2025年 12月 02 日 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 中农立华（603970） 周期望好,攻守兼备 报告摘要 ◆ 25Q3 收入增长,盈利周期承压 2025 年前三季度,公司实现营业收入 89.50 亿元,同比增长 5.11% ;实现归母净利润 1.51 亿元,同比下降 13.63%;扣非归母净利润为 1.46 亿元,同比下降13.15%。单季度来看,O3 实现营业收入 22.05 亿元, 同比增长 11.16%。Q3 单季度实现归母净利润 907 万元,同比下滑。公 司盈利承压主要系价格周期、行业竞争、市场淡季、减值和毛利率降低 等因素所致。 ◆ 周期有望改善,攻守可以兼备 农药价格下行周期经历较长时间。据 iFind,截至 11 月 21 日当周原 药价格指数为 74.08 点,较 21 年高点累计下降 65.0%,原药价格下行周期 已超４年。农药价格周期积极因素正在积累。一是去库存基本完成。农药 头部企业终端库存去化基本完成,库存处于历史较低水平,下游刚性需求推 动补库存逐步开启。二是成本端推动。环保投入增加,叠加黄磷等原材料 涨价推动农药提价。三是政策端反内卷推进。今年，中国农药工业协会开 ...

证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 2025年12月6日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 把握政策窗口期的投资机会 报告摘要 核心观点: 作者 | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com | | | 刘庆东 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640520030001 | | | 联系电话：010-59219572 | | | 邮箱:liuqd@avicsec.com | | | 王警仪 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525100001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com | | | 李博伦 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525040001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：libl@avicsec.com | | | 庞晨 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640124040009 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：pangc@ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the gaming industry, driven by increased licensing approvals and the acceleration of AI integration [1]. Core Insights - The gaming industry is experiencing a sustained upward trend in market sentiment, supported by a combination of high license issuance and advancements in AI technology [1][19]. - The report highlights a significant increase in daily login frequency among players, rising from 3.2 times to 5.7 times, although the average session duration has decreased to 12 minutes, indicating a shift towards more fragmented gaming experiences [19]. - Game developers are responding to these trends by focusing on lightweight products, such as mini-games, which require lower investment and allow for flexible testing [19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cross-platform experiences and global expansion, as evidenced by recent updates to major game titles and a stable policy environment for international game releases [19]. - AI technology is being leveraged to enhance both development and operational efficiency, with companies like Gigabit and Kaineng Network showcasing significant advancements in cost reduction and development speed [20]. - The report suggests that the combination of supportive policies, industry recovery, and rapid AI implementation constitutes a robust driving force for the gaming sector [20]. Market Review - The social services sector ranked sixth in the weekly performance of Shenwan's primary industry sectors, with a weekly increase of 3.92% [9]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various sub-sectors within the social services industry, highlighting both individual stock performances and overall market trends [9][14]. Industry News Dynamics - Recent initiatives in Shanghai aim to stimulate youth economic development through educational programs, reflecting a broader trend of integrating cultural and economic activities [21]. - The launch of the Beijing-Zhangjiakou ice and snow cultural tourism season illustrates the growing emphasis on combining cultural experiences with tourism to drive economic growth [21]. - The report notes the increasing adoption of AI in cultural heritage education, showcasing innovative projects that enhance engagement and learning through technology [21].

报告摘要 核心观点: 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 2025年11月29日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 重要政策时间窗口前的布局期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址：北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大厦 中航证券有限公司 公司网址：www.avicsec.com 联系电话: 010-59219558 传真：010-59562637 证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 作者 | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com | | | 刘庆东 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640520030001 | | | 联系电话：010-59219572 | | | 邮箱：liuqd@avicsec.com | | | 王警仪 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525100001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com | | | 李博伦 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the social services industry is ranked 15th in terms of weekly performance among the Shenwan first-level industries, with a decline of 4.86% [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of AI technology, particularly the launch of Gemini 3, which is expected to drive a comprehensive upgrade across industries [4][14]. - The performance of the social services sector has been under pressure, as indicated by the weekly and annual performance metrics [8][12]. Market Review - The social services industry experienced a weekly decline of 4.86%, ranking it 15th out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries [8]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the weekly performance of sub-sectors and individual stocks within the social services industry [6][12]. - The report includes various performance metrics for benchmark indices, showing a general downward trend across the board [12].

2025 年 11 月 22 日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 海外对于流动性和 AI 泡沫担忧,A 股正在构建布局机会 报告摘要 核心观点: | 作者 | | | --- | --- | | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com | | | 刘庆东 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640520030001 | | | 联系电话：010-59219572 | | | 邮箱:liuqd@avicsec.com | | | 王警仪 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525100001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com | | | 李博伦 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525040001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：libl@avicsec.com | | | 庞晨 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640124040009 | | | 联系电话: | | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the commercial aerospace industry, particularly in satellite manufacturing and satellite internet sectors, as they are expected to experience significant growth in the coming years [12][14]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is witnessing a recovery, with overall revenue growth of 12.76% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, marking an end to the downward trend observed since 2023 [31]. - The satellite manufacturing sector has shown a remarkable recovery with a year-on-year revenue increase of 85.28%, driven by the completion of satellite system projects and increased orders [32]. - The satellite communication sector is expected to see a shift towards diversified business models, with government-led applications in disaster response and maritime communication leading the way [76]. - The report highlights the emergence of "space computing" as a new frontier, with significant investments from global tech companies aiming to establish space-based data centers [77][80]. Summary by Sections 1. Commercial Aerospace Sector Analysis - The satellite manufacturing sector is experiencing a strong recovery, with a 85.28% increase in revenue year-on-year [32]. - The satellite navigation and measurement control sectors are also growing rapidly, with approximately 16% growth [31]. - The satellite communication sector has ended its decline, achieving a 5.35% year-on-year growth [31]. 2. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in satellite manufacturing and satellite internet, as the construction of satellite constellations accelerates [12]. - Companies intersecting with emerging industries like smart driving and artificial intelligence are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [12]. 3. Recent Developments - The report notes that multiple commercial aerospace companies have initiated IPO guidance, indicating a robust interest in the sector from investors [10]. - The opening of satellite operation licenses is expected to stimulate market activity and create a new landscape for satellite communication [76]. 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the commercial aerospace industry, with increased policy support and resource allocation expected to drive growth [14]. - The integration of satellite internet with terrestrial 5G/6G networks is projected to create a comprehensive information network [76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the military materials sector [2] Core Insights - The military materials sector is expected to gradually recover, driven by energy demand and advancements in controlled nuclear fusion technology [7][8] - The report highlights significant developments in the controlled nuclear fusion industry, which is anticipated to accelerate the application of materials [23][24] - The performance of military materials companies in Q3 2025 showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing profit declines due to order fluctuations and payment schedules [1][31] Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - The military materials industry is witnessing important events, including breakthroughs in controlled nuclear fusion projects, which are expected to enhance material applications [16][23] - The report discusses the cost of raw materials, noting fluctuations in prices for high-temperature alloys and titanium alloys, impacting overall profitability [25][46] Capital Market Status - The military materials sector's monthly performance showed a decline in some areas, with a notable drop in profits for high-temperature alloy companies [28][46] - Q3 2025 financial results indicate a revenue increase of 9.50% for the military materials sector, but a decline in net profit margins [31][32] Key Investment Logic - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in advanced materials and manufacturing processes, such as composite materials and additive manufacturing [11][12] - The emergence of new markets for high-end materials in civilian applications is seen as a potential growth driver for military materials companies [12]

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2] - In October, multiple financial and economic indicators in China showed a decline, but the long-term positive trend of the economy remains intact, supporting the achievement of annual targets[6] PPI Trends - Since June 2025, the PPI year-on-year growth rate has shown a bottoming recovery trend, indicating a potential economic recovery phase[10] - The report identifies two phases of PPI growth: the recovery from the bottom to the pre-positive peak and the return to overall peak levels, with various industries showing different performance in these phases[14] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on industries that are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, including small household appliances, paper, chemical products, and cosmetics, which have shown significant improvement since the policy's implementation[18] - The analysis indicates that cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and machinery have outperformed during the recovery phase of PPI[19] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment has improved, with an increase in average daily trading volume to 20,438.27 billion yuan, up by 314.77 billion yuan from the previous week[5] - The A-share market's overall price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.22, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, indicating a stable valuation environment[5] Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio and focus on sectors aligned with the "anti-involution" and new demand trends, while monitoring key policy meetings and changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook[3] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking the performance of industries with low capacity utilization and profitability that are expanding capacity, as these are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support[18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "B" to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady growth in its main business, with a focus on expanding its cultural tourism sector through diversified operations [1]. - Revenue projections show significant growth, with expected revenues of 860.03 million in 2025, representing a 15.70% increase from the previous year [8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.54 in 2024 to 0.68 in 2025, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [8]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 620.43 million in 2023, with a remarkable growth rate of 218.73% compared to the previous year [8]. - The operating profit is expected to rise to 245.84 million in 2025, up from 210.08 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 17.03% [10]. - The net profit is projected to increase from 144.25 million in 2024 to 181.71 million in 2025, showing a growth rate of 25.96% [10]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of 993.62 million in 2026, which is a 15.53% increase from 2025 [8]. - The report highlights a consistent increase in gross margin, expected to reach 42.97% by 2027 [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 12.41% in 2025 to 14.62% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [10].