2024年5月经济数据点评：5月经济运行相对平稳，结构性特征突出

Economic Overview - In May 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3015.8907, while the CSI 300 Index was at 3536.1986, and the Shenzhen Component Index reached 9281.2537[2] - The overall economic operation in China is stable, with notable structural characteristics, including steady recovery in consumption and robust industrial production, while real estate investment remains a significant drag[2] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of +3.7%, up by 1.4 percentage points from April, and a month-on-month increase of +0.51%, up by 0.45 percentage points from April[9] - The cumulative retail sales growth for the first five months of 2024 was +4.1%, still significantly below pre-pandemic levels, indicating that consumer spending requires further recovery[9] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (FAI) in May 2024 grew by +3.4%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with manufacturing investment at +9.4%, infrastructure investment at +3.78%, and real estate investment declining by -11.0%[27] - High-tech manufacturing investment recorded a growth of +10.4% in the first five months, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing investment growth[47] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment in May 2024 decreased by -10.0%, with residential, office, and commercial property investments down by -10.9%, -18.3%, and -13.2% respectively[50] - The inventory of commercial housing stood at 2.348 billion square meters, with a depletion cycle of 33.2 months, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market[33] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment in May 2024 was +3.8%, down by 2.1 percentage points from April, with a cumulative growth of +6.7% for the first five months[34] - The issuance of special bonds increased significantly in May, reaching 438.3 billion yuan, the highest monthly issuance this year, which is expected to support future infrastructure investment growth[53] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in May 2024 grew by +5.6%, slightly below market expectations, with a cumulative growth of +6.2% for the first five months[76] - The performance of industrial production has shown signs of slowing, with only five out of seventeen sub-industries reporting an increase in growth compared to April[78]