首席周观点：2024年第25周

Group 1 - The FOMC's dot plot indicates a significant tightening, with the median expected rate cut for the year reduced from 75 basis points to 25 basis points, reflecting a shift in the committee's stance on monetary policy [2][3] - Current economic indicators such as GDP growth at 2.84% year-on-year and a stable unemployment rate do not support the need for rate cuts, with inflation being the primary driver for any potential cuts [3][4] - The real estate sector is experiencing a negative feedback loop due to declining property prices, which suppresses consumer spending and further reduces housing demand, leading to a continuous cycle of price drops [7][8][9] Group 2 - The real estate industry's downturn is impacting local government revenues and overall domestic demand, as the decline in property sales affects land sales income, which is crucial for local government finances [23] - The report anticipates a new balance in the real estate sector as systemic policies are implemented, suggesting that the industry may stabilize and return to a healthier growth trajectory [9] - The construction and building materials sector is expected to face challenges due to the real estate slump, but there are opportunities for growth as the market seeks to establish a new equilibrium [24] Group 3 - The AI server market is evolving with the introduction of the "Meta Brain" ecosystem, which aims to enhance collaboration between software developers and distribution channels, marking a transition to a more integrated sales model [12] - The domestic airline industry is showing signs of recovery, with a slight increase in capacity and passenger load factors, although international routes remain under pressure due to seasonal factors [28][30] - The insurance sector is projected to see a recovery in demand driven by increased consumer awareness and favorable economic conditions, with expectations for improved performance across life and property insurance segments [32][34]