证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 半导体行业周报 多部门推进新能源车"反内卷"，产业链有望回归良 性发展 相关研究： | 核心要点： | | --- | ❑ 2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 18 日，申万半导体指数小幅上涨 2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 18 日，根据 wind 数据显示，沪深 300 指 数上涨 1.09%，上证综指微幅上涨 0.69%；深证成指上涨 2.04%，科创 50 上涨 1.32%。行业指数方面，申万半导体指数上涨 0.42%。 美国放宽 AI 芯片出口许可，英伟达与 AMD 恢复对华供货。英伟达已获 得美国政府许可，恢复向中国销售 H20 GPU，并将开始发货。AMD 也 确认将恢复对中国出口 MI308 芯片，当前相关出口申请已进入审查流 程，预计将获批准。 进入二季度业绩披露期，根据 wind 数据，中微公司预计 2025 年 H1 归母 净利润预计同比增长 31.61%至 41.28%。拓荆股份预计 2025 年第二季度 扣非归母净利润预计同比增长 235%至 249%。天德钰预计 2025 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 6 月产销加速增长，关注通用设备和工程机械 相关研究： 1.《20250706湘财证券-机械行业：6月 PMI继续回升，看好通用设备与工程机 械》 2.《20250713湘财证券-机械行业：看好 锂电专用设备和工程机械》 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 2.7 4.7 27.5 绝对收益 8.3 12.3 42.2 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ——机械行业周报（2025.07.14~2025.07.20） 核心要点： ❑ 通用自动化设备：6 月金切机床和工业机器人产量加速增长 据 Wind 数 ...

2025 年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重发布，利好新能源消纳 相关研究： 《新疆、蒙西"136号文"承接方案发 布，存量平稳过渡》 2025.06.29 《广东"136号文"征求意见，增量项 目保障比例不超过90%》 2025.05.18 《1-3月风光新增7433万千瓦，电网投 资延续高增》 2025.04.22 证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 公用事业行业周报 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -4 -4 -17 绝对收益 0 4 -2 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：孙菲 证书编号：S0500524010002 Tel：(8621) 50293587 Email：sf06902@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 行情回顾：本周公用事业(申万)下跌 1.37%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.46pct 根据 wind，截至 7 月 18 日，本周沪深 300 上涨 1.09%，公用事业(申万)下 跌 1.37%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.46pc ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 白酒周期调整下，关注渠道变革 相关研究： | 1.《政策加码，支持新型消费》 | | | --- | --- | | 2025.06.29 | | | 2.《茅台批价触底回升，关注高 | | | 成长赛道》 | 2025.07.06 | | 3.《6月CPI边际改善，乳品价格 | | | 持续回暖》 | 2025.07.12 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 7 月 14 日-7 月 18 日，食品饮料行业上涨 0.68% 根据 wind，7 月 14 日-7 月 18 日，上证指数上涨 0.69%，深证成指上涨 2.04%， 沪深 300 指数上涨 1.09%，创业板指上涨 3.17%。申万食品饮料行业上涨 0.68%，涨跌幅排名 14/31，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.41pct，食饮子 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 房地产行业周报 城市发展转向存量提质增效，需求下行仍需政策支持 相关研究： 1.《周度观点：新房、二手房成交 继续放缓，政策出台必要性提升》 2025.7.13 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1 -8 0 绝对收益 4 0 16 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2024/7/11 2024/9/9 2024/11/8 2025/1/7 2025/3/8 2025/5/7 2025/7/6 沪深300 房地产(申万) 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 政策跟踪：城市发展进入存量提质增效阶段 7 月 14 日至 15 日，中央城市工作会议在北京举行。从会议重要性看，城 市工作会议每次都肩负着重要历史任务，上次中央层面召开城市工 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 宏观研究 宏观大类资产周报 ❑ 商品集体上涨 权益上涨，长端信用利差收窄 相关研究： | 1. | 《全球股市上涨，金价维持 | | --- | --- | | 高位》 | 2025.06.07 | | 2. | 《权益盘整，商品上涨》 | | | 2025.06.16 | | 3. | 《国内权益上涨，资金利率 | | 下行》 | 2025.07.11 | 分析师：何超 证书编号： S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email： hechao@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ A 股和港股表现较好 根据 Wind 数据，7 月 14 日~ 7 月 18 日，国内权益市场普遍上涨，创业 板领涨。其中上证指数周涨 0.69%、深证成指周涨 2.04%，创业板周涨 3.17%，科创 50 周涨 1.32%。港股表现优秀，恒生指数周涨 2.84%，恒 生科技周涨 5.53%，港股经历短期调整后继续上涨。美股道琼斯工业指 数周跌 0.07%，纳斯达克指数周涨 1.51% ...

宏观研究 宏观专题 深刻认识内卷，中国开启整治内卷行动 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 深刻认识内卷：过度竞争损害经济发展 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 17 日 湘财证券研究所 1. 《湘财证券-宏观研究-冲突与博 弈加剧的新周期》 分析师：何超 证书编号：S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email：hechao @xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 内卷一词实则由来已久，蕴藏深厚的学术积淀。内卷是个外来词汇，所谓 内卷（involution）与之相对应的是演变（evolution），内卷表示内向密集化， 而不是变革式发展。内卷被认为是一种不产生质变的量变（数量堆砌），一 种缺乏进步意义的精细化、复杂化，一种没有发展的增长，乃至是导致社 会经济停滞倒退的罪魁祸首。 内卷原本出自于农业生产中的人地矛盾激化。随着时代发展内卷之意涵逐 渐衍生，现代经济中内卷实际上是一个人口经济问题，其根源是太多人追 逐相对有限的经济机会，从而形成激烈竞争，并且指向过度竞争损害经济 发展。 ❑ 正视内卷：中国开始采取行动 2025 年 7 月 1 日，（二 ...

Macro Information and Commentary - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The GDP growth for Q1 was 5.4% and for Q2 was 5.2% [3][6] - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24,865.4 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year, with private fixed asset investment declining by 0.6% [3][6] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.16% [3][6] North Exchange Overview - As of June 20, 2025, there were 267 stocks listed on the North Exchange, with an average total market capitalization of 807.743 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.98% from the previous week [7][10] - The average trading volume decreased by 13.60% to 1.287 billion shares, and the average trading value fell by 11.56% to 28.833 billion yuan [8][10] - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1,347.46 points, down 2.55% from the previous week [10] Industry and Company Analysis Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector rose by 0.84% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.03 percentage points [13] - The CPI showed marginal improvement, with dairy prices recovering and the wholesale price of Moutai increasing by 0.52% [14][15] - Investment recommendations focus on stable demand leaders and companies innovating in new products and channels, including Qingdao Beer and Guizhou Moutai [17] Medical Consumables - The optimization of medical procurement rules in Hunan Province aims to enhance procurement volume determination and monitoring [20][21] - Ji Min Health and Shangrong Medical both issued profit warnings, with expected losses due to tariff impacts and declining sales [22][23] - Investment suggestions highlight opportunities in companies recovering from procurement pressures and those innovating in high-value consumables [25] Public Utilities - The public utilities sector rose by 1.11%, with solar power and heating services showing significant gains [27] - Coal prices increased slightly, while natural gas prices also saw a minor rise [28][29] - Investment recommendations focus on hydropower assets and companies benefiting from the transition to a unified electricity market [32] New Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials sector surged by 15.66%, with significant price increases in rare earth minerals [34][35] - Investment suggestions emphasize the potential for price increases in rare earth resources and the recovery of downstream magnetic material companies [39] Real Estate - Real estate sales area and sales amount saw a year-on-year decline, with significant drops in June [40][41] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and those benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions [45] Medical Services - The medical and biological sector rose by 1.82%, with significant growth in the CXO platform, particularly for WuXi AppTec [47][48] - Investment recommendations focus on high-growth companies in the medical outsourcing sector and those expected to improve profitability [49][50] ETF Market - As of July 11, 2025, the total asset management scale of ETFs reached 43,803.08 billion yuan, with a notable increase in the number of new listings [52][53] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on sectors with high PB and ROE, particularly in automotive and agricultural industries [55][57]

Group 1 - The current market is characterized as a "slow bull" phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3500 points, indicating a lack of potential for a "crazy bull" market [1][2][8] - The market is in the sixth cycle since 2005, showing a disconnection between the Shanghai Composite Index and macroeconomic short cycles, reflecting a weak macroeconomic backdrop [10][20] - The management is actively working to prevent a repeat of the brief "crazy bull" markets seen in 2006-2007 and 2014-2015, which could lead to prolonged bear markets [10][20] Group 2 - The outlook for 2025 suggests a prolonged "slow bull" market, with a focus on time over height, influenced by long-term capital inflows, particularly in dividend-related sectors like banking and insurance [4][20] - The investment logic for upstream industries is challenging due to weak PPI, while downstream industries are expected to perform better, aligning with domestic consumption policies [4][20] - The consumer sector may face significant differentiation, with new consumption segments likely to attract more capital, depending on the strength of policy support [20][21] Group 3 - The 2025 market is expected to operate under a combination of the new "National Nine Articles" and a "four trillion" investment trend, with a high probability of a "slow bull" market [21] - Key areas of focus for 2025 include technology, green initiatives, consumption, and infrastructure, as highlighted in the government work report [21] - The market is anticipated to experience slight upward fluctuations in July, supported by long-term capital inflows, particularly in dividend sectors [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [49][56]. Core Insights - The report identifies a turning point in the innovative drug industry, driven by overseas growth and the opening of the domestic market, suggesting a significant growth phase ahead [34]. - The industry is transitioning from capital-driven to profit-driven growth, with a dual recovery in performance and valuation expected [47][49]. - Key factors include the commercialization of innovative products, the acceleration of clinical data breakthroughs, and the introduction of supportive payment policies [50][49]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Validation of the Turning Point in the Innovative Drug Industry - The innovative drug industry in China is entering a recovery phase, characterized by a "profit year" and the implementation of supportive payment policies [5][10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of innovative drug companies achieving over 500 million yuan in revenue, indicating a robust growth trajectory [21][22]. - The domestic market for innovative drugs is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion yuan by 2035, with innovative drugs expected to account for 30% of the market [30][32]. Section 2: Core Technology Cycle Configuration - The next generation of immunotherapy is anticipated to drive a new round of biotechnology cycles, with a focus on product strength and clinical demand [37][40]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on technology cycles, product strength, and clinical needs [44]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies transitioning to innovation, which are expected to see performance and valuation increases [50]. - It also highlights biotech companies with validated research platforms and potential for overseas product registrations as key investment opportunities [50].