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2026年02月A股策略:2月热点或将延续1月的科技、有色等方向
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-21 02:57
证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略月报 2 月热点或将延续 1 月的科技、有色等方向 ——2026 年 02 月 A 股策略 率窄幅震荡》 2025.11.25 证书编号:S0500519120001 Tel:(8621) 50295323 Email:qh3062@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点: 相关研究: 2026 年宏观短周期和中周期有望形成向上共振格局 1. 《20251125湘财证券-策略研 究-12月等待政策定调,市场大概 2. 《20251222湘财证券-策略研 究-1月市场大概率继续窄幅震荡》 2025.12.22 我们预判 2026 年宏观中周期和宏观短周期均处于底部反弹的阶段,有望形 成向上共振格局。具体原因有:一是海外方面,中美贸易冲突缓和,有助于 减轻经济下行压力。二是"十五五"规划即将落地,新质生产力依然是重要 发展方向,随着人工智能等科技领域的快速发展,将有效推动我国产业升级。 三是 2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议定调 2026 年宏观政策为继续实施更加 积极的财政政策、适度 ...
湘财证券晨会纪要-20260121
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-20 23:47
Industry and Company Overview - The home appliance industry experienced a decline of 0.34% this week, with the home appliance components sub-industry leading the gains [2] - The home appliance industry ranks 16th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, while the CSI 300 index declined by 0.57% during the same period [2] - The top five gainers in the home appliance sector this week were Tianyin Electromechanical (+41.20%), Lek Electric (+21.13%), Zhaochi Co. (+18.58%), *ST Gauss (+10.61%), and Hesheng New Materials (+10.37%) [2] Valuation Insights - As of January 16, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-ttm) for the home appliance industry is 15.63 times, ranking 25th among 31 Shenwan industries [3] - The PE ratio for the CSI 300 index is 13.50 times, indicating that the home appliance industry's valuation is relatively low [3] - The valuation percentile for the home appliance industry is 39.2%, further highlighting its investment attractiveness compared to the CSI 300 index's 84.4% [3] Smart Kitchen Appliances Focus - Boss Electric announced a capital increase of 100 million RMB in Youte Smart Kitchen, aiming to deepen its involvement in the cooking robot sector [4] - The cooking robot industry is rapidly expanding, with the Chinese market expected to reach 3.7 billion RMB by 2025 and exceed 11.7 billion RMB by 2030 [4][5] - Global cooking robot market is projected to grow from 4.01 billion USD in 2025 to 12.37 billion USD by 2035, with a CAGR of 11.92% [5] Investment Recommendations - The home appliance industry is transitioning from incremental competition to stock integration, with a focus on efficiency optimization, product innovation, and technological upgrades [6] - Three main investment themes are recommended for 2026: 1. Focus on white goods leaders with solid market positions, improved operational efficiency, and high dividend yields during the industry downturn [6] 2. Identify niche sectors that can explore new demands through new products and technologies, such as kitchen robots and smart home devices [6] 3. Look for opportunities driven by "trade-in" policies and upgrades in AI and smart home industries [6] - The overall rating for the home appliance industry is maintained at "overweight" [6]
啤酒行业2025年12月跟踪:淡季蓄力,复苏将至
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-20 07:05
证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业月报 淡季蓄力,复苏将至 ——啤酒行业 2025 年 12 月跟踪 相关研究: | 1. 《沉舟侧畔千帆过,露酒先发 | | --- | | 一缕春》 2026.01.13 | | 2. 《酒旗风动燕京月,U8潮涌正 | | 青春——燕京啤酒首次覆盖报 | | 告》 2025.12.12 | 行业评级:买入(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -6.4% -9.7% -28.9% 绝对收益 -2.7% -5.3% -5.3% ❑ 啤酒行业整体运行 2025 年 12 月啤酒行业受淡季影响呈现少产去库态势,当月产量较 9 月高 点回落,但其旺季产量与近两年同期持平,全年累计产量有望接近近年高 位,淡季短期产量下滑仅是阶段性调整。进出口方面,整体呈现"进口偏弱、 出口稳增"的差异化格局,考虑到近期人民币汇率强势、进口端高基数效应 减弱、春节错期效应,我们预期 2026 年 1 季度啤酒进口表现有望边际走强。 行业效益端,增加值、营收及利润增速较此前高位有所下行,但未出现持 续深度回落,阶段性 ...
湘财证券晨会纪要-20260118
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-18 14:46
Macro Commentary and Market Analysis - Recent macro data shows a rebound in exports with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6% in December, up from 5.90% in November, leading to an annual cumulative growth rate of 5.50% [2][3] - M2 growth in December was 8.50%, expected to remain around 8% in 2025, indicating a "moderately loose" monetary policy that supports economic recovery [3] - M1 growth was only 3.80% in December, reflecting weak investment and consumption willingness among enterprises and residents [3] - M0 saw a significant increase of 10.2% in December, indicating strong cash demand and active payment activities [3] Industry and Company Analysis - The securities industry experienced a slight decline, with the brokerage index down 2.2%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.6 percentage points [12] - The average daily stock trading volume reached 34,283 billion yuan, a 21.2% increase week-on-week, marking a historical high [13] - The financing scale for equity financing reached 1,113 billion yuan, with significant contributions from large-scale placements [14] - The current PB valuation of the brokerage index is 1.38x, which is at the 35th percentile of the last decade, indicating a low valuation relative to expected earnings growth [12][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "overweight" rating on the securities industry, highlighting the potential for valuation recovery due to favorable regulatory policies and increasing trading activity [15] - Focus is recommended on internet brokerages with strong beta attributes and firms with solid earnings certainty in an active market environment [15]
结构性政策工具降息落地
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-18 13:25
证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业周报 分析师:郭怡萍 证书编号:S0500523080002 Tel:(8621) 50295327 Email:guoyp@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号中 国人寿金融中心10楼 结构性政策工具降息落地 | 1. | 《业绩底部修复,配置价值提 | | --- | --- | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | | 2. | 《2026年银行业策略:高股息 | | | 为盾,静待价值修复》 | | | 2025.12.31 | 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -8.5 -7.5 -22.3 绝对收益 -3.3 -5.0 2.2 相关研究: 核心要点: 结构性政策工具降息落地,助力稳定银行负债成本 国务院新闻办公室于近日举行发布会,介绍货币金融政策支持实体经济高 质量发展成效,并发布一批货币金融政策。 2025.12.31 行业评级:增持(维持) 本轮结构性工具调整主要包括两个方面:一是各类再贷款利率从 1.5%下调 到 1.25%,二是结构性工具额度增加与范围扩大。其中, ...
医疗耗材行业周报:第六批国家组织高值耗材集采开标-20260118
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-18 13:18
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The medical consumables sector saw a slight increase of 0.62% last week, while the broader pharmaceutical and biological sector decreased by 0.68% [4] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the medical consumables sector is 37.38X, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 2.69X [5][16] - The sixth batch of national high-value medical consumables procurement opened on January 13, 2026, involving 12 types of medical consumables with 227 companies participating [6][19] Industry Performance - Over the past month, the medical consumables sector has shown a relative return of 6%, while the absolute return over the last 12 months is 19% [3] - The sector's performance compared to the CSI 300 index indicates a slight underperformance of 0.11 percentage points last week [4][9] Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - The recent procurement rules emphasize clinical value and innovation over low pricing, which may benefit small and medium enterprises by providing a survival and growth space [6][22] - The procurement results are expected to be implemented by May 2026, allowing patients to access reasonably priced and quality-assured products [20][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong cost control and innovation capabilities, particularly in the fields of rehabilitation and chronic disease management [7][23] - Recommended companies include those with rich product lines and high innovation levels, such as Huatai Medical and Weier Medical, as well as orthopedic consumables companies like Weigao Orthopedics [7][23]
稀土磁材行业周报:产业链价格维持强势,关注年报预告窗口下的业绩支撑-20260118
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-18 12:46
证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 产业链价格维持强势,关注年报预告窗口下的业绩支撑 相关研究: | 《稀土出口管制加强支撑板块估值上行,产 | | | --- | --- | | 业链价格强势上涨》 | 20260111 | | 《本周行业反弹,矿端及轻稀土链价格拉 | | | 涨》 | 20260104 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 13 -4 65 绝对收益 18 -1 90 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:王攀 证书编号:S0500520120001 Tel:(8621) 50293524 Email:wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点: ❑ 市场行情:本周稀土磁材行业上涨 2.95%,跑赢基准 3.52 pct 据 Wind 数据,本周1稀土磁材行业上涨 2.95%,跑赢基准(沪深 300)3.52 pct。行业估值(市盈率 TTM)回升 2.25x 至 82.16 x,当前处于 91.5 ...
家电零部件行业延续领涨,智能厨电行业快速发展
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-18 12:22
行业研究 家电行业周报 证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 家电零部件行业延续领涨,智能厨电行业快速发展 相关研究: | 1.《国补落地,关注CES新品催化》 | | --- | | 2026.1.11 | | 2.《春节错期致1月白电排产总体 | | 增长》 2026.1.2 | | 3.《内需主导,国补政策延续》 | | 2025.12.14 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -0.2% | 2.7% | -13.0% | | 绝对收益 | 3.1% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:张弛 证书编号:S0500525110001 Tel:17621838100 Email:zc08241@xcsc.com 分析师:李育文 证书编号:S0500523060001 Tel:021-50295328 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点: ❑ 本周家电行业下跌 0.34%,家电 ...
中药行业周报:关注基药目录调整最新进展-20260118
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-18 12:17
证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 ❑ 上游中药材:短期市场人流量减少,2025 年全年因供给扩张致市场震荡下行 行业研究 中药行业周报 根据 wind 数据,中药材周价格(2026.01.06-2026.01.12)总指数为 227.02 点,较 前一周基本持平,十二个中药材大类同比呈现"4 涨 8 跌"态势,植物皮类药 材价格指数跌幅居于榜首。近期总体来看,中药材市场人流量减少,商家购销 谨慎。从 2025 年全年来看,年初价格指数为 256.21 点,年末为 226.90 点,全 年下跌 29.31 点,整体呈现震荡下跌态势,主要原因在于前期中药材市场牛市 催生产能无序扩张,形成供需错配。未来中药材行业有望加速向规模化、标准 化、品牌化转型。 关注基药目录调整最新进展 核心要点: ❑ 市场表现:上周中药Ⅱ下跌 1%,表现居中 根据 wind 数据,上周(2026.01.11-2026.01.17)医药生物报收 8657.19 点,下跌 0.68%;中药Ⅱ报收 6350.32 点,下跌 1%;化学制药报收 13328.75 点,下跌 2.4%; 生物制品报收 6427.7 点, ...
茅台价格重塑,全面推进市场化转型
Xiangcai Securities· 2026-01-18 08:55
证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 | 1.《高端白酒的供给侧改革》 | | | --- | --- | | 2025.12.13 | | | 2.《白酒创新求变,关注战略定 | | | 调》 | 2025.12.21 | | 3.《CPI温和修复,消费早春将至》 | | | 2026.01.11 | | 行业评级:买入(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -6.2 -10.4 -29.4 绝对收益 -2.9 -5.6 -5.3 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:李育文 证书编号:S0500523060001 Tel:021-50295328 Email:liyw3@xcsc.com 分析师:张弛 证书编号:S0500525110001 Tel:17621838100 Email:zc08241@xcsc.com 茅台价格重塑,全面推进市场化转型 相关研究: 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点: ❑ 1 月 12 日-1 月 16 日,食品饮料行业下跌 2.10% 根据Wind, ...