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高盛:互联网618购物节5大亮点;行业老牌公司反击的主题继续
中国银行·2024-06-23 06:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou, while giving a Neutral rating to Vipshop and Dada Nexus [11]. Core Insights - The 618 Shopping Festival saw a prolonged duration with more spread-out sales, leading to mid-to-high single-digit industry GMV growth on a net basis and low double-digit gross GMV growth [2][25]. - There is a notable fightback from incumbents like Alibaba, which focused on GMV growth, while Douyin's GMV growth moderated [3][28]. - Increased competition on price and subsidies was observed, with platforms like Alibaba and JD investing heavily in user subsidies to drive growth [29][32]. - Higher return rates, particularly in apparel, were noted, driven by favorable return policies and increased consumer value consciousness [32][33]. - Adtech upgrades are expected to bring long-term monetization upside, with Alibaba rolling out new marketing functions during the festival [9][34]. Summary by Sections 5 Key Highlights - The festival had three sales peaks due to an early start, with a significant increase in parcel volumes observed [25][26]. - Alibaba's early start likely benefited its GMV growth, while the cancellation of pre-sales aimed to enhance user experience [25][28]. - Livestreaming GMV growth has moderated significantly, indicating a maturing market [3][28]. Broader Picture of the Festival; 2Q Outlook for Key eCommerce Names - The report outlines key growth highlights across platforms, with over 10,000 brands achieving more than 5x GMV growth in the first four hours of JD's festival [37]. - Electronics and appliances saw substantial growth, with many brands achieving over 100% GMV growth [37]. Engagement Data - The report highlights the engagement metrics during the festival, noting significant increases in viewer numbers and trade-in orders [37]. Discount Level & Benefits Comparison - Price competitiveness has intensified, with platforms offering substantial discounts and subsidies to attract consumers [29][31]. Category Performance - Various categories such as beauty, apparel, and electronics showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant declines in growth compared to previous years [16][37].