Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the utility sector, specifically in electricity [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth in electricity consumption, with May 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in total electricity usage. The first five months of 2024 saw an overall increase of 8.6% compared to the same period in 2023 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the severe power supply and demand situation expected during the summer of 2024, predicting a peak load increase of 10-13 million kilowatts compared to 2023, primarily due to high temperatures and a high base of electricity consumption [12][15]. - Recommendations include a diversified portfolio of low-covariance assets, focusing on companies like Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and China Nuclear Power, among others [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Consumption Trends - In May 2024, total electricity consumption increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries growing by 10.3%, 6.8%, and 9.9%, respectively [7]. - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to May 2024 rose by 8.6%, with significant contributions from all sectors [7][9]. - The report notes a significant improvement in water supply for hydropower generation, with May's hydropower output increasing by 38.6% year-on-year [9][10]. 2. Summer Power Supply and Demand Challenges - The report warns of a tight power supply situation during the summer, with the highest electricity load expected to increase significantly due to high temperatures [12][15]. - The report indicates that the installed power generation capacity has not kept pace with the rising demand, with only 38.33 million kilowatts added from August 2023 to April 2024 [13][15]. - It suggests that coal power will need to maintain high growth rates to ensure adequate electricity supply [15]. 3. Recommended Investment Portfolio Performance - The recommended portfolio, which includes Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and others, saw a weekly increase of 1.11%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.26 percentage points [17]. - Year-to-date, the recommended portfolio has risen by 29.49%, significantly outperforming the broader market indices [17]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the sector, with recommendations for companies like China Power and Huaneng International, indicating a "Buy" or "Hold" rating based on their projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [19][20].
公用事业2024年第25周周报：5月用电量增速强劲 夏季电力供需严峻
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-06-24 06:00