电力行业2024年中期策略报告：煤电一体化专题：产业链延伸促成长，一体化运营稳业绩

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the power industry, consistent with the previous rating [2] Core Views - Coal and coal-fired power are both in a relatively tight supply cycle, with coal production growth slowing down and entering a decline phase [2] - The "Two Joint Operations" policy is being promoted to balance energy security and low-carbon transition, aiming to stabilize the profitability of coal and power companies [2] - Coal-power integration helps extend the industrial chain, stabilize operations, and improve profitability by leveraging internal coal supply and long-term contract advantages [2][24] Industry Background - Coal production growth has slowed, with a 2.9% increase in 2023 and a -3.5% decline in the first four months of 2024, indicating a tight supply cycle [9] - Coal-fired power projects have accelerated approvals and construction due to power shortages, with 153.20GW of new projects approved and 165.06GW started in 2022-2023 [12] - Peak load is expected to grow by 100GW in 2024, driving continued growth in coal-fired power capacity despite potential peak electricity consumption [12] Policy Background - The "Two Joint Operations" policy encourages coal and power companies to integrate, aiming to stabilize energy supply and support the transition to low-carbon energy [15] - Long-term coal contracts have historically had low fulfillment rates, leading to high volatility in coal and power company profits [15] - Recent policies have improved long-term contract fulfillment and allowed for more flexible electricity pricing, but challenges remain in balancing market and planned pricing mechanisms [15] Coal-Power Integration Models - Mergers and acquisitions: Examples include the 2017 merger of Guodian Group and Shenhua Group to form China Energy Investment Corporation [26] - Equity investments: Since 2009, major power companies have actively acquired coal mine equity to stabilize fuel costs [28] - New investments: Coal companies have shown strong interest in investing in new coal-fired power projects, with 31.20GW of new projects approved and 41.14GW started in 2022-2023 [32] Company Analysis Single Business Transition to Coal-Power Integration - Xinji Energy: Transitioning from coal to coal-power integration, with 2350MW of coal capacity and 5960MW of planned power capacity, expected to complete the transition by 2026 [35] - China Shenhua: A leading coal company with 4316MW of coal-fired power capacity, 78% of which is supplied by its own coal, providing a cost advantage [38] - Shaanxi Energy: A state-owned enterprise with 2400MW of coal capacity and 9180MW of power capacity, with high self-supply ratios for coal [41] - Inner Mongolia Huadian: A regional power leader with 11400MW of coal-fired power capacity and 1500MW of coal capacity, achieving a 55% fuel self-sufficiency rate [44] - Suneng Co: A newly listed company with 1830MW of coal capacity and 2700MW of power capacity, with significant growth potential in both coal and power sectors [47] Synergistic Operations with Parent Companies - Guodian Power: A leading power company with 71774MW of coal-fired power capacity, benefiting from long-term coal supply agreements with its parent company, China Energy Investment Corporation [50] Financial and Operational Comparisons - Coal-power integrated companies show higher and more stable profitability per kilowatt-hour compared to traditional coal-fired power companies [3] - These companies generally have lower debt ratios and greater financial flexibility, with stable cash flows supporting future dividends [3] - The market has not fully recognized the value of coal-power integration, leaving room for valuation upside compared to pure coal-fired power, hydro, and nuclear power companies [3]