2024年下半年A股策略展望：风格决定胜负，科技成长崛起

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for a "rise in the East and a fall in the West" in nominal economic growth in the second half of the year, driven by the narrowing of the nominal GDP growth differential between China and the US, which is expected to support the recovery of Chinese asset prices [3][102]. Economic Trends - The divergence between US manufacturing and services sectors has persisted since late 2022, marking the longest period of such divergence since 2000, primarily due to the impact of government stimulus during the pandemic and subsequent inflationary pressures [6][8]. - US consumer spending is showing signs of weakening, with retail sales growth in May at only 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%, indicating a gradual cooling of consumer demand [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the recovery of global manufacturing demand will support domestic industrial capacity utilization and stimulate inventory replenishment, which will positively impact economic growth and corporate profitability in China [37]. - The focus on technology stocks is emphasized as a key investment opportunity, with the report recommending a shift towards sectors that can benefit from the ongoing technological advancements and supportive government policies [30][117]. Policy Implications - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing credit access are expected to stimulate housing demand and support the broader economy [40][56]. - The report notes that the upcoming policy measures from the third plenary session are likely to emphasize "new quality productivity," which will further drive investment in technology and innovation [129]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share market styles has become more pronounced since 2015, suggesting that changes in US interest rates will significantly influence investment styles in the Chinese market [123]. - The ongoing global economic environment, characterized by a potential easing of US monetary policy, is expected to favor growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, as liquidity conditions improve [112][117].