银行资负跟踪：降息预期落空，资金面有所收敛

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The expectation of interest rate cuts has not materialized, leading to a tightening of liquidity in the market [15][23] - The central bank conducted a total of 398 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.80%, with a net injection of 335 billion yuan [15][23] - Government bond net payments for the current period were 115.25 billion yuan, with expectations of approximately 151.67 billion yuan for the next period [15][23] - The funding rates have increased, with DR001, DR007, DR014, and DR021 rising by 21.2bp, 12.8bp, 30.0bp, and 18.0bp respectively [15][23] Summary by Sections 1. Interest Rate Expectations and Liquidity - The central bank's operations included 398 billion yuan in reverse repos, with a net injection of 335 billion yuan, indicating a return to neutral liquidity levels [15][23] - The government bond net payment is expected to remain stable, suggesting potential fiscal expansion in the second half of the year [15][23] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank's actions reflect a focus on maintaining liquidity amid tax period disturbances, with a significant amount of reverse repos set to mature [23][26] - Market interest rates have shown mixed movements, with some rates increasing while others have decreased, indicating a complex market response [26][29] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) has seen a weighted average interest rate of 1.99%, with a high issuance scale of 950 billion yuan [15][17] - The bond issuance from commercial banks totaled 250 billion yuan, with a significant amount of outstanding bonds in the market [17][19]