2026年01月31日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报 (2026年第四期) 2025 券商业绩整体向好，关注券商估值修复 市场表现: 本期（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）非银(申万)指数+1.04%、行业排 7/31,券商Ⅱ指 数-0.69%,保险II指数+5.50%; 上证综指-0.44%，深证成指-1.62%，创业板指-0.09%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：中国人寿（+8.73%）、中国太保（+8.48%）、新华保险 (+8.40%）、华鑫股份（+4.53%）、中国平安（+4.46%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位: 拉卡拉（-9.93%）、越秀资本（-8.00%）、浙江东方（- 6.37%）、华金资本（-6.18%）、海南华铁（-6.14%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 作者 相关研究报告 市场层面,本周,证券板块下跌 0.69%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.77pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.25pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.36 倍。 本周,券商密集发布业绩快报及预增报告,截至１月 30日,已有中信证券为代表 的四家上市券商披露业绩快报 ...

2026年01月31日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报 (2026年第四期) 2025 券商业绩整体向好，关注券商估值修复 市场表现: 本期（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）非银(申万)指数+1.04%、行业排 7/31,券商Ⅱ指 数-0.69%,保险II指数+5.50%; 上证综指-0.44%，深证成指-1.62%，创业板指-0.09%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：中国人寿（+8.73%）、中国太保（+8.48%）、新华保险 (+8.40%）、华鑫股份（+4.53%）、中国平安（+4.46%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位: 拉卡拉（-9.93%）、越秀资本（-8.00%）、浙江东方（- 6.37%）、华金资本（-6.18%）、海南华铁（-6.14%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块下跌 0.69%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.77pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.25pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.36 倍。 本周,券商密集发布业绩快报及预增报告,截至１月 30日,已有中信证券为代表 的四家上市券商披露业绩快报,另有国泰海通、国联 ...

2026年A股年度策略报告 2026年2月3日 AI 兴，再通胀，驭慢牛 2026年A股年度策略报告 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640515120001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59562478 庞庞庞dongzy@avicsec .com 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640520030001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59219572 庞庞庞liuqd@avicsec .com 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640123090015 庞庞庞wangjybj@avicsec .com 庞庞 庞庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640124040009 庞庞庞pangc 019@avic .com 庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640124060008 庞庞庞yangzm@avicsec .com 2 ➢ 全球政经格局来看 ，2025 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 ...

2026年A股年度策略报告 2026年2月3日 AI 兴，再通胀，驭慢牛 2026年A股年度策略报告 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640515120001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59562478 庞庞庞dongzy@avicsec .com 2 ➢ 全球政经格局来看 ，2025 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 ➢ 从大类资产中长期角度看 ，2025年进一步确认了全球两大趋势 ，即逆全球化与 AI科技革命，未来或将至少持续 5-10年。 美元或已进入长期贬值周期 ，全球商品有望进入新一轮 "超级周期"，黄金、铜以及部分小金属等资源品价格或将持 续上涨。 ➢ 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 股有望步入长 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Overweight" [1][28]. Core Insights - Domestic and international grid investment trends are resonating, leading to rapid growth in demand for grid equipment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2]. - The aging of power grids in developed countries is driving a strong demand for global grid upgrades and renovations [3]. - The ongoing AI infrastructure development is expected to generate a demand for electrical equipment worth hundreds of billions [4]. - The domestic grid is accelerating its transformation to support the construction of a new power system, which is likely to boost demand for domestic electrical equipment [6]. Summary by Sections Section: Investment Trends - The mismatch between renewable energy investments and grid investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan is setting the stage for unprecedented levels of domestic grid investment and upgrades [2]. - From 2019 to 2023, domestic grid investment growth rates lagged behind power generation projects, but a reversal is expected starting in 2024 [12]. Section: Global Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts significant global grid investment needs, with a projected investment of 5,840 billion by 2030 [3]. - The global data center electricity consumption is expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7% from 2024 to 2030 [26]. Section: Future Projections - The demand for AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) distribution systems is projected to range from 863 to 2,878 billion from 2025 to 2030 [27]. - The UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply) market is expected to see a market space of 385 to 1,284 billion during the same period [27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the securities sector experienced a decline of 2.21% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points. The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.38 times [1][2]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.46%, and its operating revenue reached 74.83 billion yuan, up 28.75% year-on-year. This performance is attributed to the overall upward trend in the domestic capital market and increased investor confidence [2][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions in enhancing industry competitiveness and resource allocation, suggesting that regulatory encouragement for industry consolidation will support high-quality development [3][6]. Summary by Sections Securities Weekly Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume of A-shares was 34,651 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 21.50%, with a daily turnover rate of 5.41%, up 0.92 percentage points [12]. - As of January 16, 2026, the equity financing scale reached 115.727 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 3 billion yuan and additional financing of 109.6 billion yuan [14]. - The total balance of margin financing was 27,187.27 billion yuan, showing an increase of 911.36 billion yuan from the previous week [21]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - As of November 2025, the total assets of insurance companies reached 40.65 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.50%. Life insurance companies accounted for 35.75 trillion yuan of this total [29]. - The original insurance premium income for the industry in November 2025 was 57,628.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the securities sector experienced a decline of 2.21% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points. The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.38 times [1][2]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 38.46%, and its operating revenue reached 74.83 billion yuan, up 28.75% year-on-year. This performance is attributed to the overall upward trend in the domestic capital market and increased investor confidence [2][35]. - The report emphasizes that the growth drivers for the industry in 2025 will be diverse, with traditional businesses showing resilience and investment banking benefiting from a recovery in the equity financing market [2][6]. Summary by Sections Securities Weekly Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's performance is closely monitored, with traditional businesses like brokerage and proprietary trading showing high elasticity in growth due to increased market activity [2][9]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - The insurance sector saw a decline of 3.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points. China Life Insurance reported over 62.24 million claims in 2025, with a total claim amount exceeding 100.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [7][8]. - The overall insurance industry achieved a premium income of 576.29 billion yuan in November 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.56% [25][8]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that regulatory encouragement for industry consolidation is present, with mergers and acquisitions seen as effective means for brokerages to achieve external growth. This consolidation is expected to enhance industry competitiveness and resource allocation [3][6][30].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of regulatory adjustments aimed at controlling excessive market enthusiasm while ensuring sustainable growth [8][9][10] - It emphasizes the importance of the AI technology revolution and the trend of de-globalization, which are expected to persist for the next 5-10 years, creating investment opportunities in related sectors [9][10][22] - The report suggests that the Chinese economy is in a transition phase, benefiting from a unified market policy and a low-interest-rate environment, which may lead to increased foreign capital inflows into RMB assets [10][12] Market Overview - The A-share market saw a significant trading volume of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, marking a historical high, but subsequently retreated to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of market exuberance [8][9] - The report notes that the recent increase in the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% by the regulatory authority reflects a counter-cyclical adjustment strategy [8][9] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in commodities such as copper, rare earths, and gold, which are expected to gain value amid geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trend of de-globalization [10][18][20] - It also points out that the rapid development of AI is likely to drive demand for computing power and related infrastructure, benefiting sectors like new energy vehicles and resource materials [22][24] Economic Trends - The report anticipates that the global economy will continue to experience a loose monetary policy environment, with fiscal expansions expected in major economies, which may further enhance liquidity and support resource sectors [20][22] - Historical data indicates that periods of RMB appreciation are often accompanied by significant foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets, suggesting a favorable outlook for the A-share market [10][12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the misunderstanding of consumption trends in the agricultural food industry, highlighting three key aspects: "health," "happiness," and "value" [3][5]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - China's final consumption expenditure accounts for approximately 55% of GDP, significantly lower than developed countries like the US, UK, and Japan, which hover around 80% [6][8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has shown a downward trend since September 2022, with a slight increase in November 2025, reaching a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, still below that of developed economies [6][8]. - The report indicates a shift in consumer behavior towards health-related investments, with a growing focus on proactive health management rather than reactive treatment [17][18]. Group 2: Health Consumption - The health sector is driven by the "Healthy China" strategy, with increasing consumer awareness leading to a rise in health-related products and services [17][79]. - The market for health-related products is expanding across all age groups, with younger consumers becoming a significant force in health consumption [79]. - The report suggests that the health supplement market in China has substantial growth potential compared to developed countries, where penetration rates are higher [79]. Group 3: Happiness Consumption - The report identifies a growing trend in emotional consumption, particularly in the pet economy, where consumers are willing to spend on experiences and emotional satisfaction [80]. - The emotional economy in China is projected to reach approximately 23,077.67 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year increase [17][80]. - Domestic pet food companies are expected to benefit from the ongoing growth in the pet economy, with a focus on brand marketing and channel development [80]. Group 4: Value Consumption - Chinese consumers are becoming more pragmatic, focusing on value and price rather than brand prestige, with over 55% of consumers comparing prices across platforms before purchasing [18][17]. - The report highlights the importance of promotional activities in attracting consumers to new brands, with nearly half of consumers influenced by significant discounts [18][17]. - The agricultural sector is expected to see a rational adjustment in production capacity, particularly in the pig farming industry, which is under pressure from high supply and seasonal demand fluctuations [65][81]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on health-related companies such as Jin Dawei, Tang Chen Bei Jian, and Kang Bi Te, which have strong brand advantages in the health supplement market [79]. - In the pet food sector, companies like Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong, and Pei Di are highlighted as leaders poised to capitalize on the growing pet economy [80]. - For the pork industry, the report suggests investing in leading companies like Mu Yuan and Wen's, which are expected to maintain profitability and shareholder returns despite market fluctuations [81].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1][9] Core Insights - The military industry has expanded significantly, now encompassing civil aviation, low-altitude economy, information security, military trade, commercial aerospace, and civil shipping, leading to a substantial increase in market space and potential ceiling [5] - The military industry is experiencing a robust market performance, with the military index reaching a ten-year high of 11597.90, reflecting a 130.27% increase [6] - The report highlights the importance of the "Big Military" concept, which opens up higher ceilings for the industry beyond traditional military needs [5] Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The military index has shown strong growth, with a historical high in weekly trading volume, indicating a bullish market sentiment [6][8] - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests that the military industry will continue to adapt to changes in production relationships and competitive landscapes, leading to the emergence of more dynamic industry players [5] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies several key areas for investment, including low-altitude economy, military trade, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to drive future growth [5][6]