传媒深度分析：2024年暑期档前瞻-24年电影市场的票房驱动力和档期行情

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The global film market recovery is below expectations, with China leading in box office performance. In the first five months of 2024, China's box office reached 216 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a 20% decrease compared to the same period in 2019 [3][12] - The "schedule" market has shifted from left to right, with market expectations generally low before the summer season, leading to a preference for realizing performance expectations after box office results are confirmed [3][17] - The development status and policy direction of the film industry indicate a lack of head films in the first half of 2024, but improvements in content supply are expected by 2025 due to policy encouragement for investment in the film industry [3][21] Summary by Sections 1. Global Film Market Recovery - China's film market is currently the largest and fastest recovering globally, with ticket sales recovering to 77% of 2019 levels by week 24 of 2024 [12][14] - The box office for popular holiday periods has returned to pre-pandemic levels, while regular viewing demand remains significantly lower [12][14] 2. Film Sector Market Review - The "schedule" market has shifted, with significant changes in how market expectations influence investment strategies [17][19] - The performance of key holiday periods has a substantial impact on the A-share film sector [17] 3. Current Status and Policies of the Film Industry - There is a shortage of head films, with only 188 films released in the first five months of 2024, and no films exceeding 4 billion yuan in box office [21][24] - The industry is encouraged to innovate in content creation and to attract more investment [21][24] 4. Changes in Viewing Consumption Behavior - Female audiences have become the main force in the film market, accounting for 57.7% of ticket purchases in early 2024 [43][45] - The age demographics of viewers indicate a need to target both younger (20-24 years) and older (40 years and above) audiences [45] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong project pipelines and performance elasticity, such as Wanda Film, Maoyan Entertainment, and Light Media [3][48]