2024年1-5月快递行业跟踪点评：618带动件量增长，竞争压力仍待缓解

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the express delivery industry has maintained rapid growth, with a total of 655.9 billion express deliveries completed from January to May 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [3]. - The average revenue per express delivery ticket decreased to 7.85 yuan in May 2024, down 12.21% year-on-year, indicating significant pricing pressure in the industry [3]. - The report notes that the cancellation of pre-sales during the 618 shopping festival has led to a balanced increase in delivery volumes, but also a decline in price levels [3]. - The report suggests that the strong growth momentum in retail consumption and online sales is expected to continue, driven by seasonal demand for fresh produce and the impact of the 618 festival [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 195,236.9 billion yuan from January to May 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [2]. - The proportion of online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.7% of total retail sales, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period [2]. Express Delivery Metrics - The express delivery business revenue totaled 5,371.1 billion yuan from January to May 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [3]. - In May 2024, the express delivery business volume reached 147.8 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [3]. Competitive Landscape - Major express delivery companies such as SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO saw significant year-on-year growth in business volume in May 2024, with increases of 14.04%, 32.68%, 29.47%, and 27.60% respectively [3]. - The market concentration index (CR8) for express and parcel services was 85.2 from January to May 2024, indicating a slight increase in market share for Shentong [3]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the proactive reforms of leading companies in the industry, particularly Yunda and YTO, as they adapt to the competitive pressures and pricing challenges [3].