY): 2022A: 16,622 (growth rate: 96.2%); 2023A: 30,041 (growth rate: 42.0%); 2024E: 37,540.1 (growth rate: 33.5%); 2025E: 47,630.0 (growth rate: 18.9%); 2026E: 54,410.0 (growth rate: 18.9%) [2]. - Earnings per share (CNY): 5.71, 10.33, 12.90, 16.37, 18.70 for the years 2024E to 2026E [2]. - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: 44.5, 24.6, 19.7, 15.5, 13.6 for the years 2024E to 2026E [2]. - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio: 6.7, 5.3, 4.2, 3.3, 2.7 for the years 2024E to 2026E [2]. Market Expansion Insights - BYD's export strategy focuses on regions such as Southeast Asia and Latin America for immediate volume growth, while Europe is seen as a long-term profit growth area [7]. - The Asia-Pacific division has a total market potential of 10 million vehicles, with a current penetration rate of 2% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The European division is projected to have a total market of 1.3 million vehicles, with a new energy penetration rate exceeding 20% [7]. - The Americas division focuses on Central and South America, with a total market of approximately 6 million vehicles [11]. Strategic Comparisons - The report draws comparisons between BYD and Toyota, noting that both companies share a focus on efficiency, quality, and technology [5][6]. - Historical analysis of Toyota's export phases indicates that stock price increases were significantly correlated with volume growth during initial market expansions and profit growth during stable periods [6]. Overall Market Position - BYD's market capitalization is approximately 738.95 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 295.27 billion CNY [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 2,909 million shares, with 1,162 million shares in circulation [3]. This comprehensive analysis highlights BYD's strong growth potential and strategic positioning in the global automotive market, particularly in the context of expanding its export capabilities.