国金数字未来实验室数字景气系列：投资者恐慌情绪蔓延、市场或将反弹？

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the impact of investor sentiment on market volatility and asset prices, highlighting the importance of sentiment analysis in predicting market trends and optimizing investment strategies [12][27]. - A personal investor sentiment index has been constructed based on sentiment analysis of stock forum posts, indicating that when the sentiment index approaches a low point (Bottom), investor sentiment is pessimistic, while a high point (Top) indicates optimism [12][28]. - The sentiment-based timing strategy, described as "sell when the crowd is loud, buy when it is silent," has shown potential to significantly enhance investment returns and reduce risks, with a backtest indicating a return of 7.9% since 2024 compared to a benchmark return of 0.8% [12][34]. Group 2 - The sentiment index has demonstrated a notable decline in its upper and lower bounds, from 0.8 in 2010 to around 0.2 in 2024, indicating a faster pace of sentiment shifts among investors [42]. - The report suggests that the current market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, indicating a potential for market rebound in the near future, as evidenced by the sentiment index dropping below the Bottom threshold [54]. - The methodology for constructing the sentiment index includes data collection from stock forums, sentiment scoring of titles, and calculation of the sentiment index based on a defined formula [41][28].