IVD&医疗服务行业2024年度中期投资策略：优选细分成长，布局预期改善

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the IVD and medical services industry [6][8] Core Views - The medical services sector is under short-term pressure due to high base effects, but aging demographics continue to drive long-term demand growth [2][4] - The CXO sector faces short-term challenges but is expected to improve with easing macro pressures and growth in advanced technology segments [3][33] - Private hospitals, especially in specialized fields like ophthalmology, show strong potential for chain expansion and market concentration [4][51] - The IVD sector is expected to see a turnaround in 2024, with growth in respiratory and glucose monitoring segments [5][8] Industry Performance and Trends Medical Services Sector - The medical services sector experienced a recovery in 2023 but faced pressure in Q1 2024 due to high base effects [13][16] - Aging demographics are driving increased healthcare demand, with the 65+ population reaching 15.4% in 2023 [19][22] - China's healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP remains low compared to developed countries, indicating significant growth potential [23][24] CXO Sector - The CXO sector saw a decline in revenue and profits in 2023 and Q1 2024, primarily due to reduced demand from COVID-related CDMO services [35][36] - Capacity expansion has slowed, aiding in the digestion of existing capacity and benefiting leading companies [39][42] - Advanced technology segments like cell and gene therapy CDMO, peptide CDMO, and ADC CDMO show strong growth potential [46][47][49] Private Hospitals - Private hospitals recovered strongly in 2023, with significant revenue and profit growth, but faced pressure in Q1 2024 due to high base effects [51][52] - Ophthalmology and other specialized medical services are well-positioned for chain expansion and market concentration [63][64] IVD Sector - The IVD sector is expected to see a turnaround in 2024, with growth in high-end segments like chemiluminescence and molecular diagnostics [5][8] - Respiratory disease antigen testing and continuous glucose monitoring are high-growth areas with strong domestic substitution potential [5][8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-growth segments such as generic drug CRO, ADC CDMO, and peptide CDMO in the CXO sector [8] - Pay attention to private hospitals with strong brand advantages and potential for chain expansion, particularly in ophthalmology [8] - Monitor the IVD sector for opportunities in respiratory disease testing and continuous glucose monitoring [8]