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高盛:餐饮行业高盛消费者考察– 超级高收获稳定的海外扩张, 提高本地客户渗透率
中国银行·2024-06-21 05:27

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights Super Hi's steady overseas expansion and enhanced local customer penetration as key growth drivers [2] - Management expects mid-single-digit to high-single-digit operating profit margin (OPM) in 2024, supported by higher table turns and enhanced management, despite higher wage costs [1][5] - Outbound tourism from China during holidays is identified as a tailwind for the company's performance [1][5] Store Expansion - As of May 2024, Super Hi has 121 stores, with 6 new store openings in the first five months of 2024 [1][5] - Management targets over 10 store openings in 2024, with a goal of 30% new stores under plan annually compared to the previous year's total store count [3][5] - In the mid-to-long term, customer base expansion and operational capability are seen as critical factors for store growth [5] Store Economics - Management views a 10%-15% restaurant margin as reasonable for overseas markets, with the gap compared to China stores attributed to higher rental costs and table turn ceilings [4][5] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is 66%, with labor costs at around 30% in 2023, and rental expenses (including ROU depreciation) at 7%-8% overseas, compared to 3%-4% in China [7][8] - Average capital expenditure (capex) for overseas stores is 3million,withpaybackperiodsof23yearsinAsiaand45yearsinEurope/NorthAmerica[8]CustomerProfileLocalcustomers(nonChinese)accountforapproximately503 million, with payback periods of 2-3 years in Asia and 4-5 years in Europe/North America [8] Customer Profile - Local customers (non-Chinese) account for approximately 50% of Super Hi's total customer base, with regional variations: 60%-70% in Asian markets and up to 80%-90% in countries like Vietnam, while Chinese customers dominate in Europe/North America at around 70% [5] - The primary customer demographic is adults below 45 years old, with university students also being a significant cohort [5] Table Turn and Repeat Purchase Rate - Table turn improved to 3.9x in 1Q24, up from 3.3x in 1Q23, with further growth expected in 2Q24 [1][5] - Management sets different table turn targets by store type: 4-4.5x for high-performing stores, with lower targets for less favorable locations [5] - The repeat purchase rate for members is 3-4 times per year, supported by a membership program similar to Haidilao's model in China [5] New Brand Incubation - Super Hi is committed to new brand incubation, testing noodle shops and rice bowl shops in various markets, including the US and Singapore [4][9] - The company offers regional managers a budget to launch new brands and provides incentives if the first store is successful [9] Average Selling Price (ASP) - The average ASP for Super Hi is 25 overseas, compared to approximately RMB 100 in China, with higher ASPs in the US (5050-60) and Southeast Asia similar to tier-2 cities in China [5][7]