2024年电力行业中期策略：电改深化，电力资产价值重估

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - Power demand is expected to grow steadily in the long term, with a projected growth rate of approximately 6% in 2024 [2][19] - The construction of a new power system is advancing, with a transition towards clean and low-carbon power production [3][26] - Deepening electricity reforms are likely to lead to a revaluation of power assets [4][10] - Short-term challenges in renewable energy consumption are being addressed through various measures to promote high-quality development [5][7] - The role of thermal power is transforming, with a restructuring of pricing mechanisms to reflect its value [8] - Hydropower is demonstrating defensive attributes, with improved water inflow boosting generation [9] Summary by Sections 1. Power Demand Growth - Power demand is closely linked to GDP growth, with a long-term expectation of steady increases in electricity consumption [17] - The projected growth rate for total electricity consumption in 2024 is around 6%, driven by economic recovery and industrial growth [19][20] 2. New Power System Construction - The new power system aims for a clean and low-carbon focus, with a significant increase in renewable energy installations expected by 2030 [3][26] - By 2030, renewable energy is anticipated to account for over 40% of installed capacity and over 20% of generation [3][31] 3. Electricity Reform and Asset Revaluation - The electricity market is transitioning from a dual-track system to a fully market-oriented approach, enhancing the role of market mechanisms in resource allocation [4] - The establishment of a unified national electricity market is expected to improve pricing mechanisms and asset valuations in the long term [4][10] 4. Renewable Energy Consumption Challenges - The increasing share of renewable energy is creating challenges for grid stability and consumption, with measures being implemented to enhance system balance [5][7] - The government is promoting infrastructure development and market mechanisms to improve renewable energy consumption rates [7] 5. Thermal Power Transformation - Thermal power is becoming a key flexible resource in the electricity system, with new pricing mechanisms being established to support its role [8] - The implementation of capacity pricing is expected to stabilize the profitability of thermal power companies [8] 6. Hydropower's Defensive Role - Hydropower companies are maintaining high cash dividend ratios, reflecting their stable financial performance [9] - Improved water inflow conditions are leading to a significant recovery in hydropower generation [9]