弘亚数控：国内存量消费升级，逐步完善海外布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.30 CNY per share based on a 15x PE valuation for the expected net profit in 2024 [42][40][66]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for home renovation, particularly in the context of the growing stock of existing homes and the ongoing urban renewal projects [30][33]. - The furniture industry is experiencing price pressure, leading to a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which is expected to drive the adoption of domestic equipment [39][12]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, with significant growth in overseas revenue, indicating a successful international strategy [36][64][89]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Renovation Demand and Consumer Upgrades - The report highlights a steady increase in per capita consumer spending in China, with housing expenditures being a significant component, indicating a shift towards higher quality living standards [30][31]. - The share of renovation demand from existing homes has surpassed 50%, with projections suggesting it will reach 53% in 2023 and 57% by 2027, driven by second-hand home renovations and urban renewal efforts [33][9]. Section 2: Price Pressure in the Furniture Industry - Data from eight listed furniture companies show a median price decline of approximately 3% for wardrobes and cabinets in 2023, with most companies experiencing a drop in unit prices [12][39]. - Despite price declines, the per capita output of these companies has been on the rise, indicating a focus on efficiency and productivity improvements [14][39]. Section 3: International Expansion and Equipment Demand - The report notes a significant increase in furniture exports, with a 16.6% year-on-year growth in the first five months of 2024, suggesting a robust demand for furniture machinery [36][39]. - The company has seen its overseas revenue grow tenfold over the past decade, reflecting successful international market penetration [64][36]. Section 4: Product and Capacity Development - The company is continuously upgrading its product offerings and expanding production capacity, with new manufacturing bases in Guangzhou and Foshan expected to enhance output [40][88]. - The introduction of advanced automation technologies is expected to improve production efficiency and reduce costs, aligning with industry trends towards higher automation rates [18][39]. Section 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 7.16 billion CNY, 8.65 billion CNY, and 10.46 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with a consistent growth rate of around 21% [41][91]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position and ongoing product innovation as key drivers for future growth [66][40].