Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the long-term trend of a slow bull market in A-shares remains unchanged, despite short-term pressures from trade tensions [1][8] - The report highlights that the structural recovery of A-share profits and potential credit recovery are key factors supporting the slow bull trend [8][13] - Short-term adjustments in A-shares are viewed as opportunities for low-position layouts, with limited adjustment pressure on the fundamentals [13][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the reasons behind the current round of US-China tariff tensions, including China's restrictions on rare earth exports and the ongoing negotiation dynamics [7][8] - It notes that the potential imposition of additional tariffs by the US may serve as a countermeasure against China's export controls on rare earths, reflecting a strategic negotiation tactic [7][8] - The report emphasizes that the impact of tariffs on exports is expected to be less severe than in previous instances, due to an optimized export structure and resilient domestic consumption and investment [13][20] Group 3 - The industry allocation analysis suggests a balanced style in the short term, while the technology sector remains favored in the medium to long term [15][20] - The report indicates that sectors such as large finance, rare earths, agriculture, and innovative pharmaceuticals may perform relatively well in the short term due to their defensive attributes [20][22] - It also highlights that the technology sector, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence and robotics, continues to receive policy support and is expected to maintain a favorable position in the long term [16][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][35] Core Views - The report highlights the construction of a computing power ecosystem by OpenAI, emphasizing the strategic partnerships and significant investments in AI infrastructure [1][3] - OpenAI has entered a four-year, multi-billion dollar chip supply agreement with AMD, which includes the provision of hundreds of thousands of AI chips to build a total of 6 GW of AI computing infrastructure [3] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in overall computing power, projecting a growth of up to 100,000 times by 2035, driven by general artificial intelligence [3] Summary by Sections Stock Recommendations - Preferred stocks show a relative return of 15.58% over 1 month, 33.37% over 3 months, and 51.57% over 12 months [2] - Absolute returns are 19.44% over 1 month, 48.5% over 3 months, and 67.05% over 12 months [2] Industry Performance - The electronic industry experienced a weekly decline of 2.63% from October 6 to October 10, 2025 [6] - The semiconductor sector, particularly integrated circuit packaging, showed a positive trend with a 1.57% increase [9] High-Frequency Data Tracking - TV panel prices are expected to stabilize due to healthy inventory levels and controlled production by leading manufacturers [17] - Memory prices, including DDR5 and DDR4, have shown an upward trend, with DDR5 prices rising from $8.242 to $8.577 and DDR4 from $21.038 to $21.750 during the specified period [20]

2025 年 10 月 11 日 策略类●证券研究报告 十月慢牛趋势不变，风格难改 定期报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 节后资金表现或有望略趋活跃，但震荡分化 与局部活跃并行或暂时未改-华金证券新股 周报 2025.10.7 节 后 慢 牛 延 续 ， 科 技 和 周 期 占 优 不 变 2025.10.7 华金研究 10 月金股 2025.9.29 小长假前波动略有加剧，短周期新股板块或 延 续 震 荡分 化 走 势 - 华 金 证 券新 股 周 报 2025.9.28 科技和周期行业中报盈利改善 2025.9.27 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 复盘历史，10 月 A 股表现偏震荡，主要受政策和外部事件、流动性、基本面等因 素影响。（1）10 月 A 股市场表现偏震荡：2010 年以来的 15 年中有 8 次上证综指 10 月上涨。（2）政策和外部事件、流动性、基本面等 ...

Group 1 - The new stock market is experiencing a slight increase in volatility before the holiday, with short-term new stock sectors likely to continue a trend of oscillation and differentiation [1][11] - The average increase of new stocks listed since 2024 is approximately -0.8%, with about 28.5% of new stocks showing positive returns [1][27] - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to heighten external uncertainty, impacting market sentiment and pricing indicators, which are currently at relatively high historical levels [2][11] Group 2 - Recent new stock issuance has seen an average price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2X, with a low average subscription success rate of 0.0216% [4][21] - The first-day average increase for newly listed stocks was about 207%, indicating stable trading sentiment, while the average increase for the first week was 178.3% [24][25] - The sectors showing the most significant gains include semiconductor equipment and AI application themes, while those with the largest declines are primarily stocks that had previously shown high activity but have recently lost momentum [27][29] Group 3 - Upcoming new stocks include companies like Ruili Kemi and Yunhan Xincheng, with average issuance price-to-earnings ratios for new stocks expected to be around 19.9X [3][31] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relative value, particularly in new energy, consumption, and non-ferrous metals, as well as long-term themes like robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of flexibility in investment strategies due to the anticipated market volatility surrounding the holiday [38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected increase in stock price greater than 15% relative to the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [33]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of 12-inch silicon wafers, which are widely used in various types of chips including NAND Flash, DRAM, and logic chips [7][24]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with projected revenues of 1.055 billion, 1.474 billion, and 2.121 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 408.29%, 39.73%, and 43.95% [9][24]. - Despite the revenue growth, the company has reported net losses, with figures of -411.8 million, -578 million, and -737.6 million yuan for the same years, indicating a need for improved profitability [9][24]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved operating revenues of 1.055 billion yuan in 2022, 1.474 billion yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 2.121 billion yuan in 2024, with year-over-year growth rates of 408.29%, 39.73%, and 43.95% respectively [9][24]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -411.8 million yuan in 2022, -578 million yuan in 2023, and is expected to be -737.6 million yuan in 2024, with year-over-year changes of -18.56%, -40.34%, and -27.63% [9][24]. Industry Situation - The global market for electronic-grade silicon wafers is projected to grow from 8.7 billion USD in 2017 to 11.5 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.07% [15][16]. - The demand for 12-inch silicon wafers is expected to increase significantly due to the rise of artificial intelligence applications, which require enhanced data processing and storage capabilities [24][19]. Company Highlights - The company is positioned as the largest producer of 12-inch silicon wafers in mainland China and the sixth largest globally, benefiting from strong shareholder support and a skilled management team [25][24]. - The company has established a robust technical system across five core processes and has achieved product quality levels comparable to the top five global manufacturers [8][25]. - The second factory is expected to be operational by 2026, which will increase the company's total capacity to 1.2 million wafers per month, meeting 40% of the domestic demand for 12-inch silicon wafers [27][25]. Investment Project Input - The company plans to invest 1.2544 billion yuan in the second phase of its silicon industry base project, which aims to expand its production capacity significantly [28][27]. Comparison with Peers - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.121 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 43.95%, while its net profit is expected to be -737.6 million yuan, a decline of 27.63% [29][30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][39] Core Views - The global AI infrastructure construction is entering an accelerated phase, with significant investments from major companies like NVIDIA and Alibaba [1][4] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing high growth, particularly in AI-related applications, with a focus on domestic chip supply chains [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of AI and semiconductor industries as transformative technologies for the next decade, predicting a tenfold increase in total computing power by 2035 [4][19] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 3.51% from September 22 to September 26, with the semiconductor equipment sector leading at 15.56% [7][8] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a slight decline but remains in a rebound channel since April 2025 [12][17] Key Company Updates - NVIDIA plans to invest up to $100 billion in AI infrastructure for OpenAI, with a deployment of at least 10 GW of systems expected by late 2026 [4] - Micron Technology reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $11.32 billion, a 46% year-over-year increase, with DRAM revenue at $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year [4] - Alibaba is advancing its AI infrastructure with a planned investment of $380 billion, aiming for a tenfold increase in data center energy consumption by 2032 [4] Price Trends - DRAM prices are on the rise, with DDR5 prices increasing from $6.927 to $7.475 between September 22 and September 26 [23] - TV panel prices are expected to remain stable in September, with adjustments in production to balance supply and demand [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the entire domestic chip supply chain, including companies like SMIC, Huahong, and Cambrian [4] - Continued attention is recommended for the AI PCB industry chain, with key companies including Shenghong Technology and Huadian Technology [4]

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in the fourth quarter, with increased volatility, following a strong performance in the third quarter led by technology stocks [3][4] - The market is likely to experience a structural recovery in earnings and continued credit repair, supported by a resilient export environment and steady growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment [3][4][19] - Key sectors to focus on include technology, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, with a balanced style favoring both large and small-cap stocks [4][5] Market Trends - The third quarter saw a bull market with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market leading gains, driven by liquidity easing and improved risk appetite [10][14] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to maintain a low-level recovery in earnings, with potential inflows from foreign investment and new funds, although IPOs and sell-offs may increase [4][5] - The overall market valuation is currently neutral to high, with supportive policies likely to sustain risk appetite [4] Industry Allocation - Technology remains the main focus for investment in the fourth quarter, with significant opportunities in core assets and cyclical sectors [5] - Recommended sectors for attention include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), machinery, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, military industry, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials [5][19] - The market style is expected to be balanced, with large-cap and small-cap stocks performing well during periods of structural recovery in earnings and credit [5][54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][38] Core Views - The AI and semiconductor industry is experiencing a high growth trend, with Huawei announcing a three-year roadmap for AI chip development, including the launch of several new AI chips from 2026 to 2028 [4] - The report highlights the continuous growth of global AI infrastructure and the increasing demand for customized AI ASIC chips [4] - Investment opportunities are identified in the domestic chip supply chain, including companies involved in design, manufacturing, and testing [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector has shown strong performance with a relative return of 10.65% over 1 month, 25.96% over 3 months, and 68.02% over 12 months [3] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 17.25%, 43.11%, and 108.88% respectively [3] Key Developments - Huawei has launched several AI products, including the Ascend 910C AI chip and various AI supernodes and servers [4] - Nvidia has invested $5 billion in Intel, acquiring 215 million shares, which represents 4.91% of Intel's total shares [4] - Microsoft is building two AI data centers in Wisconsin with a total investment of $7.3 billion, expected to be operational by early 2026 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the entire domestic chip supply chain, highlighting key companies such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, SMIC, and others [4] - It also suggests monitoring the AI PCB supply chain, with specific companies like Shenghong Technology and Huadian Holdings being of interest [4] Market Trends - The semiconductor sector has shown a positive trend, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising from 6,059.83 points on September 15 to 6,232.24 points on September 19 [12] - The report notes that the semiconductor equipment sector had the highest increase among sub-sectors, rising by 9.98% [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The semiconductor packaging and testing industry is experiencing significant growth driven by AI and advanced packaging technologies, with major players focusing on creating one-stop solutions for packaging and testing [1][5] - Key companies such as Jiayuan Electronics and Weicai Technology are increasing their capital expenditures and expanding high-end testing capacities, reflecting strong demand across various applications [2][5] - The overall gross margin for the domestic packaging sector has shown a notable increase, with leading companies like Huada Technology and Liyang achieving higher margins compared to the industry average [11][12] Summary by Sections Overview - The gross margin for the semiconductor packaging sector has significantly improved, reaching 21.44% in Q2 2025, which is higher than the average for previous quarters [11][12] OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) - Daylight Technology's advanced packaging revenue has surpassed 10% of its total, with a recovery in general business observed [17] - Anke Technology reported a revenue of 10.779 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a 14.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, driven by strong demand in various markets [30][31] - Powertech Technology's revenue reached 4.226 billion RMB in Q2 2025, reflecting a 16.56% quarter-on-quarter increase [39] Testing - Jiayuan Electronics has significantly increased its capital expenditure, with a 149.64% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025 [2][3] - Weicai Technology has seen strong revenue and profit growth in H1 2025, driven by the increasing demand for high-end testing services [5][20] Equipment - AI continues to be the main driver for industry growth, with strong demand for TCB, hybrid bonding, and SoC testing equipment [5][21] - ASMPT reported a 50% year-on-year increase in TCB equipment orders in H1 2025 [5][23] Market Trends - The smartphone market is experiencing regional differentiation, with strong growth in specific areas such as the Middle East and Africa [6][28] - The automotive sector is showing positive trends, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, while traditional fuel vehicles are stabilizing [6][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in packaging, testing, and equipment sectors, including Daylight Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and ASMPT, among others [5][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the semiconductor industry [4]. Core Insights - The semiconductor packaging sector has shown significant improvement in gross margins, with leading companies like Huada and Liyang experiencing notable growth [12][13]. - AI continues to be the primary driving force behind industry growth, with major OSAT players focusing on advanced packaging solutions [6][18]. - The report highlights the strong performance of key companies such as Tongfu Microelectronics and ASE Technology, driven by robust demand in AI and automotive electronics [50][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - The gross margin of the semiconductor packaging sector has significantly increased, surpassing levels seen in 2024. In Q2 2025, the gross margin reached 21.44%, up 4.52 percentage points from the previous quarter [12][13]. 2. OSAT - **ASE Technology**: In Q2 2025, ASE's revenue reached 132.13 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.68% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.55%. The advanced packaging and testing business has shown strong growth, accounting for over 10% of total revenue [18][19]. - **Anke Technology**: Reported revenue of 107.79 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3.42%. The company is expanding its testing capabilities and focusing on advanced packaging solutions [31][39]. - **Powertech Technology**: Achieved a revenue of 42.26 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.56%. The company is set to restart significant capital expenditures to expand its production capacity [40][44]. 3. Testing - **King Yuan Electronics**: Capital expenditures surged to 26.62 billion RMB in Q2 2025, reflecting a 149.64% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 474.34% year-on-year increase. All application segments reported growth [2][29]. - **Weichai Technology**: Continued to enhance its high-end testing capacity, with strong revenue and profit growth in H1 2025, driven by AI and automotive electronics [5][35]. 4. Equipment - AI remains the main driver for industry development, with significant growth in TCB, hybrid bonding, and SoC testing machines. ASMPT reported a 50% year-on-year increase in TCB equipment orders in H1 2025 [5][4]. 5. Market Trends - The smartphone market is experiencing regional differentiation, with strong growth in specific areas such as the Middle East and Africa. The PC market saw an 8.4% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q2 2025 [6][11]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in packaging, testing, and equipment, including ASE Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and ASMPT, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing advancements in AI and semiconductor technology [6][50].