专题 | 新湖宏观金融(黄金)专题:黄金基础及分析框架

Demand Insights - As of Q1 2024, global gold demand totaled 1,101.84 tons, with jewelry accounting for 48.55% of this demand[38] - Central bank purchases reached 290 tons, representing 26.3% of total demand, surpassing investment demand at 199 tons (18.02%) for the first time since 2014[42] - China and India together accounted for over 50% of global gold consumption, with China at 37.24% and India at 17.26%[43] Supply Dynamics - Global gold production has stagnated, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.1% from 2018 to 2023, while total mined gold increased from 386 tons in 1900 to 3,644 tons in 2023[12] - The top ten gold mines contribute 9.4% of global production, with the largest mine, Nevada Gold Mines, producing 85.84 tons in 2022[36] - Gold mining is characterized by long lead times, often requiring 1-10 years for exploration and development[53] Price Influencers - Gold prices are primarily influenced by U.S. monetary policy, with lower real interest rates supporting higher gold prices[9] - The correlation between gold prices and U.S. real interest rates has historically been negative, but recent trends show gold prices rising despite increasing rates, indicating other influencing factors[30] - Central bank gold purchases have surged, with a net purchase of 1,060 tons in 2022-2023, significantly higher than the 509 tons average from 2011-2021, providing upward pressure on gold prices[26] Market Trends - The demand for technological gold applications has rebounded by 10% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by advancements in the electronics sector[2] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has accelerated the trend of de-dollarization, prompting countries to increase gold reserves for stability[6]