宏观研究报告：货币政策的坚持与善良

Monetary Policy Insights - The recent discussions at the Lujiazui Forum suggest price controls may be aimed at quelling market expectations for future quantitative easing (QE) amid failed interest rate cut expectations, indicating a hawkish stance on monetary policy[4]. - Despite the hawkish appearance, the actual monetary policy remains accommodative, with the R007 rate returning to its lowest level since October 2022, signaling a shift towards easing[4]. - The central bank's potential reduction or exit from the MLF tool could indicate a future focus on direct government bond purchases, diminishing the role of MLF[4]. Economic Trends - Current macroeconomic stability is supported by a global inventory cycle, but the potential decline of this cycle is a critical variable to monitor[5]. - Manufacturing investment growth has declined for two consecutive months, suggesting limited upward momentum for the economy in the near term[4]. - The risk-off sentiment in major asset classes reflects the lack of conditions for a trend reversal, compounded by the belief that policies will not remain passive[4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - In the context of liquidity constraints, a risk-off approach is recommended, with a preference for interest rate bonds as superior assets[5]. - Equity markets may show limited performance due to unresolved credit issuance issues, but opportunities exist in sectors like exports and environmental protection[5]. - For credit markets, there is potential for city investment credit to reach historical lows in credit spreads, although real estate credit remains uncertain[5]. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index stands at 2998.14, while the Shenzhen Component Index is at 9064.84, indicating current market performance levels[6]. - The ongoing trend in interest rate bonds suggests sustained market activity, with a neutral duration strategy advised while being cautious with long-term bonds[5].