化工系列研究（二十一）：从财务指标透析化工产能出清几何

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [40]. Core Insights - The overall capacity of the basic chemical industry is still in the early stages of clearing in 2023, with intense competition persisting. Despite a peak in capital expenditure in 2022, both ROE and cash flow have shown a downward trend in 2023, leading to a contraction in capacity [7][38]. - Certain sub-industries have shown faster capacity clearing, with leading companies recovering profits more quickly. Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Xinfengming, as well as Yun Tianhua in phosphate chemicals and Juhua Co. in fluorine chemicals [38][39]. Summary by Sections Financial Indicators - Three financial indicators were selected for analysis: capital expenditure/depreciation and amortization, ROE (diluted), and net cash flow from operating activities/revenue. These indicators help assess the capacity clearing situation in the chemical industry over the past decade [5][7]. - The capital expenditure/depreciation ratio has decreased in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating better capacity control in certain sub-sectors [7][9]. Sub-sector Analysis - The polyester sector has seen a significant reduction in capital expenditure, with leading companies like Tongkun and Xinfengming showing improved ROE in 2023, reflecting a stronger competitive landscape [12][10]. - The fluorine chemical sector, particularly in refrigerants, has experienced a decline in capital expenditure, yet leading companies like Juhua have shown a recovery in ROE [21][22]. - The adhesive and tape sector has also seen rapid capacity clearing, although profitability varies significantly among companies [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sub-industries with rapid capacity clearing and strong recovery in leading companies, such as polyester, phosphate chemicals, and fluorine chemicals. Other sectors like coatings and adhesives are also worth monitoring for potential recovery [38][39].