策略周观点2024年第22期：陆家嘴论坛开幕，科创板改革再进一步

Market Indicators - During the week of June 17-21, A-share major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index experiencing the largest decline of 2.03%, followed by the ChiNext Index at -1.98%. The Sci-Tech 50 Index was the only one to rise, gaining 0.55% [36][51]. - The average daily trading volume in the two markets for the week was 7,106.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.40% compared to the previous week. The electronic sector was the most active, with a trading volume of 7,117.29 billion yuan, followed by the computer and power equipment sectors at 2,867.64 billion yuan and 2,675.54 billion yuan respectively [5][10][51]. Liquidity Indicators - As of June 21, the total capital inflow in the A-share market was 8,271.22 billion yuan, with a net outflow of large orders (BBD) amounting to -677.65 billion yuan. Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 161.19 billion yuan during the week, with buy transactions totaling 2,121.39 billion yuan and sell transactions at 2,282.58 billion yuan, marking a significant week-on-week increase of 26.31% in outflow [25][28][51]. Valuation Levels - As of June 21, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the Sci-Tech 50 Index was at a historical percentile of approximately 57.85%, the highest among major indices since 2010. In terms of industry valuation, only six sectors exceeded the historical 50th percentile based on current dynamic PE ratios [41][13][51]. - The report indicates that several industries, including non-bank financials (52.56%), coal (58.85%), and basic chemicals (60.39%), are above the historical 50th percentile in terms of PE ratios. Conversely, sectors such as social services, power equipment, and environmental protection are below the historical 10th percentile [13][12][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that promote new productive forces, equipment upgrades, and policies encouraging the replacement of consumer goods. It also notes that the growth sectors are showing improved sentiment, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) space, which is attracting capital [18][51].