高盛：美国费城指数下降;住房开工下降;申请失业金人数仍处高位;下调二季度GDP预测至1.9%

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined by 3.2 points to +1.3 in June, contrary to expectations for a slight increase, with mixed underlying components [4][6] - Housing starts fell by 5.5% to 1,277k (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in May, marking the lowest level since June 2020, against consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase [6][7] - Building permits decreased by 3.8% to 1,386k (saar) in May, also against expectations for a 0.7% increase, with declines in both multi-family and single-family permits [7] - Initial jobless claims slightly decreased to 238k for the week ended June 15, remaining elevated compared to the average level seen in the first five months of the year [8] - The Q2 GDP tracking estimate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to +1.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized rate) [8] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed a decline to +1.3 in June, with new orders and employment components increasing, while shipments decreased significantly [4][6] Housing Market - Housing starts dropped by 5.5% in May, with a notable decline in single-family starts contributing to the overall decrease, while multi-family starts also saw a decline [6][7] - Building permits also fell by 3.8% in May, with significant regional variations in permit issuance [7] Labor Market - Initial jobless claims showed a slight decline but remained above average levels, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [8] Economic Outlook - The Q2 GDP tracking estimate was adjusted downwards, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [8]