晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 192 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 10 月 22 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：许雯 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、宏观信息与点评 1、统计局数据显示，初步核算，前三季度，我国 GDP 为 1015036 亿元，同比增长 5.2%。 分季度看，一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，二季度增长 5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%。 2、1-9 月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.2%；全国固定资产投资（不含农户）371535 亿元，同比下降 0.5%，其中，民间投资同比下降 3.1%。9 月，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.2%。 社会消费品零售总额 41971 亿元，同比增长 3.0%。 3、9 月，70 个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅继续呈收窄 态势。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.3%，二手住宅销售价格环比下降 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 191 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 10 月 21 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：李杰 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1、电子行业（李杰） 估值：上周电子 PE（TTM，剔除负值）为 61.09X，PB（LF）为 4.86X 根据 Wind 数据，上周电子 PE（TTM，剔除负值）为 61.09X，环比下降 4.78X，近一年 PE 最大值为 69.14X，最小值为 39.61X。PB（LF）为 4.86X，环比下降 0.36X，近一年 PB 最 大值为 5.49X，最小值为 3.13X。PE 处于近 10 年以来 43.59%分位数，PB 处于近 10 年以来 58.57%分位数。 行业动态点评：台积电公布三季报，AI 需求前景将维持强劲 根据第一财经的报道，10 月 16 日，台积电公布了 2025 年第三季度财报，该季度台积电 ...

[2025]第 190 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 10 月 20 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂 孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：邢维洁 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、宏观策略 1、宏观点评（仇华） 晨 会 纪 要 宏观数据方面，宏观短周期综合指数 9 月份继续小幅反弹，但整体方向依然并不明朗 据 Wind 数据，近期公布的宏观数据有：CPI、PPI、M0、M1、M2 等。 CPI 方面，9 月 CPI 当月同比-0.30%，略好于 8 月的-0.40%，而累计同比继续保持在- 0.10%；PPI 方面，当月同比-2.30%，与 8 月的-2.90%相比明显收窄，也推动累计同比由-2.90% 上升至-2.80%。我们根据 9 月 30 日公布的 PMI 数据（49.80%）、PPI 与 CPI 剪刀差、10 年 期国债收益率拟合而成的宏观短周期综合指数 9 月份继续小幅反弹，但整体方向依然并不明 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that TSMC's strong financial results and outlook for AI demand indicate a sustained strong growth trajectory for AI-related sectors [6][8] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with TSMC reporting a 30.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by advanced process technologies [6] - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in consumer electronics, particularly with the introduction of new foldable smartphones and the high demand for AI infrastructure [9] Market Performance - The electronic industry index fell by 7.14% during the week of October 13-17, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 by 4.91 percentage points [11] - Over the past 12 months, the electronic industry has seen a relative return of 37.8% and an absolute return of 56.9% [3][11] Valuation Metrics - The electronic sector's Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) is 61.09X, down 4.78X from the previous week, and is positioned at the 43.59th percentile over the past decade [5][12] - The Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is 4.86X, also reflecting a decrease, and is at the 58.57th percentile historically [5][12] Industry Dynamics - TSMC's revenue from advanced processes accounted for over 70% of its total wafer revenue, with a notable focus on high-performance computing (HPC) which represented 57% of its revenue [6] - The report anticipates continued strong demand for AI, with TSMC increasing its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to between $40 billion and $42 billion [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, edge SOCs, and the supply chain for foldable smartphones, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The feedback from the autumn sugar conference was tepid, and the report suggests a focus on bottom positioning in the food and beverage sector [6][7] - The food and beverage industry showed a slight increase of 0.86% from October 13 to October 17, outperforming the broader market indices [4][9] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a relatively low level, with a PE ratio of 21X, ranking 22nd among the Shenwan first-level industries [17] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From October 13 to October 17, the food and beverage industry rose by 0.86%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4.99% [4][9] - The sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with other alcoholic beverages up by 3.62%, health products up by 2.10%, and liquor up by 1.78% [4][9] Market Insights - During the double festival period, high-end liquor sales (over 100 yuan) decreased by approximately 27%, while low-end liquor (under 100 yuan) saw a decline of less than 10% [6] - The report highlights a shift in the liquor industry towards a consumer-centric model, emphasizing digital marketing and restructuring cost and revenue chains [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: stable demand leaders with strong risk resistance and companies actively innovating in new products, channels, and consumption scenarios [7][46] - Recommended companies include New Dairy, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Yanjinpuzi, and Qingdao Beer [7][46]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating [8] Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector outperformed other pharmaceutical sub-sectors last week, with a 0.38% increase, while the overall pharmaceutical sector declined by 2.48% [2] - The current PE (ttm) for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.9X, which is at the 30.45% percentile since 2013, while the PB (lf) is 2.36X, at the 6.85% percentile since 2013 [3] - The price index for Chinese medicinal materials remained stable due to the National Day holiday, with a total index of 232.77 points [4] - A pilot program for disease-based payment for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is set to begin, which may enhance reimbursement for TCM services [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector recorded a 0.38% increase, while the overall pharmaceutical sector saw a decline of 2.48% [2] - Top-performing companies in the sector include Guizhou BaiLing, Wanbangde, and Darentang, while underperformers include Tianmu Pharmaceutical and Tailong Pharmaceutical [2] Valuation - The PE (ttm) for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.9X, up 0.1X week-on-week, with a one-year maximum of 30.26X and a minimum of 24.72X [3] - The PB (lf) is 2.36X, unchanged from the previous week, with a one-year maximum of 2.59X and a minimum of 2.17X [3] Policy Developments - The pilot program for TCM payment will select around 15 provinces or cities to test the new payment model over 2-3 years, potentially improving the compatibility of TCM services with existing insurance payment methods [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [6][11][12] - Specific recommendations include companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products, as well as those less affected by price reductions from centralized procurement [12]

证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 证券行业周报 成交额小幅回落，融资余额持续增长 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：上周仅两家券商上涨，估值处于中位数之下 根据 Wind 数据，上周（10.13-10.17）上证指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 指数 下跌 2.2%，创业板指下跌 5.7%。申万非银金融指数下跌 1.3%，涨跌幅排 名 9/31，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.9pct；其中，券商指数下跌 3.1%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.9pct。券商指数 PB 为 1.44x，估值较上周小幅回落，处于近十 年的 42%分位数。 上周券商板块表现较弱，仅有信达证券（+3.4%）、东兴证券（+2.7%）两 家券商上涨。 跌幅较大的 5 家券商分别是：华泰证券（-7.1%）、长城证券（-5.2%）、华 西证券（-5.1%）、东方财富（-4.7%）、华创云信（-4.7%）。 ❑ 行业周数据：成交额小幅回落，融资余额持续增长 （1）经纪业务：上周（10.13-10.17），沪深两市日均股票成交额为 21766 亿元（环比-15.9%），成交额较上涨明显回落。从三季度来看， ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 疫苗行业周报 国产 mRNA 技术在前沿领域持续突破 相关研究： 1. 《在研管线开发与国际市场 拓展继续呈现积极进展》 20251005 2. 《短期关注秋季呼吸系统传 染病叠加流行情况》20251012 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 24/10 25/01 25/04 25/07 沪深300_累计 疫苗_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -5 | -16 | -31 | | 绝对收益 | -4 | -7 | -17 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：021-50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 （1）百克生物：三价流感病毒裂解疫苗（BK-01 佐剂）临床试验申请获批。 百克生物近日收到国家药品监督管理局下发的三价流感病毒裂解疫苗（BK-0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][9] Core Insights - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a slight increase of 0.05% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.27 percentage points [5][11] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has slightly decreased to 95.79x, currently at 96.1% of its historical percentile [5][11] - The report indicates a downward trend in rare earth concentrate prices, with significant declines in various rare earth mineral prices [6][8][39] Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of 4%, a 3-month return of 33%, and a 12-month return of 117% [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 3%, 45%, and 136% respectively [4] Price Trends - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices fell by 13.89%, 12.9%, and 15.38% for different types of rare earth minerals [8][12] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 6.11%, while the metal price dropped by 6.63% [8][15] - Dysprosium oxide prices saw a slight increase of 0.62%, while terbium oxide prices declined by 0.57% [18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the supply side of rare earths has limited short-term growth, with stable output from major manufacturers and limited increases in scrap supply [39][40] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies due to expected supply contraction and strategic value positioning [9][42] - Downstream magnetic material companies are also highlighted for potential profit recovery as rare earth prices are expected to rise [9][42]

行业研究 体外诊断行业周报 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 湘财证券研究所 三星与 Grail 合作，入局癌症早筛 --体外诊断行业周报 10.13-10.17 相关研究： 核心要点： 本周医药生物下跌 2.48%，体外诊断下跌 0.43% 根据 Wind 数据，本周申万一级行业医药生物下跌 2.48%，涨幅排名位列申 万 31 个一级行业第 16 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，医药跑输沪深 300 指数 0.26 个百分点。 申万医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 6915.01 点，下跌 5.21%；中药 II 报收 6553.21 点，上涨 0.38%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 13782.07 点，下跌 1.78%； 生物制品Ⅱ报收 6894.63 点，下跌 3.21%；医药商业Ⅱ报收 5045.68 点，下 跌 0.89%；医疗器械 II 报收 7041.35 点，下跌 3.19%。三级行业中体外诊 断报收 8366.36 点，下跌 0.43%。 从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有：透景生命（+22.9%）、 热景生物（+12.5%）、浩欧博（+7.2%）、明德生物（ ...