5月财政数据点评：收入承压遇上地方化债

Revenue Performance - From January to May 2024, general budget revenue totaled CNY 9.7 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.8%, indicating a widening decline compared to previous months[1] - Tax revenue for the same period reached CNY 8.0 trillion, down 5.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 10.3% to CNY 1.6 trillion[1] - The completion rate of general budget revenue for the first five months was 43.3%, below the five-year average of 45.2%[1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Major tax categories showed varied performance: domestic VAT at -6.1%, domestic consumption tax at 7.2%, corporate income tax at -1.7%, and personal income tax at -6.0%[1] - Land-related taxes, such as urban land use tax and arable land occupation tax, grew by 12.7% and 21.4% respectively, although land sales revenue dropped by 14.0%[1] - Stamp duty revenue fell by 18.6%, with securities transaction stamp duty down 50.8%, reflecting a pessimistic market outlook[1] Expenditure Trends - Total expenditure increased by 3.4%, slightly above the five-year average, driven primarily by infrastructure-related spending[1] - The fastest-growing expenditure categories included agriculture, forestry, and water affairs at 12.0%, and urban and rural community affairs at 9.5%[1] - Social security expenditure rose by 6.7%, with its share of total expenditure at 17.2%, higher than the average since 2011[1] Broader Fiscal Context - Broad revenue decreased by 4.1%, with general public budget revenue and government fund revenue declining by 2.8% and 10.8% respectively, largely due to reduced land sale income[1] - The progress of new special bonds issued was only 29.8%, significantly lower than the average of 43.3% from 2019 to 2023, indicating slow project initiation[1] Future Outlook - The pace and sustainability of infrastructure investment are under scrutiny, with expectations for increased fiscal and infrastructure spending concentrated in the second half of the year[1] - The issuance of CNY 1 trillion in special bonds is planned to be spread out from May to November, suggesting a delayed fiscal stimulus[1] - Risks include potential unexpected adjustments in fiscal policy and slower-than-expected revenue and expenditure rhythms[1]