中观高频景气和基本面混频预测图谱（2024.06）：可选消费景气上行，TMT行业内景气分化

Group 1: Macro Overview - The overall sentiment in downstream consumer sectors is improving, with discretionary consumption in social services, home appliances, and retail showing an upward trend [3] - In essential consumption, textiles and apparel, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are on the rise, while food and beverage sectors are declining, and the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors remain stable [3] Group 2: Industry Performance - As of mid-June, there is a divergence in the performance of upstream resource industries and downstream manufacturing sectors: the oil and petrochemical, steel, and basic chemical industries are improving, while the non-ferrous metals industry is declining [7] - In downstream manufacturing, the mechanical equipment sector is showing a downward trend in key price indicators, while the construction and decoration sectors are experiencing a boost [7] - Supportive service sectors, including utilities and environmental protection, are on the rise, while the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector shows significant divergence, with electronics maintaining an upward trend, media remaining stable, and the computer sector declining [8] Group 3: Inventory Cycles - The inventory levels in downstream consumer industries are showing continued divergence: food manufacturing and beverage inventories are decreasing, indicating a destocking cycle, while inventories in agricultural processing, textiles, tobacco, wood processing, furniture manufacturing, and paper industries are generally increasing, indicating a replenishment cycle [105]