财政数据点评（2024.5）：发债加速但缺口难平，歉收压力应如何填补？

Revenue Insights - In May, the general public budget revenue was 15,986 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, a slight improvement from April's decline of 3.7%[1] - Non-tax revenue increased by 15.8% year-on-year, significantly up by 10 percentage points from the previous month, supported by profits from state-owned assets and financial central enterprises[1] - The value-added tax (VAT) growth turned positive at 4.0%, improving by 13.6 percentage points, primarily due to the easing of high base effects from previous tax deferrals[1] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure growth declined by 3.5 percentage points to 2.6% year-on-year, with significant reductions in education, culture, and health expenditures[1] - Despite a concentrated issuance of ordinary government bonds in May, the accumulated revenue-expenditure gap remains challenging to fill, indicating a need for more robust fiscal measures[2] Debt and Investment Dynamics - Local government debt issuance accelerated by 10.8 percentage points compared to April, but remains significantly slower than the same period in 2022 and 2023[6] - The issuance of special bonds and particularly long-term special government bonds has started, but the high standards for project profitability may hinder significant acceleration in infrastructure investment growth[6] Fund Budget Performance - Government fund income saw a year-on-year decline of 22.2%, marking a 15-month low, with land transfer income dropping by 27.4%[21] - The expenditure from government funds decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe due to last year's low base and an increase in special bond issuance[21]