宏观周报：陆家嘴论坛释放哪些信号？

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy framework, focusing less on total financial growth metrics like social financing and M2, and more on M1 adjustments[1] - The PBOC emphasizes the need for a market-oriented interest rate adjustment mechanism, with a preliminary formation of an interest rate corridor[3] - The central bank plans to include secondary market government bond trading as a monetary policy tool, aiming to manage liquidity without resorting to quantitative easing[3] Market Trends - This week, northbound capital saw a net outflow exceeding 16 billion RMB, attributed to both the impact of the RMB exchange rate and insufficient confidence in the economic fundamentals[1] - Despite the recent outflows, there is potential for orderly foreign capital replenishment as market sentiment improves, contingent on external factors like US-China relations and geopolitical risks[1] Real Estate Market - Following the implementation of new real estate policies, housing prices in 70 major cities have shown a month-on-month decline, with a slight increase in the year-on-year drop[1] - In June, the transaction volume of new residential properties in Shanghai increased by 0.6%, but overall growth remains limited[1] Currency and Exchange Rates - The RMB/USD exchange rate hit a new low for the year, with the onshore and offshore RMB both reaching their lowest levels since mid-November 2023[2] - The PBOC's recent adjustments to the RMB's central parity aimed to alleviate depreciation pressure, with the onshore RMB deviating close to the 2% volatility limit[2] Commodity Market - Oil prices are expected to strengthen in the short term due to OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical instability, with Brent crude rising by 3.2% to over $85.24 per barrel[3] - Gold prices fell by 0.6% to $2,334.7 per ounce, while a recent survey indicated that 29% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest proportion since 2018[3]